Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW15 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW15:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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Quite a few people have gone agonizingly close to winning Fantasy5’s £10k weekly prize. Some of the predicted targets this week are even more lenient, so I think this might finally be the week where we have our first £10k winner of the season! Play: 👇🏻

fantasy5.com/football

If you like the numbers and statistics that I post, you can get access to these and the data that I use by signing up through the link below: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar/73

Q: Should Michail Antonio be sold?

Antonio

Gameweek 1-6 v Gameweek 7-14

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 4.2 v 1.5
Big chances: 1.6 v 0.25
xG: 0.96 v 0.19
xGi: 1.5 v 0.4

It’s almost as if Michail Antonio’s numbers (£8.0m) have fallen off a cliff. He has blanked in five...

... consecutive Gameweeks so it’s tempting to sell him. However, I think that that boat has sailed. There are no obvious replacements and there’s also the fact that you would want him ahead of West Ham’s fixture swing in GW16 and would have to use an extra transfer to sell...

... him and then buy him back later should he pick up form.

Q: What to do with Man City midfielders? Which one to buy/sell?

I would simply keep whoever you have this week given the potential that the Man City midfielders have should they start. Man City are ranked by the bookies as favorites for 2.5+ goals this week, so their...

... assets could go big if they start. I would not look at buying any of them this week though, as the risk of a benching is quite high. I think next week might be a better time to buy them as I expect Pep to rest some players in midweek having already secured UCL qualification.

Q: Emmanuel Dennis or Josh King? Who is the better asset?

Since Gameweek 9, Josh King (£5.7m) is top among all players in the league for xG. He’s level on big chances with Salah in this spell which tells you all you need to know! King has played every minute that he has...

... been available for under Claudio Ranieri so far and has had at least one big chance in four of the previous six games. He also scored from the penalty spot recently so there is a good chance he might keep them for the foreseeable. He’s perhaps more nailed than...

... Emmanuel Dennis (£5.4m) in the long run as the African Cup of Nations could impact on Dennis’ availability. Dennis’ numbers have been impressive as well, but King’s are still better. To put things into context, King is averaging 1.5 big chances per 90 under Ranieri as...

... compared to Dennis’ 0.25 since Gameweek 9. Dennis has had nine goals and assists combined in that spell despite having an expected goal involvement of 3.9. This suggests a high level of overperformance. King’s numbers are more sustainable. He would be my pick.

Q: What to do with Harry Kane?

I would keep Harry Kane (£12.3m) this week. He is ranked by the bookies as the favorite to score anytime. His recent run of blanks has frustrated his owners but he has been slightly unlucky in recent times. Under Antonio Conte, Kane has...

... registered four big chance involvements in three Premier League games but is yet to register any kind of return. A move from Kane to Ronaldo is possibly on the cards in Gameweek 16 when Man United’s fixtures turn, especially after considering Ralf Rangnick’s comments...

... last night:

“You always have to adapt your ideas of football – or your style – to the players you have available. Not vise versa. When you see Cristiano yesterday in the second half, at the age of 36, amazing. Top professional. At his age, I have never seen a player who...

... is still so physically fit. He is still a player who can easily make the difference. It is about how we develop the whole team, not only Cristiano. What I saw from Cristiano yesterday, he is more than willing to put his input into the team and his teammates will do the same.”

Q: In this section, I cover budget midfielders.

I really don’t think we have any clear-cut performers in this price range. Emile Smith Rowe (£6.0m) has scored four goals in the previous six Gameweeks but that is despite having a very low xG of 1.17 which makes me think...

... that his output may not be sustainable. Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) and Conor Gallagher (£6.2m) were below par yet again, but I don’t see any budget midfielder standing out with his performances or underlying numbers week in week out so I would...

... give them another week to re-assess before making an informed decision next week.

Q: In this section, I cover Steven Gerrard and his impact at Aston Villa.

Villa have impressed me under their new manager. Defensively, they are posting much better underlying numbers than they were under Dean Smith. Even this week against City, they restricted them to just...

... the single big chance. They are no longer a team to target and I think this will be a difficult fixture for Leicester. It is worth keeping an eye out on Ollie Watkins (£7.4m) who is showing signs of resurgence. He has already scored twice in three games for new Villa boss...

... Steven Gerrard and has a very obliging fixture schedule on his hands. Leicester are ranked 17th for expected goals conceded this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their Premier League fixtures after Gameweek 1 which shows that Watkins could do well again...

... He could also be on penalties considering that Danny Ings has had an injury recurrence while Anwar El Ghazi seems to be out of favor. The caveat to mention here though is that Watkins has scored twice in three games despite registering a nominal xG of 0.38 and without...

... registering any big chances to his credit. However, it’s worth noting that Villa have so far faced some of the better defences in the league in Brighton, Crystal Palace and Man City under Gerrard so it’s hard to read too much into that.

Q: Is Mohamed Salah the auto captain for the foreseeable future?

Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) is in the form of his life and the most reliable captaincy option in the game. Salah is top in the league for shots in the box, xG, expected goal involvement (xGi) and big chances created...

... this season. What also helps is that he is playing for a Liverpool side who are comfortably top for each one of the relevant attacking underlying statistics. This applies to shots, shots in the box, big chances, xG and non-penalty xG. Their attack is creating chances...

... at will at the moment. What makes Salah even more explosive is that he has a high 51% goal involvement rate as well.

Salah’s stats in seasons:

21/22 v 20/21 v 19/20 v 18/19 v 17/18

(Per game)

Shots in the box: 3.3 v 2.65 v 3.24 v 2.5 v 3.14
xG: 0.76 v 0.59 v 0.62 v 0.58 v 0.68
Big chance conversion (%): 61 v 42 v 52 v 48 v 47
Liverpool xG: 2.6 v 2 v 2.1 v 2.1 v 1.9

The volume of chances that he is getting are better than ever before. Critically, he has improved on his finishing which makes him an even more lethal prospect. He has reached auto-captain territory for the foreseeable future and I don’t see any reason to change that this week.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Reguilón is averaging a big chance involvement per game under Conte so far so there’s a good chance of him beating his 8.5 target. No team has conceded more big chances than Everton in the past six GWs so there is a good chance of ESR hauling too!

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