Latest @MRC and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the period through 27Nov21. 273k estimated excess natural deaths since 3May2020, 647 in the last week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
At present, no sign of increased natural mortality in South Africa, Gauteng, or indeed Tshwane metro.
p-scores for natural deaths are at interwave lows (8.3% nationally, ranging from -4.5% in Gauteng to 39% in the Northern Cape.
By age, p-scores fell in all age-groups other than 5-19. Deaths are few in this age band, so the p-score inherently unstable. #NotToBeOverInterpreted
Unnatural deaths do what they been doing, literally for months now.
On the testing side, the @NICDsa released its weekly testing report , covering the same period through 27Nov21. Report here: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
These increases are spatially concentrated; even in Gauteng, there is a strong gradient from the northmost healthdistricts of Tshwane, to the southernmost municipalities of Midvaal, and a corridor running through parts of NorthWest and Limpopo
Of even more interest is the age profile of the proportions testing positive. Panel 1 shows the proportions testing positive nationally by age over 8 weeks since October. Most of the increase nationally driven by those under 40.
Infections among adolescents and young adults started increasing some weeks before it did among older adults. This MAY to some extent account for the reported milder disease profile to date, and the somewhat unusual hospitalisation age profile.
The effects (panel2) are even more extreme in Gauteng; while outside of Gauteng (panel 3), the increase still driven by young adults, but at much lower levels (note all figures at same scale).
Proportions testing positive increased markedly in 4 provinces in South Africa (most notably in Gauteng), with big increases in Limpopo, NorthWest, and Mpumalanga. (panel 4)
CLEARLY some big movements in the week to Saturday 27Nov21.
#Omicron is a matter of great concern - obviously. But still so much to ponder. So much still unknown. Stay safe. Be safe. VACCINATE.
@mrc @UCT_news Urg. meant to tag @MRCza. Apologies to the 'other' @mrc.
@nicdsa Oh dear. Really messing up the handles tonight. That was meant to be @nicd_sa, not poor /nicdsa.
Apologies, for the second time

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More from @tomtom_m

29 Nov
On developed country privilege, and the marginalisation of the global South in much of what passes as Covid public science: a view from the South. A thread. 1/20
I do not intend to engage on the topic of the disproportionate and hypocritical treatment meted out by countries of the North to Southern Africa and Southern Africans stemming from the identification of the omicron variant. 2/20
I, and many others far more erudite than I, have already expressed those views (see, for example @tuliodna @_HassanF; @gregggonsalves; @GYamey) 3/20
Read 21 tweets
28 Jul
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report out on excess deaths, covering the period to 24 July 2021. 10 500 excess deaths in the week to 24 July 2021, bringing the total excess natural deaths since 3 May 2020 to 214 000. 130 000 of those in 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
20 000 natural deaths this week, still below the peak of 24 000 at the top of wave 2. Complex pattern may emerge in the next few weeks as Gauteng and its metros decrease, while other provinces (and metros) increase.
Nationally, natural deaths this week 119% of expected. Gauteng 181% (down from 210% last week). P-scores in other provinces increasing: NW (165%); LP (157%); MP (138%). Big increase in KZN to 100% (2x expected deaths), up from 51% last week.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news excess deaths report out, covering the week to 10Jul21. 193k excess natural deaths since 3May20. 7300 in the week 4-10Jul21, up from 6000 in the previous week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Deaths in Gauteng continue to rise, but appear to be nearing a peak in the province; still increasingly quite strongly in Johannesburg. Both substantially higher than in Waves 1 or 2. Natural deaths in Gauteng this week 3x higher than expected.
Western Cape also increasing.
p-scores (excess natural deaths as a % of expected) rising in almost every province. Nationally, natural deaths 80% higher than expected. Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 2x. Western Cape 50% higher than expected.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jul
New @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released, covering week to 3Jul21. 182 300 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 99 500 since the start of the year. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths in Gauteng, as well as its metros, continue to rise. Natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 nearly 3x higher than expected. Weekly natural deaths in the province are at historic highs.
Nationally, natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 were 57% higher than expected (last week 44%), and more than 50% higher than expected in NC and NW (with a weekly decline in the latter). WC natural deaths 25% higher (last week, 17%). A sharp increase in Limpopo (45% this week)
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
A new paper from @mrcZA and @uct_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1<
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
Read 14 tweets
1 Jul
Remember that rather (very!) odd case brought by LFN and other parties to declare pretty much all DMA regulations unconstitutional, and which was judged in their favour by Justice Davis? Well the SCA has given all of those a snotklap: saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA…
"This case, as we will show, is an object lesson as to how a constitutional
challenge to promulgated regulations should not be brought." @pierredevos, for your analysis please!
@pierredevos OUCH. Parallels with @pandata19, much?
Read 5 tweets

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