Twin circulations on both sides of the Indian Peninsula decide the fate of #Chennairains now. With the MJO in Phase 3- firmly - indications of an easterly surge and also a low-level circulation would increase the convective activity over #Central and #Northern#TamilNadu
Moderate rainfall for #Chennai to start from the evening. Southern suburbs ECR OMR Region would experience moderate to heavy rainfall from afternoon City will start to get rains from evening. Rains are expected through night and tomorrow it is going to be heavy to extremely heavy
Rains will continue through 19th as well and would start to slowly reduce from 19th evening. 20th also- there would be rains- but would be very sporadic and occasional.
Will it be like last week?- Yes there are high chances.
I am still seeing messages where people are asking whether it would rain as it is being "hyped". Please note that if it doesn't happen we would be the happiest.
But unfortunately - the blogging community on the whole is of the same opinion that there would be heavy rains
#Nellore to #Karaikkal coast to be on high alert as the system is consolidating and the cloud bands are getting organized- slowly and steadily.
This would mean that rains will be more as the system nears the coast
Many asked me that there is not as much rainfall as anticipated. This would be primarily because the system is getting organized slowly and building a strong convective outer band. You can clearly see in the below image
Now that the #rain has stopped for a while in #Chennai, it is time that we get to know what we can expect this week.
1. A Low-pressure area will likely form in the next 2 days in the Southeast #BayofBengal region.
2. Owing to favourable conditions this will further intensify.
3. Preliminary analysis suggests that this system will likely intensify as deep depression and would move towards Coastal #TamilNadu
4. Possibility of this system intensifying into a cyclone exists. Which means a named #cyclone is a possibility
5. Assuming that it becomes a named cyclone, this would be named "#Jawad" named by #SaudiArabia
6. The track that it is likely to take is that it will climb up Northwest - intensify near the coast and move lateral west in between #Chennai and #Pondicherry