No Correlation between Excess Mortality 2020 vs 2021 and COVID-19 vaccination level!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
Methodology:
I used the last 6 weeks of available data (40-45) to compare excess mortality of the US states. I took the average of z-scores (how many standard deviations from normal) and compared them to last years value for the same time frame.
I used the last 6 weeks of available data (40-45) to compare excess mortality of the US states. I took the average of z-scores (how many standard deviations from normal) and compared them to last years value for the same time frame.
This z-score delta, I correlated to vaccination levels (1st dose).
There's absolutely no correlation. R2=0.01, p=0.54 (not stat. significant)
There's absolutely no correlation. R2=0.01, p=0.54 (not stat. significant)
It is important in my opinion to use the delta to last year, in order to capture a possible reduction in excess deaths from last year.
If we simply would look at this years excess we'd see correlation (R2=-0.37, p=0.01), but I think that is misleading because it is confounded with the general level of excess mortality, that's higher in certain states.
Sources & Calculations:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Fixed the source for the first chart.
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