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23 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
1/ Many bulls were surprised about the relatively low # of Teslas delivered in Q3 in Europe🇪🇺

I believe most all shipped have been delivered, and the # wasn't low at all.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ However, it's always a question how many unfilled orders have slipped to Q4. According to my *channel checks*, there have been a few from even early Q3 slipping into Q4, especially M3LR. We can say that Q3 demand was strong.
3/ But Q4 orders have been slow so far. Maybe the ~€2k price hike was too much for many. If you order a car today, you'll likely get it in November.
4/ Note that I'm currently not in the #nodemand camp. Most all other BEVs have wait times of 3-15 months, only Tesla delivers within a few weeks. That should drive a lot of extra demand in Tesla's way. Let's see how many they ship.
5/ Also, many might want to wait for "cheaper" MIG MY. Although I don't think costs would be lower, Tesla should decrease pricing to boost demand.

This doesn't apply to M3 though so M3 demand should not be impacted.

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More from @fly4dat

fly4dat Profile picture
4 Mar
1/ This is how $STLA's reg credit situation with $TSLA looks like.

There is still $476M (€400M) left for this year. After 2021, the CO2 party in Europe is over.

$TSLAQ
2/ As you can see, $TSLA has recognized way more credit revenue than what $STLA recognized as cost. This means that either a) $TSLA sold credits in the US and China in meaningful amounts to others, or b) recognized revenue earlier than $STLA recognized the costs.
3/ For 2019, China credit revenues must have been negligible for $TSLA. The US reg credit market was and continues to be weak. Many OEMs let the credits expire.

In 2020 $TSLA sold Chinese credits in meaningful amounts, but not even close to $622M.
Read 8 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
7 Jan
Congratulations @elonmusk for becoming the richest person and richest fraudster on Earth! I've summed up the combined lifetime revenues and wages paid by all your companies and compared them to your net worth (+42.0%). Doesn't make sense? Neither does your net worth

$TSLA $TSLAQ
This person suddenly sends low-paid workers on unpaid leave at Christmas bc of "retooling" (would have cost maybe a million?). Orders them to work during a pandemic. Factories are dangerous, filled with systemic racism.

revealnews.org/article/inside…
Any and all his "profits" come from governmental sources like regulatory credits: selling other car-makers the right to pollute the planet. He has raked in tens of billions of subsidies from the average taxpayer but criticizes subsidies for others.

forbes.com/sites/alanohns…
Read 7 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
2 Jan
BREAKING: #Tesla misses its yearly delivery forecast by 500,450 units maybe, 450 units definitely & its Robotaxi forecast by at least 1,000,001 units.

1/
$TSLA $TSLAQ

businessinsider.com/elon-musk-hedg…
2/ Tesla has made 12.5k more Model 3's than it has sold in 2020, even after having started the year with ample inventory. #Tesla isn't production constrained, it's demand constrained.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ #Tesla had at least 635k stated production capacity, accounting for shutdowns (and a bit more). We know that in reality, Shanghai made more than stated capacity. That's 80% utilization. Skoda runs at 120%. $TSLA isn't production constrained, it's demand constrained.

$TSLAQ
Read 9 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
22 Dec 20
1/ Now that I’ve reached 4206.9 followers, I thought it’d be time for a *short* historical overview.

I’ve joined Twitter in October of 2018. I had a specific reason in mind regarding $TSLAQ, so I wanted to become part of the community.

$TSLA
2/ But I haven’t planned my presence for long. Hence my handle: I wanted something I couldn’t emotionally relate to. @fly4dat sounded like something even below neutral. Who likes flies anyway? Not even flies do in some cases.
3/ First, I was trying to add value by finding some strange stuff, of which, at that time, have been way more than now.

Lots of speculation about M3 ramp-up, SuX refresh (LOL), and the evergreen scams: FSD, the Semi, the Roadster.
Read 21 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
22 Dec 20
1/ ICCT came out with their October European analysis. Bottom line: Daimler, FCA/Tesla/Honda and VW don't look good, Ford-Volvo not too close while the others are close to the target.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ However, if you look close enough, October #'s are usually much closer to the targets (that vary by OEM! as their car sizes and other parameters vary too) than yearly averages. Based on that alone, Nov/Dec will help pretty much everone better than average reach targets.
3/ For example, look at Daimler: their share of electrified vehicles has doubled during the year.

Oct figures don't include models like Volvo XC40, Renault Twingo, Fiat 500e, VW ID.4 and others that will add to Nov-Dec data, while most others have a strong EOY push.
Read 7 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
1 Dec 20
1/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s have started to come in.

Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -50% YoY but will get somewhat less bad with more countries reporting).

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
2/ More #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s are in.

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -39% YoY).

Expect DE, PT, LU tomorrow, UK on Fri, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
3/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s now include DE and detailed CH

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -33% YoY).

Expect LU and UK tomorrow, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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