Thread by @bruce_pullman

A thread on diversification {for consideration by #BTC maximalists:

@glennhodl wrote:

“I am all-in. I think, until you are, your bitcoin-measured net worth is going to be constantly diminishing.

And sure there are less volatile assets out there, but are the really and truly less 'risky'.

I guess it comes down to expectations of how possible/likely it is that bitcoin 'fails', because I don't think there's a scenario where it just meanders along at the same fiat value

for a decade. It's either win massively or lose.

And I just don't find the 'lose' scenarios very plausible anymore”

And @BritishHodl wrote:

"I’m going to write about this today, changing your psychology on how you see investing.

The issue is that diversification is a lie and the goals you’ve been given to focus on are low because then that makes you comfortable to diversify."

To reply to these excellent gentlemen with their well thought through philosophies, I present as an exhibit my history chart of my assets in #BTC

In £ I am close to my all time high, up some 57% since inception 13 months ago. Excellent performance.

If I had aped in 100% into #BTC on day 1, 13 months ago, I would have bought some 320 #btc. And today my fund would be worth..... 320 #btc

But it isn't, and today my fund (with some 60% exposure to #btc) is worth some 100 #btc.

The opportunity cost of not taking that decision is some 220 #btc, or some £7.1m.

Is this a reasonable analysis?

No. I would never have considered putting 100% into #btc on day 1. Its a pipe dream to think I might. I was a newbie in every sense, and felt brave buying some 7% of the fund.

Perhaps I deserve some praise because all of my contemporaries and professional advisors were screaming "don't do it"

And I built slowly as my conviction grew. And I have not bailed out and have even modestly borrowed to support my conviction. Well done, Bruce. Let's hear it!

But looking backs and saying "if only" is a fruitless exercise in investment management. The only interesting decisions are ones we can realistically take now (and perhaps in the future).

I am exposed to around 53.5 bitcoin with a fund worth £4.4 billion. 60%.

Would I contemplate going higher than 60% today? - the most (the only) interesting question - I can't honestly predict how I will feel in 3 weeks at $88k, or 3 months at $131k

I am not a sub 30 year old with no responsibilities and time to heal his or her financial mistakes and mis-playing in the risk chair. Any time now I can expect to marked to market!

I am 64, and death or senility approacheth!

Also I am accountable to family - my heirs - many of whom do not 'get' #btc. And there is a constant toxic background opposition to #btc in the UK media....

So I am not looking to any target return or particularly to grow my portfolio. #btc might fail for completely unforeseeable reasons.

And being worth 50+ #btc is to be huge, I believe, 5 years from now - its feels big already.

So I choose to hedge my bets with equities, precious metals, a low risk hedge fund, a commodities portfolio, fine art, UK residential real estate.

At 60% I sleep comfortably even if #btc does its stuff. If it goes to $8k I can cope. Actually all my worries relate to what do I do at 88k or 131k!!!

Would I, could I be persuaded to go higher? I believe 60k is a very solid floor so it is all upside.

Possibly. I doubt it. I am kind of at my sweet spot. For many complex reasons which are hard to describe.....