Thread by @kwasylewsky

An informative/explanatory thread on the situation on the border between #Poland and #Belarus and how #Turkey got entangled in the situation. I feel the need to write this cause I can see that many of my Turkish and Western friends find the situation

difficult to understand, even bizzare, and it's normal that it is on us, the Poles, to explain.

Ok, let me start with the basics. We have a really specific migrant crisis on our border with Belarus. Why is it so unique? Because it is a mixture of two trends. Firstly, we have a

"natural" migration where people want to migrate from the ME & Africa due to various push factors (conflicts, famine, climate etc.). Secondly, we have Belarusian dictator, Lukashenka, who decided to make use of this trend and of people willing to migrate to realise his

political goals. Thus the Belarusian regime lifted visas and did everything it could (you can see more in this documentary by @outrid3rs ) to attract as many migrants as he could to Belarus and then push them, often with force, in the direction of thePolish

border. This is why European politicians say that Lukashenka is weaponising migrants and in this sense the crisis is "staged" by him. Had it not been for him, this migration road would not be existent.

What are his political goals? There are many, I will list just two: he

wants to get EU's sanctions lifted and he wants the EU to pay him for keeping the migrants in Belarus (and if you want to know more on Belarus & Russia policy, you should follow our fabulous experts, such as @Anna_M_Dyner, @ALegucka, @W_Kononczuk or @MarekMenkiszak).

For us, it is important to know that because of Lukashenka's stance - again, because he decided to make use of people's misery to accomplish his political goals - the European countries decided that the only possible response is to defend the borders and increase him the cost

of his aggression. It may sound tricky and it seems inhumane, cause the migrants are the victims of this political game, but apparently the EU decided that it is the only rational way not only to stop this crisis, but also to stop other dictators that would like to follow

Lukashenka's steps from making use of people's misery to achieve political goals.

Ok, now we know this, it's time to ask: how and why the hell did Turkey become seen by the Europeans as a part of the problem?

The problem is that since the crisis began, in July, the number of

flights from Istanbul to Minsk increased significantly - from 7 to 28 per week. Istanbul became important hub for migrants traveling to Belarus and Turkish Airlies flew a lot of them to Minsk. Yes, they had visas and documentary provided by the Belarusian regime,

sometimes they even received them in Belarusian consulates in Turkey, not in their countries of origin. This problem has been raised during discussions between officials, and during joint conference between Polish and Turkish foreign ministers in October Mr. Çavuşoglu signaled

his awareness of the problem, even giving numbers of people who went to Belarus & returned on TA flights.

And then Turkey did nothing to stop this. I don't know the reason of this inaction, but I want to say it clearly: it might not have been deliberate, it might have been a

result of many reasons: bad signaling, different perspective (obviously in Turkey's eyes, a country that produly hosts 4 mln refugees, this is barely a crisis), legal doubts. Whatever it was, the situation on the border changed tremendously during the last few days. The migrants

have been organised in huge columns, some of them trained by the Belarusian officers how to destroy border infrastructure and then they were made to do this. It was an important escalation (it was against the Geneva Convention) and as such it gave the EU more ammo and less legal

doubts to claim that what Lukashenka does may be seen as human trafficking and third countries airlines, among them TA, may be sanctioned for participation in this (please, remember this is just my analytical reading of the events). Hence, the pressure on Turkey & TA increased

dramatically and Turkey's room for maneuver decreased significantly.

Turkey finally decided to help it's Euroepan partners and we are thankful for this, as it may help us calm down the situation a little bit. Could Turkey have helped earlier? I am not a lawyer, so I do not want

to say anything for sure, but I think there is no coincidence that huge European mobilisation occurred especially after the latest events, as they were serious enough to leave legally dubious area.

The situation is far from being resolved. The EU's gamble with Lukashenka is

also very risky and, unfortunately, very painful especially to people on the border. Yet, I believe that should we stay united, we will finally sort this out.

Sorry for any typos & simplifications. I am sure that had I make any mistake, especially in my description of events on

the border or Belarusian regime's policy, I would be corrected by my colleagues such as @Anna_M_Dyner or @W_Kononczuk. After all, our job is to provide accurate info, contrary to the authoritarian regimes, which constantly spread disinformation to destabilise European societies.