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31 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
"....because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."

Donald Rumsfeld on why 60% in bitcoin is enough.....
The unknown unknowns... like I suggest Elon and Doge were unknown unknowns in January 2021
Note: 60% in bitcoin is enough FOR ME. 100% may be right for others. 5% for others - you are the only one who can sit in your risk chair

@FossGregfoss

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More from @bruce_pullman

Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
2 Nov
A reflective thread.

You can become a whole coiner today for $63,333 or £46,435. If I am correct the downside on these purchases is effectively $3,000 or £2,400.

This is already getting out of the realm of possibility for ordinarty people under age 40
In six months time, I expect one #BTC will cost more that $100,000 (£75,000), which puts it out of the range of almost all ordinary people.

Time is not on your side. The target is running away.....
I am reminded of "Margin Call" when Tuld explodes into a rant:

Tuld: I understand.

Rogers: Do you?

Tuld: Do you? This is it! I'm telling you! This is it!

Read 6 tweets
Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
2 Nov
Probably nothing! This pattern will resolve and all indications are bullish on daily and shorter, and macro is great! Image
Yes! Image
It's times like this that justify my @Phemex_official account. 10x long in modest size put on just before first tweet. I don't keep much #btc on Phemex.... Probably a good thing 🤣
Read 4 tweets
Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
31 Oct
A thread on diversification {for consideration by #BTC maximalists:

@glennhodl wrote:

“I am all-in. I think, until you are, your bitcoin-measured net worth is going to be constantly diminishing.
And sure there are less volatile assets out there, but are the really and truly less 'risky'.

I guess it comes down to expectations of how possible/likely it is that bitcoin 'fails', because I don't think there's a scenario where it just meanders along at the same fiat value
for a decade. It's either win massively or lose.

And I just don't find the 'lose' scenarios very plausible anymore”

And @BritishHodl wrote:

"I’m going to write about this today, changing your psychology on how you see investing.
Read 19 tweets
Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
29 Jul
I have just finished leasing a discussion amongst strategic macro hedge fund managers about the concepts of diversification and conviction in managing a portfolio.

Traditional quants in fund management will build models to predict returns over a given horizon say 6 months.
They will also predict risk of each asset class and the inter-relationships between the asset classes.

Then they employ a risk model to determine the likely worst outcome for any given set of percentage asset allocations
An efficient allocation is one which maximises the predicted return for given level of risk (say likelihood of an excessive drawdown)

By deciding how much drawdown can be tolerated, the produce a target allocation and move the portfolio towards it, recognising that because
Read 5 tweets
Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
19 May
People have been asking me – “am I alright?” & “what’s going to happen next?”. Sadly a number of people who I have chatted to about their holdings have been wiped out – a number at 43k, a number at 41k and this morning I have an inbox of people
who have been killed at 5:43 am London when 39k was breached!

I have always advocated those with ‘available fiat’ (cash) to #BTFD. By available, I have always said ‘cash you can afford to lose’.
Most of my correspondents could afford to lose it and are rueful and sore. Even more sadly three are in deep trouble.

Its only a real loss if you have to sell, are liquidated, or are stopped out. My sincere sympathies are with those with real losses this morning.
Read 13 tweets
Britcoin Boomer Profile picture
17 May
My total wealth portfolio has a beta to #btc. This means that, all things being equal, if bitcoin goes up say 2%, my portfolio goes up {2*beta}%. My bitcoin beta was 0.16 at the beginning of March. It is now "irresponsibly long" at 0.34.
Putting it another way. At the moment if #btc goes from 44500 to 64500 my total wealth rises by 15 percent. Which is around $820,000. #hodl #btfd #upmybeta
What is your beta?
Read 4 tweets

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