Reports of Russian troops' movement near Ukraine have spurred debates about renewed war and fears of provocations in #Donbas as a pretext to it. Our visual explainer shows that the situation in the combat zone is still less deadly than during some past scary periods. Thread 1/12
2/1The number of explosions in Nov. has reached pre-Jul 2020 ceasefire figures. The #OSCE recorded 4400 explosions this month compared to 3750 in Jul 2020. The ceasefire began to shake in spring 2021 amid the military build-up at 🇺🇦 borders and a diplomatic failure with clusters.
3/1 Clusters propose a sequence of actions sides must do to implement the “Minsk-2” agreements. They consist of security/humanitarian and political/economic steps. See the thread about “Clusters” here:
https://twitter.com/Bogdan_Voron/status/1378377004895105029.
4/1 Autumn escalation unfolds amid new build-up and diplomatic failure.🇷🇺 refused to meet in Normandy format due to discord with the conclusions text. OSCE said restrictions to monitors in the "LDPR" areas “have escalated to a new level, effectively preventing SMM’s operations.”
5/1 However, despite the increase in fighting, it is still way less deadly and destructive as 2018-2019 clashes. The fighting has been gradually de-escalating since 2014 with sporadic peaks and local fights along the 430-km contact line.
6/1 Civilian casualties in 2021 (87) decreased slightly compared to 2020 (99), the share of losses from small arms has increased. While the shelling caused less pain in the first half of 2021, in August-October it rose again. (9 casualties in Jan-Jul, 19 in Aug-Oct).
7/1 Civilian casualties concentrated in Horlivka and Donetsk communities, and this fall they increased there. These areas account for more than half of all civilian casualties. They are densely populated and military positions are embedded in them leading to collateral losses.
8/1 Losses from mines concentrated near Siverskyi Donets River in the Luhansk region. The mine-contaminated forested area and river separate the warring sides attract people who fish or collect firewood. Most casualties occurred in the spring, no incidents reported recently.
9/1 The losses of the Ukrainian military as a result of the active fighting in September-October decreased compared to peak casualties in April and August. Russia's proxies did not report serious losses throughout the year.
10/1 The combatant casualties concentrated in areas west of #Donetsk and #Horlivka, northeast of #Mariupol. There was a recent uptick in losses between #Zolote and Siversky Donets. The parties fight for a strategic ledge between the river and the P-66 highway to #Luhansk.
11/1 We compared seven months prior to the July 2020 ceasefire (Jan-July) and the same period in 2021 and found that fatalities among Ukrainian forces increased slightly, and armed groups' losses remained on the same level. Civilian losses significantly decreased.
12/1 For more information about the conflict trends, please visit our Visual Explainer: crisisgroup.org/content/confli… 
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