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Alexander Baunov Profile picture
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21 May, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1/6 This is what I wrote about president Biden and Nord Stream-2 some time ago carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
2/6Trump may have been considered a pro-Putin president, but it is Biden who has actually done several things desired by Russia: he extended the New START treaty, returned to the Iran deal, and shifted the U.S. stance toward the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline bit.ly/3fahJmm
3/6 Biden is obviously not doing these things to curry favor with Russia, or because he likes Putin. They have been achieved because, unlike Trump, Biden promised he would consult with America’s European allies bit.ly/3fahJmm
4/6 The Germans want to combine punishment for Russia with completing Nord Stream. Аnd because, in certain areas, American interests align with Russia’s. Biden apparently finds it necessary to make all that very clear bit.ly/3fahJmm
5/6 It’s important for Biden to make it clear that no amount of common interest or work on specific policy areas means a new reset is in the offing bit.ly/3fahJmm
6/6 It’s key for President Biden to distance himself not only from ex-president Trump, but also from his own vice presidency of a decade ago bit.ly/3fahJmm

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More from @baunov

Alexander Baunov Profile picture
30 Apr
1/7 Putin clearly wants to make use of the chance offered by Biden: he remains sure of his diplomatic charisma and his ability to find mutual ground. My take of recent escalation and deescalation carnegie.ru/commentary/844…
2/7 n addition, the Kremlin is confident that the United States and the West in general have no other option but to engage in dialogue with Russia bit.ly/3xCGYVh
3/7 Moscow has put forward arms control, the pandemic, and climate change as possible areas of cooperation, and refusal to cooperate on these issues would undermine the idea of a U.S. foreign policy built on principles and global responsibility bit.ly/3xCGYVh
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
23 Apr
1/9 THREAD on spring deescalation: Putin’s national address focused on social support & infrastructure, not military, ideological or geopolitical issues. There was nothing for critics to seize on. It wasn’t really about domestic policy either though, over which questions remain.
2/9 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to be pulled back from Russia’s border with Ukraine, where they had been massing for several weeks.
3/9 The imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been moved to a hospital: first to a prison ward, then to a regular hospital in the town of Vladimir. It’s likely he will be seen by his Moscow doctors, who are calling on him to end his hunger strike.
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
22 Apr
1/8 It appears that leaders on both sides of the #Russia -#Ukraine border capitalized on the tension there to make contact with the new U.S. administration. My piece about recent events around #Donbass carnegie.ru/commentary/843…
2/8 The current picture bears a lot more resemblance to the eve of Russia’s five-day war with Georgia back in 2008 than it does to events in Ukraine in 2014 bit.ly/3esaJj5
3/8 If the previous escalation was preceded by pro-Russian mobilization in the east and south of Ukraine, giving it the appearance of a civil war, then the current tension looks a lot more like maneuvers ahead of a conventional conflict between two armies bit.ly/3esaJj5
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
15 Apr
1/10 THREAD Biden’s call to Putin and the new round of sanctions against Russia were planned at the same time.
2/10 During their phone call, Biden heard nothing from Putin that could put the sanctions on hold: nothing suggesting Russia would change its behavior. That, of course, was never going to happen.
3/10 The new sanctions, coming hot on the heels of the phone call, are a necessary framework to dialogue with Putin for the new U.S. administration. They will dispel even the slightest suspicion of a rapprochement, avoiding disappointment among U.S. allies.
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
23 Mar
1/7 In 2017 #Trump answering a similar question did not reject outright the questioner’s assertion that #Putin was a killer, but managed to dilute his answer. My current piece about «Putin is a killer» from president #Biden interview to @abcnews carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
2/7 Biden’s blunt assessment was meant to show the rest of the world that the US is returning to world leadership based on high moral standards. This should be met with particular approval by U.S. allies who are under pressure from Russia bit.ly/3tPfU2K
3/7 As Biden was one of the architects of the “reset” with Russia during Barack Obama’s first presidential term, it’s important for him to make it clear that no amount of common interest or work on specific policy areas means a new reset is in the offing bit.ly/3tPfU2K
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
25 Feb
1/4 On #Armenia: the post-Soviet space has seen everything from wars, revolutions and palace coups to dictatorships, hybrid regimes and the hereditary handover of power. Everything—except a classic military coup.
2/4If the army ousts Armenian Prime Minister Nikol #Pashinyan and appoints a new government—provisional or otherwise—to maintain order until new elections, it will be the first genuine military coup in the post-Soviet space.
3/4 #Armenia would join the ranks of an exclusive club of countries in the Middle East and Asia in which the army performs the role of a political moderator and overseer.
Read 4 tweets

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