Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #S2F

Most recents (7)

1/5 Price and value are like cousins that hang out together *most* of the time. Value is honest and #PriceIsALiar. This is the true model I use to assess #bitcoin value. It is a little more complicated than simply v=n*(n-1)/2.
2/ Metcalfe's law is predictive of #bitcoin price. An example of this was posted at "Using Metcalfe’s Law To Forecast Digital Asset Returns"
3/ There is more to testing Metcalfe's law than calculating n*(n-1)/2 and comparing the result to price. In fact, the calculation is more nuanced than that and involves other variables. Metcalfe grouped these effects into a term called "Affinity."
Read 7 tweets
🧵/1-Due to the innovative approach towards #BTC price valuation based on #Scarcity, the #S2F model by @100trillionUSD has attracted a lot of attention in the community since 2019. After the recent market's 50% drop, the S2F_price deflection from Market_price caused a huge debate
🧵/2- I have two theories for this descending behaviour in the #S2F deflection graph.
A- The #S2F model is only a function of Scarcity. However, Scarcity can be exaggerated/neutralized by other factors such as wealth distribution's equality in the network; Gini Coeff
🧵/3- Therefore, if we redefine the S2F model to include the Gini Index, we can improve the price prediction performance (lower deflection). Gini Coeff calculation requires T3 data offered by @glassnode (I don't have them)…
Read 9 tweets

Bitcoin'i değerli kılan önemli özelliği nadir olması ve yıllar geçtiktçe daha da nadirleşecek olmasıdır. Gelin buna ünlü kripto analisti #PlanB'nin Stock to Flow (#S2F) modeli ile bakalım... 🧵
Nadirlik, elde edilmesi zor, masraflı veya elde edilmesi imkansız olarak açıklanabilir. Bitcoin'e baktığımızda 21 milyon ile sınırlandığını ve şu an 2009'dan bu yana sadece 18.7 civarı Bitcoin'in dolaşımda olduğunu biliyoruz.
Stock to Flow'a gelecek olursak, bir varlığın toplam rezervinin yıllık üretimine oranıyla ortaya çıkan değer o varlığın toplam rezerve kaç yılda ulaşılacağını gösteriyor. Bu da onun S2F değeri olmuş oluyor. Buna gelin dünyanın en yaygın saklama varlığı Altın tarafından bakalım.
Read 11 tweets
تشکر رضا جان بابت این سوال عالی ...
۱- دو مدل معروف برای تخمین این ارزش واقعی #بیتکوین از بازار‌های مالی دیگر وجود دارد.
مدل اول، #S2F که مبنای محاسباتش، ذات #بیتکوین در ذخیره ارزش است؛شبیه طلا. این مدل ارزش حال بیتکوین را ۱۰۰ هزار دلار می‌داند.…
۲- مدل دوم، ارزش #بیتکوین را از روی حجمی دلاری که بر بستر شبکه آن منتقل می‌کنند، محاسبه می‌کند. مشابه شرکت #paypal یا #Visa !
این مدل، #NVT، قیمت واقعی یا ارزش #بیتکوین را ۵۵ هزار دلار تخمین می‌زند.

حال این انتخاب شماست که مدل‌های ریاضی را مبنا قرار بدهید یا صرفا «حس» شخصی.
Read 4 tweets
1/ During the last two #Bitcoin bull cycles, price bottoms and tops fluctuated around halving dates in an almost equal ratio. If this relationship were to hold true, we still have more than 570 days of bull market ahead of us, with a cycle top coming in around Sep 2021.

🚀🚀🚀 Image
2/ It is still the big question whether Bitcoin´s bull and bear markets take longer each cycle or oscillate around halving cycles. While there are enough good reasons to suggest that cycles are lengthening over time and
3/ likely converge with macro cycles at some point in the future, imo, gravitation around halvings could still be maintained for a while, especially in the early adoption phase of Bitcoin (see #s2f model).

While a sample size of two bull markets is by far too small
Read 5 tweets
Do any altcoins have a relevant relationship between #S2F and their value?
I downloaded 77 data sets from #coinmetrics and let stata perform #S2F #cointegration testing whenever possible.
What surprised me most, was that of these 77 #altcoins, most did not even have a #S2F ratio, as they are premined. In other cases market capitalization was unavailable in the coinmetrics data set.
Read 8 tweets
1/ I realized that my last article about #bitcoin's diminishing returns and volatility was a bit too long. I'll try to make it a bit shorter, in tweet form, here.…
2/ Conclusions of the article:
- #btc grows slower and slower, long-term
- short-term volatility decreases over time
- these trends should continue in the future due to ever higher capital requirements Image
3/ Diminishing returns implies much lower future #btc prices compared to NON-diminishing returns.
Bitcoin's power-law corridor of growth used diminishing returns. We'll see more evidence for diminishing returns here.… Image
Read 25 tweets

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