Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW19 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover Free Hit and the most common FPL dilemmas right before we head into GW19:

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Q: Is it worth Free Hitting this week? When is the best time to Free Hit?

I think this is the question on everyone’s lips this week. It’s a very team specific question though – and one that does not have a right or wrong answer in black and white. Hence, I will run you...

... through some of the different strategies in play and outline the pros and cons for each. You can choose the optimal strategy for your team depending on whichever one suits it the most:

*Free Hit in GW19:

Pros: A Free Hit in a depleted Gameweek like this more or less guarantees you a green arrow. You can avoid taking hits at a time when a lot of the other fantasy managers will be taking hits to set their team up. It also allows you to jump on the best...

... captain for this Gameweek (Ronaldo in my opinion) at the same ensuring that you get to keep Salah for the next Gameweek as well. A lot of fantasy managers own Foden and Antonio – and there is a huge possibility that they miss this GW and start the next, which again is a...

... benefit of Free Hitting now.

Cons: There are strong rumors that the Spurs v Crystal Palace game is likely to be called off due to Covid. That will only reduce the pool of players to pick from and limit the upside to Free Hitting. Free Hitting now will give you a good...

... team for Gameweek 19 but it’s very likely that you will be taking these hits soon to set myself yourself for Gameweek 22 anyway (The likes of Bowen, Ronaldo, Son have favorable fixtures and doubles soon) so I am not sure how much value addition the Free Hit will add.

*Free Hit in GW20:

Pros: If you Free Hit in GW20, you can take hits to set yourself up for the long term in GW19 while in GW20 you have an easy route to Salah as captain. This is the best possible strategy to minimize variance as it gives you the best possible captains...

... in the next two Gameweeks. Further, you can jump on Man City’s assets v Brentford (we will have more clarity after the Leicester lineup) at the same time getting some from Man United (BUR) and Spurs (sou) too.

Cons: You can argue that this strategy is more of a defensive...

... one as it is based on reducing variance rather than aiming for a points ceiling. Essentially, you’re Free Hitting for Salah v Leicester. There’s also the point that the likes of Ramsdale/Tierney (WOL), Alonso/James (BRI), Jota/Trent (lei), Antonio (wat) have good fixtures...

... already that week so there is no clear advantage to be had from your Free Hit team as opposed to your non Free Hit team, unless Salah goes big.

*Free Hit in GW22:

Pros: You can handpick the best players in the double GW without using hits to “build” towards it.

Cons: It blocks you from bench boosting in GW22 when perhaps that could be an option (should the Covid chaos die down) given how squads are at the moment...

... Further, most of the players who have favorable fixtures in GW22 (Man United, Spurs, West Ham) have good fixtures before that as well so there is unlikely to be much difference between your current squad and your Free Hit squad in GW22.

Q: Is it worth selling Mohamed Salah?

News of Liverpool's blank v Leeds has opened the game up. Salah’s upcoming run of fixtures read blank, lei, che before he heads to the African Cup of Nations. Leicester is the only fixture in which he can do significant damage to your...

... rank as he'll still be owned by a sizeable number of managers who might choose to captain him. I do think that Salah will do well against Leicester, particularly given the fact that they have a weakness on their left flank and have conceded the highest number of chances...

... among all teams in the league down that flank this season. There's also the rest factor to take into account - Liverpool would have had a full week of rest while Leicester have plenty of injuries and will have a two day turnaround after a tough game against Man City...

... before they host Liverpool. Ultimately, I find it very hard to justify keeping a player I am likely to captain just once over the next five or so Gameweeks, especially at Salah's price tag. Ideally, I would want to find a way to fund both Ronaldo and Salah but I think...

... it weakens the rest of the squad a bit too much.
I like the option of buying Ronaldo this week as he's an excellent captaincy option for the next two fixtures (new, BUR) and then potentially has more doubles to come. He is also well rested in recent times so that...

... decreases the chances of him getting a rest in the coming fixtures. In Gameweek 19, he is comfortably the bookmakers' favorite to score anytime and has been given a 57% chance to notch against Newcastle. Newcastle have statistically been the worst defence in the league...

...this season, conceding the highest number of big chances and having the worst xG conceded. What's also worth highlighting is that they concede 43% of their chances centrally so are likely to be highly obliging to strikers they come up against. Despite United's hot and...

... cold performances of late, Ronaldo's numbers have been consistent. No player in the league has a better xG per 90 than Ronaldo since Ralf Rangnick's arrival.

Q: Which striker to sell to fund Cristiano Ronaldo?

*Antonio – I would want to keep hold of him considering his favorable fixtures and an upcoming double. Would only be tempted to sell if we get news pre deadline that he isn’t playing and if you are not choosing to Free Hit

*Watkins – I would sell Watkins as he has a tough fixture against Chelsea this week and then possibly a blank in 20 when Aston Villa are due to visit a Covid hit Leeds side

*Lacazette – He’s a sell in the long run but I can’t justify selling him this week before Norwich

*Dennis/King – I think if you have no other option, you probably sell either for Ronaldo using Salah as the makeweight. Watford have some upcoming doubles but it’s hard to own everyone. Dennis I would be more comfortable selling as he has been named in the 28 man squad for the...

... African Cup of Nations so might miss double Gameweek 22 anyway.

Q: Who are the some of the must have players to own on a Free Hit?

Two players I would definitely have on a Free Hit are Gabriel Martinelli (£5.4m) and Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m). Since Arteta has given him an extended run in the side (from Gameweek 14 onwards), Martinelli is...

... ranked fifth among midfielders for expected goal involvement (xGi). He is also top among all Arsenal players for shots in the box and big chances during this spell. The very fact that he is competing with midfielders much higher to him in price highlights the value that...

... Martinelli is offering at the moment. He is clearly first choice and has been playing as an inside forward on the left, with Lacazette dropping deep. Norwich have been hit by injuries and Covid and are very clearly a team to target at the moment. They will be missing...

... their first-choice goalkeeper, Tim Krul as well which is likely to benefit Arsenal’s attackers. Arsenal are already in a rich vein of form so you’d expect this fixture to only go one way. Martinelli has been given a very strong 44% chance to score against the Canaries...

... by the bookmakers so they are clearly in agreement as well! Bowen I think is an excellent player to own in the weeks to come as well. West Ham have a good run of fixtures and possibly a double Gameweek in Gameweek 22 too. Since Gameweek 5, only Jota, Salah and Mane...

... among midfielders have a healthier xG than Bowen which highlights the kind of value that Bowen can possibly offer. Him and Martinelli can allow for significant upgrades in your squad elsewhere.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already covered Martinelli and Bowen – I believe both of them have a good chance of beating their points target. Jorginho is on penalties which makes him attractive for the Fantasy5 format too. He needs a goal and bonus to beat his target.

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