A new proposal for peace in Eastern Ukraine has been overshadowed by renewed bloodshed btw the Ukrainian army + Russia-backed separatists. Here is a shamelessly long twitter thread:
France and Germany have apparently been working on a new approach to a settlement since November 2020, when it became clear that the warring sides had run out of reasonable proposals to offer.
“Clusters” propose a sequence of actions sides must do to implement the “Minsk-2” agreements. After agreeing on them in the Normandy Four they are passed to the Trilateral Contact Group, where the OSCE moderates negotiations of Ukraine🇺🇦, Russia🇷🇺 with participation of “LDPR”.
German and French advisors Jan Hecker and Emmanuel Bonn see clusters as the framework which should be filled with compromise decisions, writes the Russian Kommersant newspaper. It reportedly consists of security/humanitarian and political/economic steps displayed in the table.
There are 11 clusters starting with ceasefire, disengagement, prisoners swap and full access for the OSCE, the next political “B” cluster says Ukraine implements the “Steinmeier formula”, N4 approves the roadmap and then Kyiv agrees with “LDNR” on the legal acts.
“B” also gives an overview of what Ukraine should do: the constitutional reform on decentralization, adoption of the special status of the non-government-controlled areas (NGCA), law on elections, amnesty and special economic zone. These provisions match the Minsk-2 points. 
“C” security cluster is about the start of foreign troops withdrawal, “D” envisions temporary constitutional reform on decentralization, temporary elections law in the conflict-affected areas and special economic zone.
“E” - the troops withdrawal from NGCA finishes. Security in the now “LDPR” is ensured by joint patrols of 🇺🇦 police, local people’s police with the OSCE SMM. The latter expands its presence along the Russia-Ukraine border in NGCA.
“F” is for permanent action of the law on elections in the NGCA. “G” means local elections and on 8 pm the same day the law on special order of local self-government comes into force.
Security “H” provides the start of Ukraine returning to its border in the NGCA. “I” - law on amnesty comes into force provisionally. “J” - is full restoration of border control.
“K” means constitutional reform, special status of the NGCA, local elections, amnesty and economic zone laws work permanently if the elections in general are held under the OSCE standards.
These Franco-German proposals were expanded with Ukrainian and Russian suggestions which again revealed core insurmountable disagreements between 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺. Kyiv sees Moscow the aggressor, the latter instists Kyiv has an internal conflict in which Russia is a mediator.
On 18 Jan 🇷🇺 MFA Lavrov argued Russia’s participation in the discussion on the roadmap represented a concession in itself. Unexpectedly Kozak appears during the TCG meeting on 21 Jan saying with indignation about the lack of direct talks with "LDPR" lobbying for their roadmap.
Meanwhile on the battlefield, the situation deteriorated. On 21 Jan 1🇺🇦soldier killed, 2 "LDPR" fighters killed on 22-23. From 24 Jan to 15 Feb only🇺🇦forces suffered losses with 4 reportedly killed by snipers. On 14 Feb Kravchuk said that🇺🇦will respond “to shooting with shooting”
There was an artillery attack on 20 Feb. that killed > 8 Russia-backed fighters, but no casualties for some time after that. In general, in Jan 3 killed (all by sniper fire) UA servicemen, in Feb 11 and 9 in Mar. The armed groups casualties also went up during 3 months: 4, 9, 11.
There also was some political reaction in the non-govt-controlled area. DPR head Pushilin says on 20 Jan they can hold another referendum about self-determination. New doctrine about unity of Donbas with Russia presented in Donetsk on 28 Jan with RT editor-in-chief Simonian.
On 3 Mar the "DPR" adopted a decision on preventive fire. Next day Vladimir Putin’s press-secretary Dmitriy Peskov says that the situation can cross a dangerous line. On 10 Mar Russian media spread information about alleged Ukrainian offensive in Donbas that will start on 15 Mar.
On 10 Apr Zelenskyi’s head of the office Yermak said the cluster plan is on the table and waits for Russia to respond to it. In his 16-Mar interview Deputy head of Putin’s administration Kozak called the new plan a myth, and that he is for the full openness of the N4 negotiations
Kozak regretted that Ukraine destroyed joint monitoring of the ceasefire in Sep. He meant joint inspection of “LDPR” regimes and Kyiv, the latter rejected this and urged Russia to return to the joint monitoring mission with Ukrainian officers - the JCCC which it left in Dec 2017.
During 18 March N4 advisors' meeting, Yermak calls for a joint recommitment to the July 2020 ceasefire. Kozak retorts that Kyiv is the side that broke it; calls for 🇺🇦 to give a written commitment to prohibiting its troops from launching return fire w/out orders from top command
The conditions of the July 2020 ceasefire do indeed restrict return fire - which may have contributed to its relative success. Still, Kyiv has been allowing soldiers to return fire in life threatening situations - logical, but counter to the agreement.
Kozak, whose hallmark is apparently a love of written agreements for all occasions, also requested written guarantees of Ukraine sending its response to Franko-German plan and Russian proposals.
On 24 Mar. Russian Kommersant published leaked ‘clusters’ plan. After seeing the text the newspaper concluded that disagreements over the Russian and Ukrainian proposals for clusters would be difficult, if not impossible to overcome.
26 Mar: 4 four killed, 2 injured on the frontline near the city of Horlivka from sniper fire, per Ukrainian military. 30 Mar: Ukraine’s parliament condemns escalation + blames 🇷🇺; Putin talks with Merkel + Macron, without Zelenskyy, and blames 🇺🇦.
At the same time, Kyiv raises concerns about Russian military buildup on its borders;, says its neighbor has28 battalion tactical groups there. The New York Times reports 4 thousand Russian troops near the border with 🇺🇦.
🇺🇸 Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirms support for Ukraine in 1 Apr. call w/ Ukraine’s defense minister Per Kyiv’s readout of the call, Austin said “the U.S. “will not leave Ukraine on its own” to face Russian military aggression.
The U.S. military’s European Command raised its watch level from “possible crisis to potential imminent crisis — the highest level.
On 1 Apr, Lavrov said that "anyone who tries to start a new war in Donbas will destroy Ukraine. " His deputy said the next day that talk of a new war was “fake [news]”, and that Russia was not interested in any conflict with Ukraine, military or otherwise.
The fate of the cluster approach is unclear, esp given the buildup of forces. Meanwhile, socio-economic conditions in the non-government-controlled areas continue to deteriorate, and ties with government-controlled areas continue to wear thin.
Over 600 000 residents of non-government-controlled areas have received 🇷🇺 passports, per media reports. Checkpoints with the rest of 🇺🇦 remain largely closed, contributing to further disintegration. Read our reports on possible ways out of the deadlock: bit.ly/2OoFfS0
#Donbas #Ukraine #Russia #US #NormandyFour #Minsk #Donetsk #Luhansk #Донбас #Україна #Росія #Zelenskyy #Yermak #Putin #Kozak #Biden
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
