To Glasgow, today, for #COP26, with the floods in Cumbria bringing a distinct feeling of déjà vu...
Six years ago, just after the last massively important UN climate summit (in Paris) got underway, Cumbria was at the centre of another big flood, caused by Storm Desmond and a couple of close relatives
Some of the imagery is very familiar - Carlisle 2015, Keswick 2021
Why does Storm Desmond stick in the memory? Because it happened during a summit trying to plot a way out of dangerous climate change - and while the summit was still in progress, scientists showed climate change had made it more likely to happen ft.com/content/e14669…
So far, this year's extreme weather has been less damaging than in 2015, which saw, jointly with 2009, the most damaging floods in Cumbria for centuries theguardian.com/environment/20…
And so far there's no scientific analysis linking this one specifically to climate change
Still; there is no dispute anymore that climate change is making many extreme weather events more common and more intense eciu.net/analysis/repor… - literally well into the hundreds now in terms of scientific analyses
...and in some cases, such as the North American wildfires, the scale of the weather extreme would have been virtually impossible without man-made climate change - that's not me saying it, it's science worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-…
It seems like the weather is calming down here, and affected Cumbria starting to dry. But seeing those pictures - or trying to travel through the region - I won't be the only #COP26 delegate making the link back to the last crucial UN climate summit and feeling the déjà vu
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Now #COP26 is upon us it's noticeable how many political journalists are writing and broadcasting about it, which (speaking as a former science and environment hack who spent many hours inside the BBC arguing for climate change coverage across the board) is very welcome
But... something is going slightly awry, and I want to highlight it now before the serious stuff begins
This is not the UK's summit, nor @BorisJohnson's summit. Leaders of other nations will not set climate policies according to what he asks them to do. The most important consequence of failure to make progress will not be Boris Johnson's reputation
Odd how? Firstly, because almost no-one is now talking about a meat tax. Why? Because a bunch of research over the last few years has shown how eye-wateringly unpopular it would be - so it's basically off the political menu
For example the recent Citizens' Assembly concluded dietary changes should be voluntary and achieved through education and choices, not compulsion - helping local farms along the way, and not penalising the poor climateassembly.uk/report/read/fi…
Important new paper from the man whose work @thegwpfcom cites as evidence that offshore wind costs are not falling, clarifying that his work shows nothing of the kind sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Two years ago John Aldersey-Williams of @redfieldconsult and @RobertGordonUni showed that the apparent levelised cost of electricity from operating offshore wind farms, derived from company accounts, was in some cases higher than the strike prices agreed in recent #CFD auctions
That paper covered wind farms commissioned as far back as 2003 (North Hoyle), long before the current competitive #CFD auctions came in. It found no trend in costs, either up or down, instead concluding that costs varied between individual projects depending on circumstances
Pleased and proud to be launching today the first systematic assessment of #NetZero targets across nations, states & regions, cities and corporates, asking not only how far they cover emissions, population and GDP, but how rigorous they are
Undoubtedly the day's biggest news bar none... President Xi Jinping says China '...aims to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060'. It's the world's biggest carbon emitter, so it matters - in several ways
(By the way, because translations can lose important nuances I've pasted the wording above straight from Xinhua, which ought to know) xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0…
First, China is the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas which causes climate change, and of all greenhouse gases put together
Few thoughts on Making Mission Possible, the bumper #netzero report out this morning from @ETC_energy
As the title implies the Commission (which includes a vast array of super-sized businesses such as Tata, Shell, Rio Tinto...) concludes global #netzero is abundantly possible, and govts and businesses should set course for it - 2050 for richer nations, 2060 for the remainder
(That's compatible with the #ParisAgreement 1.5ºC commitment btw, as they're talking about neutrality for all greenhouse gases not just CO2)