Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW17 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW17:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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Quite a few people have gone agonizingly close to winning Fantasy5’s £10k weekly prize. Some of the predicted targets this week are even more lenient, so I think this might finally be the week where we have our first £10k winner of the season! Play: 👇🏻

fantasy5.com/football

If you like the numbers and statistics that I post, you can get access to these, the data that I use and my own team reveal articles by signing up through the link below: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar/73

Q: What to do with Cristiano Ronaldo in case the Man United v Brentford gets postponed?

I would sell Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) in case the Man United v Brentford game gets called off. I know the upcoming fixtures for Man United are great, but with João Cancelo already out...

... this week benches are already stretched and it makes little sense to have £20m of assets on your bench when there is no guarantee that even the Man United v Brighton game in Gameweek 17 will go ahead either given the Covid cases in both camps. If the game is off, I would...

... sell Ronaldo and use the funds to bolster my squad. With fixtures getting postponed left, right and center due to Covid, this is not the time to be owning a £4.5m midfielder or forward. You need eight playable attackers. I’d use the Ronaldo funds to bring in a...

... Man City midfielder before LEE new and utilize the rest to get a playable eighth attacker. I’d also use this fixture postponement as an excuse to sell Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) or Ivan Toney (£6.6m) given the fact Brentford’s fixtures now significantly stiffen up.

Q: What to do with İlkay Gündoğan and who is the best Man City midfielder to get?

“Gündoğan is struggling a lot with his back. And he has not performed well in the last two games. We must reflect what to do to recover him.”

I think that was a fairly damning statement given...

... by Pep Guardiola which makes me think that İlkay Gündoğan (£7.3m) is likely to be benched even if he has been declared fit. With De Bruyne back, he becomes more susceptible to rotation and could play more defensively with the Belgian in the side even if he is playing...

... I would look to sell him for either Bernardo Silva (£7.7m) or Phil Foden (£8.0m). At the moment, I prefer Phil Foden. I posted this comparison between the duo before last Gameweek and it still remains relevant given the fact that the difference between their...

... underlying numbers against Wolves was borderline negligible:

Bernardo v Foden (BHA game excluded) v Foden (all games)

21/22

Per 90

Shots in the box: 1.3 v 1.4 v 2.2
Big chances: 0.52 v 0.45 v 0.65
xG: 0.34 v 0.3 v 0.44
xGi: 0.6 v 0.77 v 1

From the comparison above, it’s evident that overall, Foden’s numbers are better than Bernardo Silva’s. However, when you exclude Foden’s Brighton game where he was playing as the false nine, the comparison becomes much closer. Pep has been playing Foden on the left...

... in recent times so if we presume that will be the case, then there is a case to go for Bernardo over Foden. However, it’s very hard to second guess Pep and where he is likely to deploy Foden. I would pick him simply because of his higher ceiling and the fact that he’s...

... already had his rest at the weekend. I now look at Bernardo Silva’s numbers in isolation:

Bernardo Silva

Stats per 90 with league rank among midfielders

Shots in the box: 1.34 (22nd)
xG: 0.34 (14th)
Key passes: 1.56 (27th)
xGi: 0.6 (10th)
Total xG: 4.5
Goals: 7

Those numbers honestly aren't too great but I think that Bernardo will keep ticking along simply because he's going to play so much. It's getting to the point where it's very hard not to make a case for him anymore despite the fact that his underlying numbers aren’t the best.

Q: Emmanuel Dennis v Josh King – revisited.

Welcome back to the “xG FC” v “Football is played on Grass FC” debate! I was a huge advocate of picking Josh King (£5.8m) over Emmanuel Dennis (£5.8m) last week and was frankly left befuddled by Claudio Ranieri’s decision to employ...

... King on the left wing and Dennis centrally last Gameweek – as it was the first time that it happened this season. Dennis’ owners richly deserved their points as he played in a position far advanced than King – as can be seen in their statistics where King recorded just the...

... one penalty area touch as compared to six for Dennis against Brentford. I was reading the Watford forums after the game and their fans were as perplexed as I was as most of them believe that King is much better as the central striker due to his hold up play. Whether this...

... decision to play Dennis centrally was a one-off tactical decision remains to be seen but it does not bode well for King if this is to continue. I would give it one more week before re-assessing them as options because swapping them around at this point of time without...

... significant clarity about their roles makes little sense.

Q: In this section, I cover Matty Cash and Ollie Watkins.

Villa have impressed me under their Steven Gerrard. Defensively, they are posting much better underlying numbers than they were under Dean Smith. Very recently, they restricted Man City to just the single big chance...

... and despite having played the likes of Liverpool and Man City in their previous five games, they have an average xG conceded per game of around 1.2 which is extremely respectable. It’s worth noting that since Gerrard has taken over, Matty Cash (£5.0m) is ranked top among...

... defenders for penalty area touches and second for shots in the box. Ollie Watkins (£7.6m) is also showing signs of resurgence. He has already scored twice in five games for new Villa boss Steven Gerrard and has an obliging fixture schedule on his hands. He could also be...

... on penalties given that Danny Ings has just come back from injury while Anwar El Ghazi seems to be out of favour. He seems to have cemented himself as the first choice striker at the moment, as Gerrard continues to employ his favorite 4-3-3 formation. The caveat to...

... mention here though is that Watkins has been restricted to just two big chances and five shots in the box in the five games he has played under Gerrard. However, it’s worth noting that Villa have so far faced some of the better defences in the league...

... in Brighton, Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Man City under Gerrard so it’s hard to read too much into that.

Q: What to do with double Chelsea defence?

I’d hold onto both Reece James (£6.3m) and Marcos Alonso (£5.7m). Chelsea are a team short of confidence at the moment but they are expected to have N’Golo Kante available very soon and that will surely improve their defence...

... I think Alonso is likely to keep his place in the side solely due to the lack of alternatives for his position in the Chelsea team. He offers something going forward and Saturday-Thursday is enough of a turnaround for him not to get rested. Chelsea are ranked as...

... joint favorites for a clean sheet by the bookmakers this Gameweek and are being given a 60% chance of a clean sheet. I’d keep the double defence.

Q: Is Raphinha worth keeping? If not, who to sell him for?

I don’t think that Raphinha (£6.6m) is a hard sell this week given the fact that most Fantasy managers are likely to have more pressing issues to deal with. However, if that isn’t the case – I would sell Raphinha as...

... the upcoming fixtures for Leeds are tough (mci ARS liv AVL). If you’re selling him this week, I’d go for Conor Gallagher (£6.1m). Gallagher delivered a man of the match performance playing in an advanced role v Everton – which hasn’t been the case in recent weeks...

... In fact, Gallagher was top among all players in the league for shots and second for shots in the box. The fixtures coming up are relatively easy (SOU wat tot NOR) and I don’t think Vieira will shift Gallagher to a deeper role given his recent performance...

... There’s one caveat to mention though and that is the fact that Gallagher is on four yellow cards and is one booking away from a suspension should he get carded before Gameweek 20. If you’re keeping Raphinha this week and selling him next week, then I’d go...

... for Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m) who has an incredible run of fixtures from Gameweek 18 onwards.

Q: In this section, I cover Jamie Vardy and James Maddison.

I would possibly give Jamie Vardy (£10.6m) the Spurs fixture before I sell him. He’s already been rested and has been given a fairly high 45% chance by the bookmakers to score against Spurs this week. However, I...

... would look to sell soon after given the fact that by Brendan Rodgers’ own admission, it’s hard for Vardy to play thrice a week at his age. With the fixture congestion to come, I think it’s worth selling him after this week. James Maddison (£6.8m) is bang in form but...

... I think the boat to buy him has sailed – Leicester face Liverpool and Man City in two of their next four.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! If the Brighton game goes ahead, then Rúben Neves has an excellent chance of beating his predicted target of 4.5 as he is likely to be on penalties in the absence of Raúl Jiménez. Gallagher and James remain solid picks as mentioned in the thread.

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