I will be posting a #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board which contains information about:
1. On-chain peaking indicator 2. Countdown to projected cycle peak 3. Projected cycle peak prices & price gauges for:
a. Top Cap Model Rebuild
b. Fib Multipliers
c. BLX Model
Notes: 1. On-chain peaking indicators
Peaking indicator shows whether #BTC is peaking but doesn't give the timing. The closer the gauge is to 100%, the more likely BTC is peaking;
In ref. to 2017 Peak & In ref. to 2013 Peak shows how BTC performs in relation to past cycles.
2. Countdown to projected cycle peak
Top Cap Model Date: This is based on the no. of days elapsed between #BTC's mid-cycle correction & its cycle peak in past cycles. Est.: 12/20/21
60D VVOL Date: This is based on BTC's 60-Day Volatility. Est.: 12/29/21
3. Projected #BTC Cycle Peak
For model information, please read:
a. Top Cap Model Rebuild: Pinned tweet 1a
b. BLX Model: Pinned tweet 1b
c. Fib Multipliers Model:
Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. After reaching the top part of the channel, it got rejected & is consolidating around the bottom of the channel. Let's see if will rebound from here.
Slightly bearish.
1b(i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.
𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.
TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.
The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.
BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?
TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.
Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell
MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.
Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.
TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?
1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.