Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. US LNG production and shipping can defeat Russia's attempt to subjugate Europe. Putin will try to get @POTUS @JoeBiden to fix the mess Putin made of his gas monopoly. It would be a mistake to make any decisions that gives Putin back the weapon he proved he'd use on Europe.

2. The proper position would be to discuss whether the US needs to use the defense production act to build a huge fleet of LNG carriers to completely overwhelm the Russian capacity. I'm nearly certain that Putin needs to talk now because he sees his gas play as a disaster

3. that exposes his lack of understanding of simple economics. Russian oligarchs can likely perceive what this policy will bring and it will be economic decline and more pressure on the government.

Putin has created the need for Ukraine to be in @NATO and for NATO to look

4. favorably on having a well-armed buffer force on the Russian border. Putin cannot expect to dictate from threats. We must remain firm that Russia must get out of Ukraine. As to gas and NATO that all depends on how Russia behaves in the coming months and years.

5. But for now, Russian has to withdraw from all its frozen conflicts including Transnistria and South Ossetia. No more Russian aggression and if he says no, we flood the European market with LNG, put Libya back on-line and end Russia's ability to dictate terms to anyone.

6. From a US domestic political perspective, being perceived to have caved into Putin even slightly will be a disaster @TheDemocrats will not be able to recover from by November. After Afghanistan, @joebiden must expect every tinpot dictator like Erdogan to test

7. him. That was all predicable and @WHNSC should be prepared for Putin to take some aggressive actions if he does not get his way. How @POTUS deals with it will determine if it's one aggressive act or the beginning of an endless series of challenges that may lead to war.

8. Putin needs to end his silly gas war. It's a war we can win while making tons of money. Nothing says America is back better than standing up to Russian tyranny while putting a boatload of easy cash in our pocket. @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer @WHCOS @SecBlinken @SecDef @PressSec