1/8 When Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Geneva this week, he was representing a new Russia. My take of the Geneva summit in a broader context carnegie.ru/commentary/848…
2/8 The new Russia is no longer developing by building Western institutions. Russia will no longer be evaluated according to external criteria. This is why plans for the summit had no impact on the regime’s treatment of the opposition or independent media bit.ly/3q56gs1
3/8 All of Biden’s attempts to shame Putin for the tribulations of Russian opposition were stonewalled with a lack of understanding and counter-accusations. For Putin, there is no longer a system of coordinates in which those reproaches carry any weight.bit.ly/3q56gs1
4/8 What Moscow is proposing is a renewed format of Cold War–era relations, when the two sides operated in full recognition of their obvious differences, contained each other’s expansion, and together wrote the rules needed to avoid a fatal collision bit.ly/3q56gs1
5/8 Putin did not decide not to make any conciliatory gestures ahead of the summit and to present the new Russia unapologetically just because relations with the United States are already at rock bottom bit.ly/3q56gs1
6/8 Another important reason is that the expansionism of Russia and the United States, unlike during the Cold War, is causing them to collide in the new world, where both are perceived as diminishing against the backdrop of other growing powers bit.ly/3q56gs1
7/8 Biden hasn’t forfeited the theoretical possibility of ending the active standoff with Russia and starting to replace chaos with a relationship built out of the ruins of Russia’s Western path, and a new contractual order with Russia bit.ly/3q56gs1
8/8 For Putin, it’s a chance to make clear that reaching an agreement with Russia is no guarantee of any future Western leanings, and that the West must accept Russia as it is, as it did during the previous era of bipolarity bit.ly/3q56gs1

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More from @baunov

31 May
THREAD 1/ The police officers who planted drugs on the investigative journalist Ivan #Golunov back in 2019 have been sentenced to 5-12 years in prison and ordered to pay Golunov compensation of 5 million rubles ($68,000). The severity of their sentences is important.
2/ We live in a society that believes that someone who was framed by the security services is lucky that they backed down. People say, “You’re lucky they didn’t put you in jail,” and see that in itself as a victory for the victim and punishment for the perpetrators.
3/ Unfortunately, the security services also think like this: that it’s punishment enough that their operation to frame an innocent person failed, and that person has been amply rewarded by getting off lightly.
Read 5 tweets
21 May
1/6 This is what I wrote about president Biden and Nord Stream-2 some time ago carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
2/6Trump may have been considered a pro-Putin president, but it is Biden who has actually done several things desired by Russia: he extended the New START treaty, returned to the Iran deal, and shifted the U.S. stance toward the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline bit.ly/3fahJmm
3/6 Biden is obviously not doing these things to curry favor with Russia, or because he likes Putin. They have been achieved because, unlike Trump, Biden promised he would consult with America’s European allies bit.ly/3fahJmm
Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
1/7 Putin clearly wants to make use of the chance offered by Biden: he remains sure of his diplomatic charisma and his ability to find mutual ground. My take of recent escalation and deescalation carnegie.ru/commentary/844…
2/7 n addition, the Kremlin is confident that the United States and the West in general have no other option but to engage in dialogue with Russia bit.ly/3xCGYVh
3/7 Moscow has put forward arms control, the pandemic, and climate change as possible areas of cooperation, and refusal to cooperate on these issues would undermine the idea of a U.S. foreign policy built on principles and global responsibility bit.ly/3xCGYVh
Read 7 tweets
23 Apr
1/9 THREAD on spring deescalation: Putin’s national address focused on social support & infrastructure, not military, ideological or geopolitical issues. There was nothing for critics to seize on. It wasn’t really about domestic policy either though, over which questions remain.
2/9 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to be pulled back from Russia’s border with Ukraine, where they had been massing for several weeks.
3/9 The imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been moved to a hospital: first to a prison ward, then to a regular hospital in the town of Vladimir. It’s likely he will be seen by his Moscow doctors, who are calling on him to end his hunger strike.
Read 9 tweets
22 Apr
1/8 It appears that leaders on both sides of the #Russia -#Ukraine border capitalized on the tension there to make contact with the new U.S. administration. My piece about recent events around #Donbass carnegie.ru/commentary/843…
2/8 The current picture bears a lot more resemblance to the eve of Russia’s five-day war with Georgia back in 2008 than it does to events in Ukraine in 2014 bit.ly/3esaJj5
3/8 If the previous escalation was preceded by pro-Russian mobilization in the east and south of Ukraine, giving it the appearance of a civil war, then the current tension looks a lot more like maneuvers ahead of a conventional conflict between two armies bit.ly/3esaJj5
Read 8 tweets
15 Apr
1/10 THREAD Biden’s call to Putin and the new round of sanctions against Russia were planned at the same time.
2/10 During their phone call, Biden heard nothing from Putin that could put the sanctions on hold: nothing suggesting Russia would change its behavior. That, of course, was never going to happen.
3/10 The new sanctions, coming hot on the heels of the phone call, are a necessary framework to dialogue with Putin for the new U.S. administration. They will dispel even the slightest suspicion of a rapprochement, avoiding disappointment among U.S. allies.
Read 10 tweets

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