Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW18 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW18:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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GW18 round is open for Fantasy5 and this week looks easier than usual!

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- £10,000
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fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar/73

Q: In this section, I cover what to do with some of the popular assets in play keeping in mind the chaos that has been caused by the Covid postponements.

It’s stating the obvious but I would firstly leave it as late on Saturday before making the transfers. With all the...

... randomness in play, I would lean more towards bringing in players who are playing on Saturday rather than Sunday. I would also be reluctant to take point hits to buy players who are playing on Sunday – Phil Foden and Diogo Jota due to their ceilings being the only...

... exceptions (I’m assuming everyone owns Salah, Trent and Cancelo anyway!). I would keep the players I want long term in my squad rather than selling them if they are blanking this week. An example of this is Joshua King (£5.8m) and Emmanuel Dennis (£6.0m) who might have...

... a double or even a triple Gameweek in Gameweek 21, according to @BenCrellin. Similarly, there’s Conor Gallagher (£6.2m) who might have a double Gameweek in Gameweek 21 so I would be reluctant to sell. Man United may also have a double Gameweek in 21 but I find it justify...

... holding onto Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) – particularly at a time when squad depth is critical. It’s important to have an easy route back to him though in case Man United do have a double in Gameweek 21. I would be more open to selling the West Ham assets as they are...

... unlikely to have a double Gameweek anytime soon due to their Europa League commitments. Michail Antonio (£7.9m), in particular, has been very disappointing since his last league goal in Gameweek 9:

Antonio from Gameweek 10 onwards

Stats per 90 with league rank among forwards

Shots in the box: 0.75 (23rd)
Big chances: 0.00 (Last)
xG: 0.05 (25th)
Key passes: 1.25 (8th)
xGi: 0.2 (25th)
West Ham xG: 1.2 (13th)

Those numbers make for grim reading. West Ham have a great run of fixtures coming up, but with such an astronomical drop in numbers, it’s hard to justify holding onto an asset with a blank fixture and with no immediate double Gameweek to come.

Q: In this section, I cover Phil Foden.

Phil Foden (£8.0m) is my pick of the Man City midfielders to own at the moment. He comes at a very affordable price and the ceiling that he possesses in that Man City team is second to none. I much prefer him to the likes...

... of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling because of his price – there’s so much you can do with the additional funds. Foden has been in superb form this season and what strikes me is the fact it is apparent that he has established himself in Pep Guardiola’s first 11. He...

... will be rotated at times but his explosive potential is such that he can make up for the random benchings with his hauls when he plays – as was the case against Leeds. It was also interesting to see him take corners despite the presence of De Bruyne. Man City are given...

... a 54% chance by the bookmakers to score 2.5+ goals against Newcastle, and I fully expect Foden to be in the points again.

Q: In this section, I cover Ollie Watkins.

Ollie Watkins (£7.7m) would be my number one forward to own in Gameweek 18. He has shown signs of resurgence under Steven Gerrard having already scored thrice in six games. With Danny Ings’ minutes being managed, he is the focal...

... point of Villa’s attack and is likely to be on penalties in his absence. His numbers against Norwich were encouraging - he recorded six shots in the box and had a healthy xG. What I like about Watkins is that he is nailed for 90 minutes which is a very rare trait to have...

... for the forwards in play at the moment. Watkins has a very high 44% goal involvement since Gerrard took over so at the moment, he is Villa’s talisman. I would vice-captain him this week – Villa are the first team to play after the deadline so it is safe to...

... bring in/be dependent on Villa’s players should there be any fixture postponements on the games to be played on Sunday.

Q: In this section, I cover Arsenal’s attacking assets.

What strikes me about Leeds United is the number of chances they concede centrally – 47% of their chances conceded are from the centre, as opposed to 25% on the left and 28% on the right flank. The weakness was woefully...

... exploited by De Bruyne and Foden, which leads me to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) could have a good time playing against the Leeds defence as well.

“He’s taken the captaincy the way everybody saw today with such pride and commitment. I’m really happy again...

... with the way he played.”

These comments from Arteta and the fact that he said that the Aubameyang situation “will take time to heal” makes me think that Lacazette could be a good short-term option, particularly before two games against Leeds and Norwich...

... Leeds in particular are rocked by injuries – and only have 10 senior players available tomorrow. Further, Arsenal are playing tomorrow which makes their assets relatively low risk.

I now compare their midfielders:

Saka v Smith Rowe v Martinelli v Odegaard

21/22

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 1.9 v 1.2 v 2.3 v 0.6
Key passes: 2.1 v 1.5 v 1.9 v 2.1
xG: 0.25 v 0.22 v 0.32 v 0.12
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 0.5 v 0.4 v 0.6 v 0.3

Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.2m) are the ones who stand out. Martinelli is more of a risk due to his minutes so Saka would be my pick here if picking one. However, one caveat to mention here is that despite all my enthusiasm about Arsenal’s assets, they...

... are ranked 17th for xG away from home this season. However, they have had a very tough fixture schedule away from home so maybe this is down to that.

Q: Is it worth Free Hitting this week?

I don’t think Free Hitting is a viable solution even if your team is a shambles this week. I say that because most of the fantasy managers at this point in time own the main assets from Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City while the rest of...

... the player pool to pick from remains limited. The likes of James, Trent, Jota, Salah and Cancelo are so highly owned and that’s a good enough core to have. The additional benefit you might derive from a Free Hit seems low given that most fantasy managers have the best...

... players of this Gameweek already. Further, with precedents set for late fixture cancellations, the last thing you need is to load up on a team on a Free Hit only to find its fixture being canceled.

Q: In this section, I write about Matty Cash.

Villa have impressed me under their Steven Gerrard. Defensively, they are posting much better underlying numbers than they were under Dean Smith. Very recently, they restricted Man City to just the single big chance and despite...

... having played the likes of Liverpool and Man City in their previous six games, they have an average xG conceded per game of around 1.3 which is extremely respectable. It’s worth noting that since Gerrard has taken over, Matty Cash (£5.0m) is ranked second among defenders...

... for penalty area touches and shots in the box. He recorded six penalty area touches in the Norwich game and now faces a Burnley side who are bottom for xG this season so chances of a clean sheet look bright. The bookmakers have ranked Villa as the most probable team...

... to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 18 after Man City and Chelsea too. The one caveat to mention here though is that he is on four yellows and is one booking away from a suspension in case he gets a yellow card before Gameweek 20.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already covered Watkins and why I feel he has a good chance of hauling against Burnley. Jorginho only needs a clean sheet and his usual penalty goal to beat his predicted 7.5 points target, so he’s my pick from Chelsea’s game.

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