Ahead of tomorrow's release of new @IEEP_eu @Oxfam @SEIclimate estimates of #carboninequality in 2030, based on the #NDCs...

...Here's a reminder of our work last year, as featured in the @UNEP #emissionsgap rpt 2020 🧵

#COP26 #COP26Glasgow

From 1990-2015, global cumulative emissions roughly doubled. Over half of these emissions (52%) were driven by the consumption of the richest 10% of people, using up 1/3 of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. The richest 1% drove twice as much as the poorest 50% combined...
From 1990-2015, annual emissions grew 60%. The richest 5% of people drove over a third of this total growth. When we plot share of total emissions growth by ventiles of the world population, the curve looks like a dinosaur. Emissions barely grew among the poorest 50%...
We called for COVID-19 recovery funds to tackle inequality & climate together. We showed that per capita emissions of the richest 10% must be 10 times lower than in 2015 by 2030 to get on track to limiting heating to 1.5C, which would cut global annual emissions by a third...
We found about 1/2 the emissions of the richest 10% in 2015 came from citizens in N America & Europe, and about a 1/5 from citizens in China & India. We said the geographic composition is changing fast...
And we pointed to bottom-up studies that help show the sources of emissions from consumption of the richest ... transport being the biggest contributor - the most unequal form of carbon consumption
Stats were cited in Ch 6 2020 @UNEP #emissionsgap rt, by @antonioguterres, @GretaThunberg & others

They capture what we all know intuitively - #climatecrisis is fundamentally a crisis of #inequality - driven by the 'haves', harming worst the 'have nots'

Tomorrow's follow-up rpt estimates what the #NDCs mean for the per capita consumption emissions of global income groups in 2030

It shows the #inequality behind the #emissionsgap - whose consumption is set to drive 1.5C out of reach, without further action?

#COP26 #COP26Glasgow
And here's the thread with findings from the new paper out today

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More from @tim_e_gore

5 Nov
New paper today estimates the per capita emissions gaps for 1.5C of global income groups in 2030, based on NDCs

Richest 1% set for footprints 30x 1.5C-aligned global level
Richest 10% - 9x higher
Middle 40% - 2x higher
Poorest 50% - 2x lower
@IEEP_eu @Oxfam @SEIclimate #COP26
In absolute terms, the consumption emissions of the richest 10% in 2030 are set to nearly amount to the global total in 2030 compatible with 1.5C (18Gt)

The poorest 90% are set to only just exceed that level

This is the #inequality behind the #emissionsgap
We estimate the share of emissions of the richest 1% are set to grow further following the 2015 Paris Agreement - reaching 16% of total global emissions by 2030

#inequality #COP26 #COP26Glasgow
Read 9 tweets
18 Feb
What can we learn from the 'global land rush' about the risks of large-scale land-based carbon removal in climate mitigation strategies?

A 🧵to put the numbers - like #Shell's reference to needing a new 700Mha forest - into some context
700Mha sounds a lot, & it is.

From 2000-2016 - during the 'global land rush' - @Land_Matrix documented contracted large-scale land deals covering c. 25Mha

That period tells us a lot about the risks of large-scale reliance on land for carbon removals
It was driven by financial #speculation, #biofuels policies and weak land tenure #rights, & has been associated with widespread dispossession, increasing land #inequality & #hunger

No surprise biofuels crops - palm oil, jatropha, sugar cane - accounted for the biggest land area
Read 12 tweets
8 Dec 20
Our latest report - 'Confronting Carbon Inequality in the EU: Why the European Green Deal must tackle inequality while cutting emissions' is here: oxfam.org/en/research/co… It builds on our earlier work with @SEIclimate using the same dataset. Here's a thread with the key findings
The EU as a whole was responsible for 15% of global cumulative consumption emissions 1990-2015, but the responsibility was not equally shared among EU citizens. Richest 10% = over 1/4 of the total = about the same as the poorest 50% of Europeans combined
EU consumption emissions fell c. 12% 1990-2015, but these cuts weren't equally shared among EU citizens. Emissions of poorest 50% fell 24%, those on middle incomes fell by 13%, while those of richest 10% actually INCREASED by 3% (and of richest 1% by 5%).
Read 12 tweets

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