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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
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28 Dec, 6 tweets, 3 min read
1. Lede: Former KGB flunky destroys the Second Russian Empire. So much for all the hype. With a sweet monopoly Putin lost his temper and killed the Russian economic future.

zerohedge.com/commodities/eu…
2. Rule one of monopoly power: Never force your customer to find another supplier. When Putin made the foolish choice to shut off the gas flow he and his mob crew must have forgotten about that law @BarackObama signed in January 2016. On Dec 18, 2015, in a one paragraph amendment
3. to a Defense authorization bill, advanced by @lisamurkowski and a few others but supported by some Democrats like yours truly, the US changed the future of the Russian empire, OPEC and every other fossil fuel monopolist wannabe forever. Prior law had banned US energy exports: Image
4. And through a compromise that flooded alternative energy industries with subsidies, the House & Senate both both got onboard to allow big-bad-oil to enter the export markets with a one paragraph repeal of Sec. 103. Boom! Putin lost the war on @NATO he hadn't yet started. Image
5. Maybe Putin and his America hating think-tanks thought that the bill was just focused on crude oil. Had they read the bill that was repealed they would have seen it covered all fossil fuel markets including the LNG market that Putin just gave to the US for nothing
6. but the courage to stand up to a KGB bully.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
29 Dec
1. US LNG production and shipping can defeat Russia's attempt to subjugate Europe. Putin will try to get @POTUS @JoeBiden to fix the mess Putin made of his gas monopoly. It would be a mistake to make any decisions that gives Putin back the weapon he proved he'd use on Europe.
2. The proper position would be to discuss whether the US needs to use the defense production act to build a huge fleet of LNG carriers to completely overwhelm the Russian capacity. I'm nearly certain that Putin needs to talk now because he sees his gas play as a disaster
3. that exposes his lack of understanding of simple economics. Russian oligarchs can likely perceive what this policy will bring and it will be economic decline and more pressure on the government.

Putin has created the need for Ukraine to be in @NATO and for NATO to look
Read 8 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
29 Dec
1. #Ukraine: I don't recall if Russia ever attempted an amphibious landing. If Putin is planning one it's a very risky endeavor. If I were preparing to defend it, I would consider deploying as many reserve MBTS and MSTA's as possible to defend the obvious targets near Odesa, and
2. right outside of the entrance to Crimea. Then practice gunnery by grids, marking the gun placements and then disburse them to more secure revetments that could be employed to confuse Russian bombers. Then when the unfortunate Russian conscripts are approaching the
3. coast, deploy the guns back to their assigned grids and rain concentrated artillery fire to disable and then sink the ships. The keys would be practice for accurate grid targeting and moving the tanks and guns to more secure locations from which to deploy for the attack.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
28 Dec
1. I can recall the issue of 'Kuleana' rights holders arose regarding the large parcel Zuckerberg purchased. I've had to address this complicated issue of Hawaiian land ownership and I didn't see the way his lawyers handled it as extreme or improper. Also, the Ka Loko dam is a
2. threat to public safety that has killed people in recent times. The Zuckerberg family has apparently taken the dam on as their responsibility or 'Kuleana' in the Hawaiian language. I'm not a fan of @Facebook or the firm's role in the attempted overthrow of the Republic but
3. simply from a perspective of news reporting, I don't see this story backed up by local media reporting from either the more mainstream @StarAdvertiser the investigative @CivilBeat, or the smaller more activist Hawai'i Free Press. Rather than go after Zuckerberg for
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
17 Dec
1. All of this is consistent with my analysis that, since at least February, there has been a large counterintelligence investigation to determine whether foreign actors have played roles in our elections and in the Jan 6 attack. We are three FISA orders in out of possible four.
2. IMO the Gang of Eight may have finally been notified of members of Congress who have been identified as national security targets. Was Nunes given an offer he can't refuse and resigned? McConnel is now indicating that something big is coming. I'm watching Rubio and McCarthy.
3. Yesterday Rubio stopped his absurd block on Biden's ambassador to China. I have not done a deep dive, but Kevin McCarthy seems to be MIA. I still think that there is a high likelihood that Putin's recent activities directed at Ukraine are a response to this investigation.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
16 Dec
1. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, after JFK let Nikita Khrushchev know he'd risk nuclear war, the Soviets backed down. We didn't formally agree to pull our missiles out of Turkey but did informally. I don't think #Putin can politically be seen to have gotten nothing re Ukraine.
2. We keep talking about #Donbas and the return to #Minsk Accord's #NormandyFormat that would leave an semi-autonomous region but return border control to #Ukraine. Nobody in our camp appears to be considering any compromise on #Crimea. I think the chip might be #Sevastopol.
3. Perhaps a deal that provides cheap energy to Ukraine for a time that is tied to continued use of Sevastopol by Black Sea Fleet under the terms of a new lease. Give both sides a benefit and and incentive to move on. And everyone can call it a win. @WHNSC @SecBlinken @SecDef
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
16 Dec
The Senate is finally voting to confirm @RNicholasBurns as US Ambassador to China.
Several GOP have voted yes so I presume it will pass. Now at 21 to 4.
He's at 59 to 15 so he's going to be confirmed.
Read 4 tweets

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