Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW20 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover the most common FPL dilemmas before we head into GW20:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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Q: I start by talking about the shenanigans of Gameweek 19.

It’s only fair if I start by writing about the absolute chaos that the FPL community witnessed five minutes prior to the deadline. I myself am speaking as someone who wanted to Free Hit prior to the deadline but...

... once I pressed confirm, the FPL servers had crashed. I was under the impression that my original team would stay and my transfers wouldn’t have gone through. To my shock and horror, I found out that my Free Hit chip had been played and I had Martinelli and Son on my bench...

... Thankfully, their replacements, Broja and Lamptey did a stellar job which means that I was truly grateful to come out of this Gameweek with 63 points with Ronaldo captain to go. Having said that, I think this week left a sour taste because I don’t think fantasy managers...

... were given a level playing field. I’d like to sympathize with a lot of fantasy managers who came out on the brutal side of variance...

For a game growing at an exponential rate every season, what happened yesterday in FPL was inexcusable. It was almost as if you had studied for an exam all week only to have the exam hall door shut in your face even if you had reached five minutes prior to its scheduled start.

Q: Is it worth Free Hitting in Gameweek 20?

I think this is the question on everyone’s lips this week. It’s a very team specific question though – and one that does not have a right or wrong answer in black and white. I personally don’t think I would Free Hit this week – as...

... I believe most of the template teams are relatively well set this week. I think Free Hitting now is more of a defensive strategy as it is based on reducing variance rather than aiming for a points ceiling. Alonso/James (BRI), Jota/Trent (lei), Antonio/Bowen (wat)...

... have good fixtures already this week so there is no clear advantage to be had from your Free Hit team as opposed to your non-Free Hit team, unless Salah goes big. There’s also the fact that a lot of fantasy managers have heavily invested in Arsenal’s players who you would...

... want to get rid of anyway with a fixture run that is likely to read: blank mci tot+CHE BUR wol blank. Even if you Free Hit this week, you would be using transfers to get rid of these anyway – so Free Hitting now would just be a temporary fix postponing transfers till...

... next week. I’m aware that Free Hitting now gives Salah non owners an easy route to Salah as captain. This is the best possible strategy to minimize variance as it gives you the chance to own both Ronaldo and Salah this week who will be the most popular captains...

... but personally I like attacking the chips aiming for points maximization.

Q: What to do with Arsenal’s assets? (Assuming one is taking hits to sell)

The assumption I have taken here is that Man United v Wolves is likely to go ahead. Keep an eye on that since Wolves have been hit by Covid and are due to play Man United in Gameweek 21.

*Aaron Ramsdale: I would sell for David De Gea. Man United have a great run of fixtures with upcoming doubles so I expect the move to pay off within the next four Gameweeks even if it is for a hit

*Ben White/Kieran Tierney: I would look at selling for someone like...

... a Diogo Dalot if you want to go cheap or Sergio Reguilón in a similar price range. No team in the league has a better xG conceded per 90 than Spurs since Conte has taken over. Reguilón has had at least one big chance involvement in four of the five games he has started...

... under Antonio Conte. A mega haul from him is right around the corner!

*Gabriel Martinelli: I would keep Martinelli as he is so cheap that he allows for significant upgrades elsewhere. A good long-term hold

*Bukayo Saka: I would look at selling him for the likes of Jarrod Bowen or James Maddison

*Alexandre Lacazette: I would plan on selling for Cristiano Ronaldo or Michail Antonio

Q: What to do with Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva?

Bernardo Silva has had no involvement in Man City's previous 17 goals despite having had a big chance involvement in each of the past three games. I think people need to be realistic in their expectations with him - he will...

... tick over but is not an explosive asset. He was overperforming his expected goal involvement (xGi) early on in the season so perhaps a bit of regression was overdue. He has a xGi of 1.4 in the previous two and a half games he has played for Man City so has been a bit...

... unlucky to have blanked in succession. I think I’d keep him as there are likely to be more pressing transfers to make. Same is the case with Phil Foden – he was given some time off the bench by Pep Guardiola, so there is every chance he can play him in the next game...

... keeping in mind the short turnaround. Most Man City fans on their forums expect him to start.

Q: Is it worth Bench boosting in Gameweek 22? Is it a good idea to play the second wildcard immediately?

I don’t think it is worth spending a lot of money on the bench just to give yourself the opportunity of bench boosting in Gameweek 22. I would not commit to such a...

... strategy with the late postponements going around. I think it’s better to use the bench boost in a double Gameweek once the Covid chaos dies down. I also don’t see the need to play a second wildcard straight away to set yourself up for Gameweek 22. A lot of teams you would...

... want in the wildcard – assets from Man United, Spurs and West Ham have good fixtures from now till Gameweek 22 so it is better to take hits to set your team up for the long term rather than to use the wildcard this early. Better opportunities will come.

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