Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW16 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW16:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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Q: In this section, I cover Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen.

Since Gameweek 5, only Salah, Mané and Jota among midfielders have a better xG and expected goal involvement (xGi) than Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m). In fact, his numbers have been better than Michail Antonio's (£7.9m):

Antonio v Bowen

GW5-15

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 1.9 v 2.5
Big chances: 0.4 v 0.71
xG: 0.2 v 0.3
Chances created: 2.2 v 1
xGi: 0.5 v 0.7

I don’t necessarily expect this trend to continue as I expect Antonio to be hogging more of the shots in the weeks to come given the fact that the fixtures get easier. What’s been happening in recent weeks is that Bowen has been making the runs in behind while Antonio has been...

... dropping deep against the tougher opposition (as can be seen in the comparison where Antonio is taking on more of a creative role). In fact, Antonio hasn’t recorded a single big chance in the past six Gameweeks. However, West Ham’s fixtures get considerably easier from...

... now on in and I think FPL managers who double up on the duo can benefit. Bowen has the potential to play as aN out of position advanced forward should Moyes opt for a 3-5-2 formation and is an ideal candidate for those looking at a Raphinha replacement. Set and forget!

Q: Who is the best Man City midfielder to get?

Bernardo v Foden (BHA game excluded) v Foden (all games)

21/22

Per 90

Shots in the box: 1.3 v 1.4 v 2.2
Big chances: 0.52 v 0.45 v 0.65
xG: 0.34 v 0.3 v 0.44
xGi: 0.6 v 0.77 v 1

From the comparison above, it’s evident that overall Phil Foden’s (£8.1m) numbers are better than Bernardo Silva’s (£7.6m). However, when you exclude Foden’s Brighton game where he was playing as the false nine, the comparison becomes much closer. Pep has been playing Foden...

... on the left in recent times so if we presume that will be the case, then there is a case to go for Bernardo over Foden. I know look at Bernardo Silva’s numbers in isolation:

Bernardo Silva

Stats per 90 with league rank among midfielders

Shots in the box: 1.34 (22nd)
xG: 0.34 (14th)
Key passes: 1.56 (27th)
xGi: 0.6 (10th)

Total xG: 4.5
Goals: 7

Those numbers honestly aren't too great but I think that Bernardo will keep ticking along simply because he's going to play so much. He was rested in the Champions League which means that he will play the upcoming league games (including the ones in midweek) yet again...

... It's getting to the point where it's very hard not to make a case for him anymore despite the fact that his underlying numbers aren’t the best.

City's stats v Watford

Foden v Gündoğan v Bernardo

Big chance involvements: 4 v 2 v 1
xGi: 1.8 v 1.1 v 1
FPL points: 7 v 6 v 15

Foden’s xGi of 1.8 was the highest in the league last week and he really should have had a bigger haul. Had Grealish converted those big chances that Foden created, I don’t think as many people would be considering Bernardo. To sum it up, if Foden is fit – he would be my...

... number one pick. Bernardo is a good option as well if you can’t stretch to Foden or if he is unfit. Ilkay Gündoğan’s (£7.3m) stats are impressive but with De Bruyne back, he becomes more susceptible to rotation and could play more defensively with the Belgian in the side.

Q: Emmanuel Dennis or Josh King? Who is the better asset?

Since Gameweek 9, Josh King (£5.8m) is third among all players in the league for xG. He’s level on big chances with Salah in this spell which tells you all you need to know! King has played every minute that he has...

... been available for under Claudio Ranieri so far and has had at least one big chance in four of the previous seven games. Most of the xG he has accumulated have come in the games against Man United and Everton but I like him more than Emmanuel Dennis (£5.7m). Since Ranieri...

... has taken over, Dennis has eight returns to King’s five but the underlying numbers suggest that it should be the other way around. This season, Dennis has registered six goals from a xG of 3.74 and six assists from a xA of 3.15 - that's 12 returns in total from...

... a xGi of just 6.9! I prefer King for just £0.1m more who has more sustainable numbers and is on penalties. There’s also the fact that Dennis has been named in Nigeria’s provisional squad for the African Cup of Nations and may end up being unavailable by the end of this month.

Q: Is Cristiano Ronaldo worth the premium outlay?

At the start of the week, I was questioning Cristiano Ronaldo's (£12.4m) value. Now with Foden nursing an ankle problem, I'm not sure whether double Man City midfield is the way to go. I'd like to question Ronaldo's value...

... but it's not as if there are too many places where I'd want to spend at the moment. Bernardo, Bowen, Dalot, King – all the potential targets that I’d want are relatively cheap so I’m not sure if ignoring Ronaldo (especially for those with Harry Kane) is the best thing to do.

Ralf Rangnick’s comments about Ronaldo make me think that he will be Man United’s focal point in the weeks to come:

“You always have to adapt your ideas of football – or your style – to the players you have available. Not vice versa. When you see Cristiano, at the...

... age of 36, amazing. Top professional. At his age, I have never seen a player who is still so physically fit. He is still a player who can easily make the difference. It is about how we develop the whole team, not only Cristiano. He is more than willing to put his input...

... into the team and his teammates will do the same.”

He was given the night off v Young Boys and I think he is highly likely to play the next three fixtures. United’s upcoming schedule will see them play against deep blocks – which are exactly the kind of fixtures where I’d...

... expect Ronaldo to excel. His numbers are on the rise anyway – he’s second for shots in the box and third for xG among all players in the league. And bear in mind that’s despite not starting the fixture against Chelsea!

Q: In this section, I cover Diogo Dalot.

I feel as if Diogo Dalot (£4.4m) could have a big role to play in our squads as a budget enabler in the upcoming Gameweeks. Ralf Rangnick has emphasized on control and the results were immediate as Man United kept their...

... first clean sheet since forever at the weekend. They conceded just the four shots in the box and now have a great run of fixtures coming up. Dalot looks to have usurped Wan Bissaka as the first choice right back under the new manager with his recent performances...

... What was interesting to see was Man United’s average position map against Palace – there was a clear left sided bias with Ronaldo, Sancho, Rashford, Fred and McTominay drifting to the left which perhaps means that Dalot will be used to provide the attacking outlet from...

... the right in the weeks to come should the trend continue.

Q: Is it worth betting against Mohamed Salah for the captaincy this week?

Villa have impressed me under their Steven Gerrard. Defensively, they are posting much better underlying numbers than they were under Dean Smith. Very recently, they restricted Man City to...

... just the single big chance. They are no longer a team to target but perhaps the same can be said of Norwich in recent weeks – even though it’s worth mentioning that they have had a kinder run than Villa of late. Since their new managers have been appointed, Norwich and...

... Villa have conceded three and four big chances in four games respectively. Norwich have shown impressive defensive resurgence as well but what’s key for me is that Liverpool’s attack is on another level when compared to Man United. Liverpool are top in the league for shots...

... in the box, xG and expected goal involvement (xGi) this season – and so is Mohamed Salah (£13.1m). I wrote last week that the Egyptian has reached auto-captain territory for the foreseeable future and there’s not enough evidence to suggest that this needs changing.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! The assumption I’ve made here is that Jorginho and Smith Rowe will be fit enough to play this week. No player has created more big chances than Robertson in the past three GWs so I think he has a good chance of beating his 8.5 predicted target.

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