Thread by @GorwayGlobal

#Omicron in India - a thread.
Thanks to all those who replied to my question yesterday, esp @Rukmini @PriyankaPulla @RijoMJohn and @pash22
I've pieced together some data and information from @PIB_India website and PRs from @MoHFW_INDIA . Here's what I can glean.

1. New cases of #Omicron infections began to be reported daily only on 21 Dec when there were 200 cases in the preceding 24 hours. (note there is a lag of 4-5 days for genome sequencing to be done)
2. On 29 Dec there were 781 cases in 24 hours.

That's a 4 fold growth but lags in reporting the Dec 25 holioday period etc make this a vbery crude estimate of growth. Total Covid cases (i.e. all variants) over the same period grew fromaround 7,000 cases on 19/20 Dec to 9,195 cases on 29 Dec.

But I am reluctant to draw any chart yet because the daily cases numbers are fluctuating. (6,531 on 27 Dec and 6,358 on 28 Dec).
The key is the number of tests done and the % of positive swabs sent for genomic analysis. This is less clear.

@PIB_India reports each day a figure for tests done to date. using these numbers (66.51 Crores tests done to 20 Dec and 67.52 Cr to 29 Dec. I deduce a daily average of 1.1 million tests. No data on %age that are genome sequenced.

As a crude estimate, a full genome sequence may not be necessary to detect #Omicron. see this nice graphic from @BBC

In contrast, England reported 117,000 new cases of Covid in one day, and USA: 440,000 and France: 180,000 cases. So, unless #Omicron behaves v differently in India, the new wave of #Covid infections is yet to come.