Pretty much a continuation of Jubilee policies, going by some of the economic data points WSR is making here. Education Reform comments are certain to get attention from parents with children in the CBC system. Some initial impressions to follow though. There’s lots of things that do not add up in the economic measures WSR is proposing. He says, on one hand, that he wants to expand the tax base. It’s a worthy goal given that we have a narrow tax base, but *where* is this expansion to happen, and how?

GDP growth forecast at 6%, the Finance Minister says, citing agriculture as one of the key drivers.

Curious. We’re smack in the middle of a nasty drought, so what underpins that expectation of agriculture being a key growth driver?

#Budget2022KE #BudgetKE #Budget2022 5.1 million jobs, cumulatively, created in formal & informal sectors, Finance CS says, since 2013.

What he’s not saying: bulk of those jobs have been created in the informal sector, where job security is scarce, earnings are often lower.

#Budget2022KE #BudgetKE #Budget2022

Mr. Kenyatta’s #SOTN2021 speech was an interesting exercise in obfuscation, given how the data he presented was framed. It can certainly make for interesting course material in future communication course.

THREAD. Mr. Kenyatta would point to spending plans his administration made and/or implemented, but he conveniently ignored the lethal debt mountain he’s built up since 2013. This, IMO, is the key recurring theme in #SOTN2021

#BrazilGP 20 laps in, 2 safety cars and Lewis Hamilton has gone up 8 laps into P2.

This man can drive! Hamilton, Verstappen have both pitted. Hard tires for both on lap 28. Hamilton has done the fastest lap of the race so far (+1 point, if he can keep it).

Now that #COP26 is over, what lies ahead for resource-constrained, climate battered economies in #Africa? The view from @gyude_moore “Over 60% of the continent is dependent on some form of agriculture”, he points out. Most of that is rain-fed, with minimal irrigation.

“Any climate disruption has a significant impact on livelihoods. We’re seeing a climate induced famine in Madagascar.”

The fact that bodies like @CAA_Kenya have to make clarifications hours after directives were issued is just one more bit of evidence of either:

[1] really poor inter-govt communication.
[2] an absence of common sense planning.

Or both. That imposing a limitation on movement in so short a time frame would cause confusion, mayhem, trigger price spikes was wholly foreseeable & avoidable.

So why proceed to do it and leave other parties scrambling to figure out what's allowable & what isn't it?

Why?
🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️

The fact that such far-reaching restrictions on movement, work, were announced without any financial relief measures in place, really tells you just how disconnected policy making in GoK is, from the reality of millions of citizens. At the very least, for example, tax incentives should have been restored in an emergency house session. If you’re a hotelier, or a restaurant who was banking on Easter traffic to catch up on your obligations, you’re doubly screwed.

What happens to this sector?

First round of restrictions on movement and a curfew in 2020 was a hammer blow to the economy. Millions of jobs lost. Incomes drastically cut. At least back then, we had cuts in personal & corporate income tax, and a 200 bp reduction in VAT to soften the blow.

[1/n] Remember, it wasn’t by accident that 57.7% of all bank loans in the country were restructured, per @CBKKenya data. If nothing else, that tells you there was a huge amount of financial stress that built up over 2020.

[2/n]

Uhuru Kenyatta: "Fellow Kenyans, we tend to forget quickly." Uhuru Kenyatta: "You can always revive an economy, but you cannot revive a lost life."

But, politicians [himself included] have largely ignored the same pandemic restrictions he put in place.

[THREAD] I’ve done a speed pass through some of the highlights, plus the #labor, #health sections of #Kenya’s 2020 Economic Survey. Some observations to follow. TAXES & DEBT

@KeTreasury’s forecasting total tax collection of KES 1 771.4 Billion by end June. By end March, tax collections stood at KES 1 119.99 Billion.

How can KRA can magically raise KES 651 Billion Shillings in April, May and June. Seriously?

[2/n]

Health CS: "To the police, the people should be treated humanely. However, we are not going to hold back on the enforcement measured we have so far instituted."

#COVID19KE #COVID19 Kenya's Health CS appeals to Kenyans to minimize contact with the police.

Comment: But when essential staff are being beaten by folks who are behaving like thugs in uniform, how is this adding value to the fight against #COVID19? 🤦🏿‍♂️

In order to provide jobs and provide some certainty for employers and their employees, Kenya's President orders:

[1] Treasury to move to parliament to seek 100% tax relief for anyone making up to KES 24 000.
[2] Reduction of the top Personal Income Tax rate from 30% to 25% [3] Reduction of the top rate of Corporate Income Tax from 30% to 35%.
[4] Reduction of turnover tax rate from 3% to 1%. Covers MSMEs.
[5] Appropriation of KES 10 B for the elderly, orphans and other vulnerable groups, to be distributed via cash transfers.

About 3-4 years ago, Kenya had a chance to be on the cutting edge of setting up drone logistics. We blew it. Spectacularly. Years on, Aviation regulators still clung to "security" objections, and then introduced extraordinarily draconian UAV operation rules.

[1/n] Never mind that #Rwanda was way ahead of the curve in this respect. Vide: , from 3 years ago.

[2/n]

Re: the installation of a #Consul in Nairobi by the National Government.
Random questions.

[1] So who gets appointed to run matters? A political name we're familiar with? A no-name bureaucrat?
[2] Is this a quid pro quo deal? [3] If one end of a quid pro quo deal is Gideon "Sonko" Mbuvi stepping out, what's on the other end of the deal? No prosecution? Dropping of some charges? A quiet retirement?
[4] The statement covers 4 units of the Nairobi County Govt: Health, Transport, Public Works, Planning.

One more observation about Kenya’s real estate puzzle.

Support infrastructure [roads, water, sewer services, schools, green spaces] are still mostly abysmal, *but* land and real estate prices still rise, even in places where these services are absent. Have we gotten so used to not having, or demanding services that we pay for from local and national governments, that we [i.e. land and real estate buyers] just do not care?

At the very least, citizens shouldn’t be paying taxes on account of public services not delivered.

It does appear Kenya’s backed itself into an interesting legal tight spot, on this issue of the VAT exemption on petroleum products coming to an end. This thread will explain why. First, the background, to bring you up to speed.

This VAT on petroleum products story is one entirely of our own making, through our fiscal indiscipline, and inability to fix our own messes without relying on other people's money to bail us out, albeit, temporarily. Let's go back to 2011. @UKenyatta is Finance Minister. Prof. Njuguna Ndungu is the Governor over at @CBKKenya. The Fund agrees to lend us cash to cover some balance of payments issues.