Now that #COP26 is over, what lies ahead for resource-constrained, climate battered economies in #Africa? The view from @gyude_moore
“Over 60% of the continent is dependent on some form of agriculture”, he points out. Most of that is rain-fed, with minimal irrigation.
“Any climate disruption has a significant impact on livelihoods. We’re seeing a climate induced famine in Madagascar.”
Heavy spending on R&D on drought resistant seed is vital, @gyude_moore argues, and governments need to own that IP.
“If someone else has the intellectual property, it puts us at a disadvantage.”
“There has been a decline, a noticeable decline in Chinese lending,” @gyude_moore points out. “China is no longer as open to African risk. What does that mean for Africa, because China’s such an important part of our infrastructure financing?”
Prime example of this - #Uganda got no debt for its SGR program. Neither did #Kenya for the second leg of its #SGR project, despite repeated efforts to do so.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
#BrazilGP 20 laps in, 2 safety cars and Lewis Hamilton has gone up 8 laps into P2.
This man can drive!
Hamilton, Verstappen have both pitted. Hard tires for both on lap 28. Hamilton has done the fastest lap of the race so far (+1 point, if he can keep it).
1.13.162, fresh fastest lap from LH44 on lap 30. Hope he can get into DRS range of Max really quickly. Hamilton is 1.5 seconds behind him. #BrazilGP
The fact that bodies like @CAA_Kenya have to make clarifications hours after directives were issued is just one more bit of evidence of either:
[1] really poor inter-govt communication.
[2] an absence of common sense planning.
Or both.
That imposing a limitation on movement in so short a time frame would cause confusion, mayhem, trigger price spikes was wholly foreseeable & avoidable.
So why proceed to do it and leave other parties scrambling to figure out what's allowable & what isn't it?
Why?
🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️
Either way, it's one more chapter in the long, long book of "Communication Fails 101: A case study of avoidable, self-inflicted damage from East Africa."
The fact that such far-reaching restrictions on movement, work, were announced without any financial relief measures in place, really tells you just how disconnected policy making in GoK is, from the reality of millions of citizens.
At the very least, for example, tax incentives should have been restored in an emergency house session. If you’re a hotelier, or a restaurant who was banking on Easter traffic to catch up on your obligations, you’re doubly screwed.
What happens to this sector?
It was not impossible, or difficult, to get the Majority & Minority Leaders, CS Treasury, Budget & Finance Comm Chairs + KEPSA, private sector reps, in one room to thrash out a support package ahead of these restrictions.
First round of restrictions on movement and a curfew in 2020 was a hammer blow to the economy. Millions of jobs lost. Incomes drastically cut. At least back then, we had cuts in personal & corporate income tax, and a 200 bp reduction in VAT to soften the blow.
[1/n]
Remember, it wasn’t by accident that 57.7% of all bank loans in the country were restructured, per @CBKKenya data. If nothing else, that tells you there was a huge amount of financial stress that built up over 2020.
[2/n]
BUT.
[There’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there?]
Treasury asked MPs to end these pandemic tax cuts. Legislators agreed to reset personal, corporate income tax levels back to their 30% top rate, with adjusted bands, on 12/22/2020. That 200 bp cut in VAT? Also gone.
Uhuru Kenyatta: "Fellow Kenyans, we tend to forget quickly."
Uhuru Kenyatta: "You can always revive an economy, but you cannot revive a lost life."
But, politicians [himself included] have largely ignored the same pandemic restrictions he put in place.
#Kenya's President rationalizing the economic cost of the policies he put in place in 2020. Those policies, he says, prevented an average of 2000 lives per day, and average of 1 million cases by end of 2020.
[THREAD] I’ve done a speed pass through some of the highlights, plus the #labor, #health sections of #Kenya’s 2020 Economic Survey. Some observations to follow.
TAXES & DEBT
@KeTreasury’s forecasting total tax collection of KES 1 771.4 Billion by end June. By end March, tax collections stood at KES 1 119.99 Billion.
How can KRA can magically raise KES 651 Billion Shillings in April, May and June. Seriously?
[2/n]
That’s approximately KES 217 Billion, each month, or nearly twice the average monthly collection [KES 124 Billion] between July 2019 and March 2020.
From an economy where consumer spending has drastically contracted. In the middle of a pandemic.