Thread by @_richardblack

Now #COP26 is upon us it's noticeable how many political journalists are writing and broadcasting about it, which (speaking as a former science and environment hack who spent many hours inside the BBC arguing for climate change coverage across the board) is very welcome

But... something is going slightly awry, and I want to highlight it now before the serious stuff begins

This is not the UK's summit, nor @BorisJohnson's summit. Leaders of other nations will not set climate policies according to what he asks them to do. The most important consequence of failure to make progress will not be Boris Johnson's reputation

The No10 spin machine appears to be framing the summit as an event where Boris asks other leaders to deliver and - so far - where they are falling short. But that's just not how these things work

It’s a distortion and oversimplification that obscures the breadth of ownership and the global significance of the outcome

Every govt comes to a UN summit with its own set of priorities. The summit belongs to them all. The UK as host has a central role in diplomacy - listening to other govts, analysing their asks and red lines, working out what's possible and developing a strategy that can deliver it

But they all have a stake. Each will make decisions according to its own priority list based on factors including its optimum path for economic development, public opinion, business opinion and the views of other nations it cares about

To think that any leader would change course just because the UK Prime Minister asks him/her to is ridiculous. Would Johnson change tack on Hong Kong human rights because Xi Jinping asked him to, or on fisheries because Emmanuel Macron had a word? I don't think so

One of the many consequences of seeing #COP26 as Johnson's summit is it sets up an absurdly simplistic blame game if things go wrong... 'I asked them, but they didn't deliver'. It may be moving in that direction even now - 'The UK did the right thing, but others wouldn't follow'

If #COP26 fails - and what 'failure' means is another whole discussion - it won't be because Boris Johnson asked other leaders to pledge more but they didn't deliver

It will be for a whole complex set of reasons - many developed nations including the UK but led by the US not delivering their fair share of climate finance, the same nations stalling on Loss and Damage, toxic geopolitics with China, #Covid_19's impact on debt...

...the legacy of #Brexit preventing coordinated UK diplomacy with the EU, and so on. This UK government will bear a share of the blame for a whole slew of reasons, from cutting overseas aid to opening coal mines to sometimes tin-eared diplomacy - as will many others

Needs saying too that for the world's poorest nations, the No10 mantra of 'coal, cash, cars and trees' just doesn't work. It's about where's the financial assistance you (the West) promised 12 years ago, where's the goal you promised on helping us adapting to climate impacts...

..., where's the progress on Loss and Damage you promised 8 years ago, where's the debt relief we need post-Covid in order to build our economies back greener... etc

Many, many leaders could justifiably be framing it as 'We asked them (the UK and others) to step up on these issues, but they wouldn't'

Added to which - and thinking primarily of @bbclaurak's preview yesterday bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… - there is no central big deal to be reached. This is not an arms limitation treaty where Reagan and Gorbachev decide to halve their nuclear arsenals

Most of the big pledges - perhaps all - are in already. The negotiated outcome will be a complex and, for the uninitiated, probably perplexing mixture of affirmations, pledges and commitments that might be enough to keep the #ParisAgreement 1.5°C global warming pledge in play

On the sidelines we should see agreements formalised on issues such as phasing out oil and gas production (h/t Denmark and Costa Rica), advancing clean transportation and safeguarding forests - all of which could help advance global progress

But there won't be a Eureka moment. This isn't remotely like #Brexit where the outcome can be shaped by the force of political personality, and it won't be Boris Johnson who gets any agreement over the line anyway - he'll be long back in Downing St by then

As a Briton I'm very glad the UK has finally got around to hosting a @unfccc COP, 32 years after Margaret Thatcher made her pioneering call for a global climate change treaty and 29 years after Sir John Major and Michael Howard put their signatures on it for Britain

But as someone who's been to 10 of these summits as both journalist and observer, I can tell you that this isn't primarily about Boris Johnson getting a deal - it just isn't. Fortunately for journalists, the realities are far more interesting