Thread by @baunov

1/16 THREAD: The goal of #Putin at today’s virtual summit with #Biden on #Ukraine is to transfer responsibility for implementing the Minsk agreements from the Europeans and Ukraine to the US.

2/16 To make Biden accept this responsibility, military drills are taking place close to Ukraine’s borders, and Russian troops are massing there enough to launch an offensive. The signal is clear: if the Minsk agreements aren’t being implemented, the alternative is military force

3/16 Peskov’s comments that the Normandy format for talks (Ukraine, Russia, France & Germany) is sufficient & doesn’t require a US presence actually mean Moscow doesn’t see the need for Europe in any serious conversation on Ukraine, & would like to deal directly with Washington.

4/16 This thinking was also behind Russia’s controversial publication of confidential correspondence with French and German diplomats: Moscow is showing that there is nothing to discuss with Ukraine’s advocates, & talks should be held directly with its patron in the US.

5/16 It also explains Lavrov’s complaints that Russia proposed including the US in the Normandy format, but that Germany & France refused, as well as Putin’s calls for guarantees that NATO will not expand further east: something only the US could (but not will) promise.

6/ Putin’s demand shows he is concerned with the Minsk agreements in their broadest interpretation: a chain of actions & obligations that should lead to a Ukraine that is friendly and neutral, but not necessarily subordinate to Moscow: something along the lines of Kazakhstan.

7/16 By massing its troops, Russia is implying that Kyiv’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements is a sign it wants to take back the Donbas by force. Ukraine’s Western allies don’t believe Kyiv would be so reckless, and instead see it as a sign of impending Russian aggression

8/16 The Americans don’t want a war in Europe: it could lead to the defeat of their ally Ukraine, and the need to come back swinging at Russia.

9/16 The impossibility of responding by force & the insufficiency of further sanctions would make America look weak for the second time, following its withdrawal from Afghanistan. In these circumstances, it’s better to work on the Minsk accords.

10/16 Still, Biden can’t just accept responsibility for implementing the Minsk agreements simply because Putin is disappointed in Zelensky and the Europeans—that would mean he was carrying out Putin’s wishes, and he has promised not to give in to him.

11/16 If, during the summit, Biden has to agree to U.S. involvement in resolving the Ukraine conflict, therefore, he will need something in exchange—like showing he has managed to stop Putin and prevent a war: no mean feat, in case Putin really deescalates after the summit.

12/16 Accordingly, the idea of an impending war is beginning to take on a life of its own and have as much impact on the behavior of the parties involved as real events.

13/16 That’s not to say that the danger is entirely virtual, like today’s summit. Handing over responsibility for the Minsk agreements to the US is Putin’s final attempt to resolve the issue of Ukraine before 2024 (when his current term ends) within the existing legal framework.

15/16 If that doesn’t work, Putin, who is consolidating his political and historical legacy ahead of 2024, will look for other ways of resolving the Ukraine crisis. It appears that what he manages to achieve in Ukraine will be a major factor in whether he stays on after 2024.

16/16 From his words, it’s clear that Putin sees relations with Ukraine as part of his historical mission. That’s not something he wants to leave in less experienced hands, nor to share the credit for in the event of success. But what is his plan in the event of failure?