Thread by @IsaahMhlanga

Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)

#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)

CPI inflation excluding administered prices is at 3.8%, way below the #SARB @SAReserveBank mid-point of 4.5%. So, if the SARB hikes tomorrow, which i do not think it should and it will, its fighting inflation caused by the government (3/N)

While global inflation is rising, domestic none-tax inflation is muted. Pass through still weak but no one knows for sure as we are in possibly a regime change. #Oil price has been edging up. EM FX coming under pressure from #Fed taper and #commodity price moderation (4/N)

There is no reason to rush hiking rates but conditions are tilting towards a need to control inflation expectations. Likely 4:1 split in favour of no hike tomorrow, followed by a 3:2 in favour of a no hike in Jan 2022, and a 3:2 in favour of a hike in March 2022. Buckle up. (N/N)