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Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
@nirav_uscdc
Dec 23, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/It's time to review recent data around #COVID19 outcomes by vaccination status.

Let's start with the risk of testing positive for #COVID19. Nationwide, an unvaccinated person has a 5X higher risk of testing positive for COVID.

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2/Here are those data broken out by age group. Every fully vaccinated age group has a lower risk than every unvaccinated group.
3/The impact of vaccination on risk of death from #COVID19 is even more stark.

In October, an unvaccinated person had a 14X higher risk of dying from COVID19 compared to a fully vaccinated person.
4/In terms of risk of death by age, a fully vaccinated 80+ y/o has roughly the same risk of death from #COVID19 as an unvaccinated 50-64 year old.

Same with a fully vaccinated 65-79 y/o and an unvaccinated 30-49 y/o.
5/What role do boosters play?

In Oct, an unvaccinated person had a 10X higher risk of testing positive for COVID compared to a boosted person.
6/The impact of boosters on death rates is even more striking.

In Oct, an unvaccinated person had a 20X lower risk of dying from #COVID19 compared to a fully vaccinated person with an additional/booster dose.

Not many medical interventions can achieve that.
7/Let's look at hospitalization by vaccine status.

For adults, the cumulative #COVID19 associated hospitalization rate was about 8X higher in unvaccinated persons (blue line) compared with vaccinated ones (green line).

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
8/What does all this mean? First, it is continued evidence for the performance of vaccines. Are they 100% effective? No, nothing in medicine is.

Second, are they doing what they were designed to do? Yes, they are keeping people out of the hospital and alive.
9/Third, do boosters matter? Yes, absolutely, especially in light of #Omicron.

Get vaccinated and, if you have, get boosted when eligible.
10/Erratum--tweet #6 of this thread should read:

"In Oct, an unvaccinated person had a 20X *higher* risk of dying from #COVID19 compared to a fully vaccinated person with an additional/booster dose."

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More from @nirav_uscdc

Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
Feb 2, 2023
1/Hey #Maine-frostbite and hypothermia are no joke.

You could lose a finger, a limb, or even die. Here's what you need to know.

First, cold-related ER visits are real. With the upcoming Arctic blast, we expect to see Mainers needing emergency care. Don't be one of them. Cold related ER visits
2/Let's start with hypothermia.

You can get it from being outside in cold temps. Hypothermia happens when your body loses heat faster than it’s produced.

When your body temp gets too low, it affects your brain.

You can't think clearly or move well, which is my baseline. It is cold outside.
3/This is why hypothermia is dangerous: you might not even know that it’s happening .

So know the warning signs of hypothermia: shivering, exhaustion, confusion, slurred speech, etc.
Read 10 tweets
Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
Feb 1, 2023
1/Hey y'all - it's gonna be #cold in #Maine this Fri/Sat.

Dangerously cold. Some might even say wicked cold.

So like if you normally snow blow your driveway in shorts and flip flops while sipping a @dunkindonuts iced coffee, take note.
2/How #cold is it going to be?

Well, @Todd_Gutner (aka Hot Toddy) forecasts wind chills of -60F in the interior of #Maine, and a balmy -40F along the coast.

He bases his predictions on #science. So you know they must be right. I'm told he even uses a computer.
3/I mean, honestly, maybe -60F isn't *that* cold.

Here is a list of places that will still be colder: Mars.

For reference, it will be around -45F at the South Pole.

They've got it good down there.
Read 9 tweets
Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
Jul 22, 2022
1/@MEPublicHealth has identified #Maine's first case of #monkeypox in a York County male.

Maine CDC has been preparing for monkeypox for several weeks, given the international outbreak. So what is monkeypox? How does it spread? Who is a risk? What can we do to prevent it?
2/Monkeypox is a rare disease caused by infection with the monkeypox virus.

The #monkeypox virus is part of the same family of viruses that causes smallpox, though the diseases are different. The symptoms are milder, and monkeypox is rarely fatal.
cdc.gov/poxvirus/monke…
3/Monkeypox often causes a rash that can look like pimples or blisters that appears on the face, inside the mouth, and on other parts of the body. Individuals also report symptoms like fever, fatigue, and muscle aches.
Read 11 tweets
Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
Jul 6, 2022
1/The logical implications of common arguments against #COVID19 #vaccines are worth considering. I focus on some of them here.
2/Argument #1: The approval process is corrupt!

What part of the process, specifically, is corrupt and how is that different from the pathway that other COVID therapeutics followed? For example, was the process that authorized monoclonal antibodies like bebtelovimab corrupt?
3/What about the process oral medicines like Paxlovid followed? What that corrupt, too? Remdesivir?

Would you be willing to take those other products if you got a serious case of #COVID? If so, why not vaccines?

What was uniquely corrupt about the vaccine pathway?
Read 19 tweets
Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
Jun 19, 2022
1/In recent days, the @US_FDA has authorized and the @CDCgov (via @CDCDirector) has recommended the @pfizer and @moderna_tx #COVID19 vaccines for
children 6m+.

Though the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines are quite impressive, I've seen a more fundamental question.
2/That is, "Why should I vaccinate my child against #COVID at all? After all, it isn't that severe in kids, and my kid already had it. Is #COVID19 in children really a big deal?"

I'd like to make the public health case for pediatric #COVID19 vaccines with @CDCgov data.
3/Let's start with the baseline number of cases among children. Many children have been affected by COVID throughout the pandemic.

All of these slides are from a recent @CDCgov #ACIP meeting and are publicly available here cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
Read 17 tweets
Nirav D. Shah Profile picture
May 13, 2022
1/Here's where we stand with #COVID19 in #Maine right now.

There are 223 people hospitalized w/COVID, 35 of whom are in the ICU and 2 on a ventilator.

Two weeks ago, there were 143 hospitalized. One thing different now as compared to prior surges is the severity level.
2/In prior waves, the number of patients in the ICU and on ventilators grew in tandem with overall numbers. But here, we have not seen the same parallel growth in the most severely ill patients.

Two weeks ago, there were 34 patients in the ICU and 5 on ventilators.
3/So our growth in hospitalizations has come from non-ICU/non-ventilated patients. They are still ill--make no mistake--since they are hospitalized.

Generally, the composition of those who are hospitalized now are older vaccinated individuals and younger, unvaccinated ones.
Read 6 tweets

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