1/10 n fact, the agreement, which at first glance appears to be to Russia’s advantage, is—in its own way—beneficial to all parties. My take of the #NordStream-2 deal carnegie.ru/commentary/850…
2/10 Given Germany’s determination to get the pipeline completed, and Russia’s ability to do so, the agreement has given Russia the chance to do just that without coming under additional pressure, while allowing Germany to do it with the U.S. blessing rather than going against it
3/10 The Biden administration, faced with a done deal, managed at the last minute not to be left standing on the sidelines, but to step up as a friend to some of its allies and a guarantor of the interests of others bit.ly/2VjXuec
4/10 The gas pipeline would have been built and Germany would have tried to ease the situation for Ukraine in any case, but now the United States is the co-author of that effort bit.ly/2VjXuec
5/10 Finally, Ukraine, which could easily have been left with nothing but vague promises, has a written agreement between its allies, half of which is devoted to Ukraine, and which includes specific figures bit.ly/2VjXuec
6/10 There’s no denying that Nord Stream 2 will strengthen Gazprom’s negotiating position. In 2020, 55 billion cubic meters of gas was shipped to Europe via Ukraine: precisely the volume that Nord Stream 2 will add to Russia’s current transit capacity bit.ly/2VjXuec
7/10 But if, on the other hand, Gazprom is going to increase its gas supplies to Europe to 200 billion cubic meters or more, as it hopes, it may be in need of the Ukrainian route as well bit.ly/2VjXuec
8/10 he U.S.-German agreement on Nord Stream 2 can only really be understood amid the context of the transition over to green energy that the EU and United States plan to implement during the next fifteen to twenty years bit.ly/2VjXuec
9/10 That transition should balance out the advantage that Russia has gained just now, and provide the West with new ways to stay competitive. As for Ukraine, the West is trying to compensate it by including it in the Europe-wide energy transition bit.ly/2VjXue
10/10 Russia can either prepare for this new format of relations or, as it has done so far, bank on the green plans of its rivals ending in failure bit.ly/2VjXuec
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