Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)
#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)
CPI inflation excluding administered prices is at 3.8%, way below the #SARB @SAReserveBank mid-point of 4.5%. So, if the SARB hikes tomorrow, which i do not think it should and it will, its fighting inflation caused by the government (3/N)
While global inflation is rising, domestic none-tax inflation is muted. Pass through still weak but no one knows for sure as we are in possibly a regime change. #Oil price has been edging up. EM FX coming under pressure from #Fed taper and #commodity price moderation (4/N)
There is no reason to rush hiking rates but conditions are tilting towards a need to control inflation expectations. Likely 4:1 split in favour of no hike tomorrow, followed by a 3:2 in favour of a no hike in Jan 2022, and a 3:2 in favour of a hike in March 2022. Buckle up. (N/N)

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More from @IsaahMhlanga

24 Jun 20
The most important numbers out of the:
Economic growth in 2020 is expected at -7.2% (SARB's is 7.1%)
Revenue: R1.099tn (22.6% of GDP) from R1.398tn (25.8% in Feb)
Expenditure: R1.809tn (37.2% of GDP) from R1.766tn (32.5% of GDP) @TreasuryRSA
Debt costs: R236.4bn (4.9% of GDP) from R229.3bn (4.2% of GDP)
Main budget balance: -R709.7bn (14.6% of GDP)

Primary balance (excl. interest costs): -R473.2bn (-9.7% of GDP) from -R138.7bn (-2.6% of GDP)

Debt to GDP ratio: 82% in 2020/21
The hippopotamus wide jaws (1): growth and employment
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