Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW21 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover double GW21:

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Q: In this section, I cover the assets to own in double Gameweek 21.

I think Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen are pretty much must-own after hearing the news of a West Ham double Gameweek in GW21. Having a fixture against Norwich is like a double Gameweek in itself, let...

... alone couple it with another fixture. Antonio has already registered double the number of big chances in the past one and a half games than he did in the nine games combined so is showing signs of form. Bowen is coming on the back of a man of the match performance against...

... Watford where he was involved in four big chances. Bowen has the better underlying numbers in recent times – he has a xGi of 0.7 since Gameweek 5 (as compared to 0.5 for Antonio) but it’s hard to split them for captaincy, especially given Antonio’s improvement of late...

... Bowen does have the additional advantage of set pieces in Cresswell’s absence though. Both Palace and Norwich have no apparent flank weaknesses for me to favour one over the other either. The good thing is that even if the remote possibility of both failing in the double...

... Gameweek comes true, they face Leeds at home in Gameweek 22! Coming to Everton, Dominic Calvert Lewin is clearly the best pick statistically. He has the best xG among all Everton players despite having started just three games for them this season. However, his starting...

... position for the first game in the double Gameweek could be a bit of a risk judging by Benitez’s comments:

“Fitness-wise he is getting better... Match-fitness, we will see. Maybe he scores three goals in the first half and we don't need to worry about his match fitness...

... but I think the issue will be how long he can play if he starts the game or, if he comes from the bench, how much impact he can have on the game. We are considering all of these things but he is training really well and he is really happy because he is with the team and is...

... ready to play and score goals.”

I personally think that he is likely to start and his potential is such that it shouldn’t be too much of a problem even if he plays 60 minutes. I also really like the option of picking Demarai Gray. Not only is he nailed, but he’s a cheap...

... asset to own and can be an excellent budget enabler to own in the weeks to come. What I like about Everton’s assets is that even after the double, their fixtures read nor AVL new LEE sou so they could be great long-term picks. I don’t even mind doubling up on both...

... Gray and Calvert Lewin as they have Norwich next week where either could possibly match one of the double Gameweek-ers should a double gameweek in 22 be announced.

Q: Is it worth Wildcarding or Free Hitting in Gameweek 21?

This is obviously team specific but for most teams, I don’t see the need to play a second wildcard straight away to set yourself up for Gameweek 22. A lot of teams you would want in the wildcard – assets...

... from Spurs, Everton and West Ham have good fixtures from now till Gameweek 22 so it is better to take hits to set your team up for the long term rather than to use the wildcard this early. Better opportunities will come. As far as the Free Hit is concerned, I see limited...

... upside as Bowen/Antonio and Gray/Calvert Lewin are good long-term picks for your original squad as mentioned above. Brentford’s fixtures are trickier, and I don’t necessarily think either of their picks will go big to justify a Free Hit chip this week.

Q: Who are the best James replacements?

Fantasy managers await the results of medical examinations to find out the extent of James’ injury, but according to an initial reports, James is likely to be out for at least two months with a torn hamstring. We are now heading into...

... a tough run of fixtures for Chelsea as well as a blank Gameweek in 24 and 25 due to the Club World Cup. James is an easy sell for me, even if he returns from injury earlier than suspected. I look at his best replacements:

One of the West Ham defenders: I think I’d rule out the possibility of picking a Brentford defender due to their fixtures while no team has a worse xG conceded per game than Everton since Gameweek 8. Cresswell has been close to returning every week but keeps getting ruled out...

... so at the moment it seems that the safest options are either Diop or Dawson as Moyes’ position over Coufal or Johnson as the starting right back remains unclear. As mentioned, fixtures are good for the long-term.

One of the Spurs defenders:

Spurs under Conte v Nuno:
xG per 90: 2.1 (4th) v 1.2 (15th)
xG conceded per 90: 0.7 (1st) v 1.6 (13th)

Granted the recent fixtures have been easy, but Spurs have shown an incredible amount of improvement under Antonio Conte...

... We expected him to organize the Spurs defence and that has happened to quite a large extent - no team has a better xG conceded per 90 in the league than Spurs since Conte has taken over. This is why I like the idea of owning a Spurs defender - they have the perfect...

... combination of underlying statistics, favorable fixtures and double Gameweeks to justify selection.
“I’m enjoying the position because I can attack more! He [Conte] wants me to be solid in defence but at the same time I have to arrive in the box, help the strikers, score...

... goals, give assists. Now I have more of a chance to score goals and give assists so let’s work.”

This is a quote from Reguilón in an interview once Conte was appointed. The impact of that quote is there to see when I compare his numbers with the other Spurs defenders:

Reguilón v Emerson v Davies

Touches in the final 3rd per 90: 27.4 v 21.5 v 9
Penalty area touches per 90: 3.8 v 2.4 v 1.7

It's evident from the comparison that Reguilón is the most attacking of the lot. He has had at least one big chance involvement in four of the six games...

... he has started under Antonio Conte. Conte confirmed that he was substituted due to his yellow card against Southampton fans at the weekend so there should be no immediate danger to his starting place. However, there is a growing consensus among Spurs fans who believe...

... that he could be at risk from Sessegnon. Hence, if you are a risk-averse manager, I would suggest picking Emerson Royal as he is nailed as Ben Davies but with better attacking threat. For those who adopt more of a risk taking approach, Reguilón is clearly the pick...

... as I think he should outscore the other Spurs defenders if I assume that they all play an equal number of minutes.

Rúben Dias/Aymeric Laporte: You can't really go wrong with the Man City defence. No team has conceded fewer shots, shots in the box, big chances or has a better xG conceded than Man City this season. Both Dias and Laporte are clearly first choice and have started the...

... significant majority of games they have been available for. The problem with opting for a Man City defender though is that they don't have any double Gameweeks coming up so the ceiling of points is possibly lower than the rest of the alternatives available.

Andrew Robertson: This is a bit of a left field pick. The play here is to leave James on your bench this week if you can afford to, and buy Robertson in a week's time as he will be suspended this Gameweek in Liverpool's game against Chelsea. Liverpool are likely to have a...

... very favorable double Gameweek with home fixtures against Brentford and Leeds. With Salah out of the picture due to the African Cup of Nations, Robertson could be an ideal James replacement. However, the problem with bringing Robertson is that you will probably have...

... to sell him once Salah returns so it is equivalent to booking a transfer in advance unless you are committing to an early wildcard.

Q: In this section, I cover Son and Kane.

Both Son and Kane are showing great signs of resurgence under Antonio Conte:

xGi per 90 under Conte v Nuno:
Kane: 1 v 0.5
Son: 0.8 v 0.6

No forward has a better xGi per 90 than Kane since Antonio Conte has taken over. He has a xGi...

... of 1 as compared to Son's 0.8 under Conte so in fact his underlying numbers are even better than that of Son’s – but there is a £2m price difference between the pair of them as well. That’s not to say Son’s numbers are poor – in fact, only Sterling has a better xGi per 90...

... than Son among midfielders in the past eight Gameweeks. What also helps is that Watford’s defensive underlying numbers are all over the place:

xG conceded per 90

Since Ranieri has taken over:

Watford 2.12
Everton 2.05
Leicester 2.02
Newcastle 1.93

Kane is ranked by the bookmakers as the favorite to score anytime (53%) while Son isn’t too far behind at 45% either so both the stats and odds suggest a big score from the Spurs boys is on the cards.

Q: King or Dennis – who is the better pick?

Since Ranieri's tactical tweak to play Dennis centrally and King on the left wing, Dennis has a xGi of 1.4 to King's 0.9. King was statistically the better pick before that and is still posting good numbers, but if Dennis isn't...

... going to the AFCON, he is a slightly better pick. I wouldn’t use a transfer to swap them around at this point in time but if I was picking one right now, I would pick Dennis.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Cash is 2nd for penalty area touches and 3rd for shots in the box per game among defenders since Gerrard has taken over so I’d back him to beat his predicted target of 6.5 points. Gray is another one I really like as mentioned in the thread.

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