Thread by @Willbrandblock

Heres my take on #bitcoin right now.
I was feeling a bit bearish early today, but this calmed me down (a bit).
Hope it helps - a smaller 🧵

1/ As everyone knows the recent flash crash was down to the market being over leveraged, with many longs getting liquidated.

2/ The good news is that that there are less bitcoin on exchanges than ever before. Typically when this happens price goes up, with less volume, as supply is so low

3/ We have yet to see long term holders (5months or older) exit the market. In previous bear market we have seen a mass sell of from these more 'diamond hands'.

Warning however. They maybe weighting on the sidelines seeing how things play out.

4/ Fundamentally i think it all comes down to an issue of volume. Looking at the big run earlier in the year to now, we have yet to reach anywhere the same levels. . Plus we haven't see the same retail search interest that we did back in Q1

Conclusion:

-Good conditions (reduced supply of coins, old holder aren't selling...yet)
- Volume is still too low.
- With reduced supply we would need relatively less volume to shoot the price up.

- so could go either way, we just need some big macro positive news.

UPDATE:

We passed a death cross on the 4HR on the 19th Nov.
And the 50 day MA shows no sign over coming back above the 200.
We will dip further unfortunately.
Still no new volume.

UPDATE 2:

I sold half my holding, i think macro wise, this will get worse in the short term

https://twitter.com/Willbrandblock/status/1468875941111902208

UPDATE 3:

This is worrying in the short. Big inflows from whales onto exchanges