SMART MONEY DISTRIBUTE/ACCUMULATE [Part I]
🧵/1. One of the main newcomers' questions (particularly the mid-term players) is, "When does #SmartMoney sell/buy?". in a series of Quicktakes, we will utilize onchain & #FuturesMarklet metrics to estimate the dist/accum phases Image
🧵/2. First, Let's look at the pair of A: 30D MA of Binary CDD 🔵and B: % of UTXO in Loss 🟠.
Distribution: A>0.85 & B<4% 🟩(OLD COIN SELL- EUPHORIA)
Accumulation: A<0.40 & B >40% 🟥(OLD COIN DORMANT - FEAR)

live 📈:
cryptoquant.com/quicktake/6179…
🧵/3. 30D MA Binary CDD is a metric to gauge old coins’ spending intensity (distribution) compared to its last 30D MA.

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More from @CryptoVizArt

5 Nov
ARE WE AT DEC 2020 (ROCKET-LUNCH) LEVEL AGAIN?
🧵/1. Here in this 🧵we look at the market structure from #onchain & #FuturesMarket perspectives and compare it with Dec 2020, when the price was breaking above the 2018's (20K) ATH for second time!
🧵/2. First, looking at the Monthly-Realized Profit Oscillator, we can see, similar to Dec 2020, market is approximately realizing equal to 5% of the total #RealizedCap monthly. This means we have not witnessed the old coins realizing profit at a concerning rate yet ( >10%). Image
🧵/3. The #FuturesMarket also has the same sentiment that the market had in Dec 2020. The #FundingRate is rising gradually, and #OpenInterest momentum (30D-RSI) has dropped (after reaching a new ATH; 67K) to the same level we saw in Dec 2020; 20K>18K> 🌙(Dec 20) = 67K > 58K > ? Image
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
SELL PRESSURE IN ALL EXCHANGES
🧵/1.To estimate the intensity of in/outflows to/from all exchanges, we can measure the #NetFlow magnitude as % of adjusted supply (excluding lost & +7 year dormant). Here, I calculated the (30D-aggregated #NetFLow to all exchanges/adjusted supply) Image
🧵/2. At the market's 2013-14 & 2017-18 tops, we can see the monthly aggregated #NetFlow to all exchanges reached levels above > + 0.75% of adjusted supply. Image
🧵/3. Reversely, during the bearish periods, we had #NetFlow (withdrawal); - 0.5% to - 0.75%.
Comparing the current market structure with YTD historical data, we can see the #NetFlow levels is similar to Dec 2020 (#BTC ~ 20K); < 0.0%. Image
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov
If I had some time, I would try “A network analysis of a Twitter hashtag.” Then you could see how ridiculous is #shitcoin marketing! First, main accounts start the #XYZ, then so-called genius TAs (famous) promote the new life-changing coin with their charts. SURE it will pump! Image
زمان اضافه‌ای اگر داشتم، با یک مطالعه دقیق ثابت می‌کردم، چطور به صورت سازمان‌ یافته معروف‌ترین اکانت‌های #تکنیکال #شتکوین ی (حتی فارسی زبان) ، سیگنال‌ها رو خودآگاه یا ناخودآگاه، از یک منبع مشترک می‌گیرند. البته که پامپ خواهد شد! اما تاخیر زمانی پیوستن شما به این موج خنده‌دار است
This is a simple article to show how you can study the network
cguibourg.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/tut…
Read 5 tweets
6 Aug
به خدای بزرگ قسم که هیچ دِینی بر دوش شما نیست بابت کار کوچکی که می‌کنم. این وظیفه من در مورد کشورم و هموطنانم است.
اما دلم پر از درد است که ساعت‌ها تلاش‌ می‌کنم. با اشتیاق هزینه فکری و مالی بر خودم تحمیل می‌کنم.
با ۲-۳ شرکت مکاتبه می‌کنم که منت تحریم و ایرانی بودن را بر سر ما می‌گذارند. عملا التماس می‌کنم برای رایگان کردن بخشی از اطلاعاتشان !
در جواب می‌بیینم، مردم پول در جیب حرام لقمگانی می‌ریزید که فخر ماشین و ساعتشان را به شما می‌فروشند.
دروغ‌هایِ این بی شرافتان‌ را که از مسیر خوردن خون شما، اعتبار کسب کرده‌اند، می‌خرند. کسانی که دیروز در اینستاگرام و امروز در منوتو و فردا … خدا داند کجا، پروموت می‌شوند.
بدانید از این پیشنهادها و قول پول‌ها به افراد پر مخاطب زیاد انجام می‌شود.
Read 6 tweets
3 Aug
🧵/1-Due to the innovative approach towards #BTC price valuation based on #Scarcity, the #S2F model by @100trillionUSD has attracted a lot of attention in the community since 2019. After the recent market's 50% drop, the S2F_price deflection from Market_price caused a huge debate
🧵/2- I have two theories for this descending behaviour in the #S2F deflection graph.
A- The #S2F model is only a function of Scarcity. However, Scarcity can be exaggerated/neutralized by other factors such as wealth distribution's equality in the network; Gini Coeff
🧵/3- Therefore, if we redefine the S2F model to include the Gini Index, we can improve the price prediction performance (lower deflection). Gini Coeff calculation requires T3 data offered by @glassnode (I don't have them)
news.earn.com/quantifying-de…
Read 9 tweets
31 May
1/10-Going through the 2nd week of the biggest corrections of this cycle (~ 50%), the ultimate questions in market are,
-Whether the cycle is over?
-How are the Exchange Flow conditions?
-What is the picture that on-chain metrics are giving about market in long-term?
🧵🔽
2/10- All-Exchanges Reserve has been declining since the beginning of this bull market. This trend was then upward on April 24th after prices dropped 64K > 50K [1A] = on-chain bearish sign.
3/10-Overall increasing level of bitcoin reserve on exchanges was due to Derivative-Exchanges (@Binance, @Bitrex )[1B]. The interesting point to notice here was the uninterrupted downtrend of bitcoin reserve on Spot-Exchanges (@Coinbase, @Kraken)[1C].
Read 26 tweets

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