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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
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8 Dec, 9 tweets, 4 min read
1. I think the daily reports that I have seen reported of Taliban casualties are in-line with these numbers, though the ratio of KIA to wounded seems unusually skewed towards KIA. Image
2. I found historical #Afghan war #casualties from Brown University.
Total war casualties in #Afghanistan: 2,324 US troops, 3,917 US contractors, 69,000 Afghan government
3. troops and police, 1,144 allied troops from NATO and many other countries, 46,319 Afghan civilians, 52,893 #Taliban fighters and other opposition forces

From 1 July through 5 November 2019, Afghan National Defense Forces reported
4. killing 10,259 militants/insurgents/terrorists. (2,564 per month). As the war with the US and coalition was in transition, during the 18 month of 2020 and through 18 August 2021, 10,793 militants were killed in Afghanistan. Monthly rough average of just about 600.
5. So these Sept through Nov NRF caused Taliban casualty numbers far exceed what the Taliban has been incurring in nearly the past two years and are in line with what the numbers were before the US withdrawal impacted the pace of the war. And this success against the Talban is by
6. a small home-grown force that is growing while the Taliban are getting slaughtered due to their new role as counter-insurgency.

Historically war slows in the Afghan winter. But I'm not sure that will apply where the NRF has the ability to engage the Taliban in urban areas.
7. If these numbers hold up they evidence the Taliban are incurring casualties in numbers beyond historical averages at rates that will be difficult to sustain. Thus the Taliban relies and will continue to rely on even more foreign mercenaries supplied primarily by the #Paks.
8. The problem I see in delaying support for the NRF is that the Taliban's brutality is leading to increased recruitment by #Daesh (ISIS-K). At some point the #Pashtun Taliban will find that the will have a better life in their own region. Until then their numbers will
9. continue to decline and Daesh will become stronger.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
9 Dec
1. When an opinion starts like this, you know TFG is in deep Kimchee.

"MILLETT, Circuit Judge: On January 6, 2021, a mob professing support for then-President Trump violently attacked the United States Capitol in an effort to prevent a Joint Session of Congress from certifying
2. the electoral college votes designating Joseph R. Biden the 46th President of the United States. The rampage left multiple people dead, injured more than 140 people, and inflicted millions of dollars in damage to the Capitol."
3. "The central question in this case is whether, despite the exceptional and imperative circumstances underlying the Committee’s request and President Biden’s decision, a federal court can, at the former President’s behest, override President Biden’s decision not to invoke
Read 11 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
9 Dec
1. Why? Rupert Murdoch has been reported to be holed up in Australia. I interpreted that to mean he was trying to avoid extradition for the slam dunk FARA violations he and his network have committed. Assuming that this is just a ruse, why?
2. It could be a ledger settlement between co-conspirators. Koch and his Russian partners succeeded in generating tons of revenue for Murdoch and they want a taste. With the FBI lurking around Murdoch and Koch and their Russian connections, the Koch Network donors are likely
3. getting skittish. With inflows not keeping up with expenses especially with the coming midterms putting an increasing strain on resources, just like many partnerships, they need a capital call from time to time.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
9 Dec
1. Meta data of this document shows creation date Jan 12, 2021, after the attack. I would not trust anything they gave me. This could be a sanitized document that removed the evidence of agreement to the violent attack that is the element I have not seen in any of the evidence.
2. The only thing I would trust are documents taken from images of the hard drives. If from clouds, I would want to see the logs. In particular, I would look for deleted and modified documents. What these subpoenas may have inadvertently done is give the conspiracy the road map
3. to what they needed to officiate or destroy. The conspiracy would have likely hired a firm to examine the drives. That's who I would be looking for. The good news is that if they were on a cloud the DOJ may have the images and logs. And the Committee is just an lure to
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
9 Dec
1. #Putin is more predictable in certain circumstances that the US press often reports. In 2013, when @BarackObama sailed the USS Whiteplains and USS Taylor offshore of Sochi during Putin's big Olympic shindig, I knew it was going to bring a significant response. Putin doesn't
2. care if we like him. He cares that we respect him and because he, like many strongmen believes he's the embodiment of his nation, he can act for Russia when he's insulted. Russia has maintained bases in Crimea continuously since Khrushchev made the gift to Ukraine that
3. no one ever thought at the time was going to become an independent and eventually hostile neighbor. We still occupy part of Cuba we scooped up as a colonial spoil from defeating the Spanish Empire. Crimea needs to be addressed. I expect some long-term Russian basing and land
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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
8 Dec
1. Western strategy has suffered from the post WWII John Birch Society advanced demonization of the left in the international arena. We might have avoided the current China crisis and the #Vietnam War had we been willing to not take such an aggressive stance against the
2. leftist anti-colonial forces that moved to retake control of colonies after Germany and Japan's defeat. Rather than support independence we advanced confused policies that were easily exploited by the most radical forces in the emerging post-colonial world. We played a key
3. role in the radicalization of the Chinese Communist Party by myopic racist policies directed at the Chinese Communists that were passed through a lens of clever propaganda as racial attacks on the Chinese people who had long suffered from racism and Colonial exploitation.
Read 10 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
7 Dec
1. My read of Biden Putin meeting: Putin seeks to be treated like a peer and Biden does that. It allows them to address issues where the US and Russia have common interests. Putin needs to have an off-ramp in Ukraine. I'm guessing that was one of the major reasons they spoke
2. in secret. Sullivan just mentioned Nortstream2 as not a done deal and that's the stick that most concerns Putin. On Iran Sullivan just said the policy is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. My recollection of the JCPOA was that it only delayed Iran's break out. Not stop it.
3. The easing of diplomatic tensions and return to normal consular activities seems to have been a point left to the teams to address. Putin's inner circle does not want more sanctions. It would not surprise me if some lessening of sanctions may be in the cards if there is some
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