Global economic growth slowed at the end of 2021 amid rising COVID-19 infection rates linked to #Omicron. However, at 54.3, the Global PMI signals above-trend annualised quarterly global GDP growth of approx. 3.5%.
The December global PMI was pulled lower by a slowing of service sector growth, which slipped to the weakest for three months. In contrast, manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest since July, albeit running behind that of services for the ninth month running.
The widening spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed restrictions (imposed and voluntary) on service sector activity in some economies during December. Manufacturers meanwhile reported that constraints on production had eased, though nonetheless remaining a significant drag.
Measured globally, the number of companies reporting that output was constrained by raw material or staff shortages fell for a second month in December, down from an unprecedented peak in October, albeit still running almost three times higher than the long-run average.
This alleviation of the global supply crunch is underscored by the PMI surveys also showing the number of companies reporting items in short supply to have fallen to the lowest since February, suggesting that shortages peaked back in June.
However, just as the supply crunch is alleviating, Omicron threatens further disruptions to economic activity - especially in the service sector, just at a time when the global demand recovery is fading sharply.
UK business activity surged back into life in February, according to the flash PMI, displaying renewed growth after six months of decline. The composite PMI rose from 48.5 to 53.0, registering the strongest expansion since last June and smashing expectations of a reading of 49.2
UK PMI input cost gauges also fell further, but only slightly to remain elevated. So #CPI#inflation should continue to moderate, but the Bank of England's 2% target still seems a long way off
Here's the latest UK PMI data on output and prices charted against Bank of England #MPC policy decisions. Hard to see them taking a pause from tightening policy in March!
UK #recession risk rises as flash #PMI falls deeper into contraction in January amid worsening service sector economy and ongoing manufacturing decline. More at bit.ly/3WzVTev
Survey highlights how headwinds are driving UK economic activity lower, though price pressures are thankfully cooling - albeit remaining elevated
Survey data also highlight how the #BoE policy tightening is having an impact. More rates hikes to come amid reduced government help to households and businesses will undoubtedly add to recession risks.
Global #manufacturing output fell for a 5th straight month in December. Although improving supply helped moderate the rate of decline, a further steepening in the rate of loss of new orders paints a bleak picture of demand. More at bit.ly/3jSl9P9#PMI
Factories around the world are now also shedding workers in response to worrying signs of excess operating capacity, according to @SPGlobalPMI data
@SPGlobalPMI Similarly, input buying by factories is slumping worldwide as firms adjust their inventories to lower demand and lower production requirements.
Global #manufacturing PMI falls into contraction territory for first time since 2020 lockdowns.
Here's our deep dive into the numbers and sub-indices bit.ly/3RzsmPs
Of the 31 economies for which S&P Global PMI data are available for September, some 21 reported falling production. Myanmar and Taiwan are seeing the steepest downturns, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.
Evidence of any substantial growth in production was largely confined to APAC, led by advances in Thailand, India, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Worldwide PMIs to provide guidance on recession risks and inflation trends. Read our free preview of what to look out for in Friday's flash releases ihsmarkit.com/research-analy…
The key data will be the new orders indices, and what they are telling us about the environment in which central banks are hiking interest rates. It's not been looking great up to June ...
With forward-looking #PMI indicators such as business expectations, new orders and backlogs of work signalling worse is yet to come, euro area #GDP looks set to contract in the third quarter
Flash #Germany#PMI Composite Output Index falls to 51.3 in June (May 53.7, consensus 53.1), a 6-month low and indicative of GDP contracting. As with France, consensus well and truly missed
Manufacturing Output Index at 49.0 (May: 51.2) amid steepest drop in factory orders for two years. Services PMI at 5-month low of 52.4 (May: 55.0) with demand also now falling.
German businesses also reported their lowest confidence towards future activity for over two years in June, led by worsening prospects in manufacturing. This points to a worsening economic decline in coming months