Thread by @AllenAu11

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.

BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.

The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators🧵👇

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟮. 𝟲𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆

#BTC to peak: 24-29 Dec. 2021

In the past, BTC would peak before the Fed began tapering. Though the Fed begins tapering soon, BTC may not peak this month as the Fed will adjust the tapering pace- loose tightening!

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1455115142606114822

𝟯. 𝗨𝗦 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟬𝟱𝟯)
𝗡𝗼, but this metric is wicking up!

* Please read 2(ii)(e) of pinned tweet for details about this metric to determine BTC topping pattern & whether cycle peak is imminent.

4(i) 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (>𝟳.𝟱): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 2.4*

* The chart pattern of this metric is similar to that in 2013 & looks to be on the verge of breaking out along with #BTC's price.

4(ii) 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

5. 𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 (~𝟰𝟳%): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 54%

6(i) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟮): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 0.004*

The Reserve Risk chart pattern is similar to that in 2013. If history rhymes, #BTC's price will move up sharply soon.

6(ii) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

6(ii) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#Bitcoin is on its way to its cycle peak.

7. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 (𝗥𝗛𝗥) (>𝟰𝟬𝗞): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 12392*

* RHR is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The RHR chart pattern looks similar to that in 2013. If history rhymes, BTC's price could move up sharply.

𝟴. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀 (𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲):
𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟭

* It looks like RC HODL Waves has entered Wave 2 of the 3-Wave pattern & this will be accompanied by the next leg up in #BTC's bull phase.

9(i) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 1.41

9(i) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 1.41

9(ii) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#Bitcoin is on its way to its cycle peak.

10. 𝗡𝗨𝗣𝗟 (𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲): 𝗡𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮

10/31: 0.62 (Green)*

* This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The NUPL chart looks similar to that in 2013 (circled in blue). If history rhymes, BTC's price may move up sharply soon.