Thread by @AliHMokdad

@IHME_UW new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022. The infection-detection rate has declined to 22% on January 3. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

Our model projects 905,000 cumulative reported deaths due to #COVID19 on 5/1, this represents 79,000 additional deaths from 1/3 to 5/1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 1,930 by 1/24, 2022. 2/

Daily hospital census including incidental admissions with #COVID19 will rise to 273,000 by January 25, 2022. We estimate that 57% of people in United States of America have been infected at least once as of January 3. 3/

In previous waves the control strategy has been to control infection and thus reduce hospitalization and death. Given there is little prospect of controlling infection, strategies need to focus on reducing harm in the vulnerable and minimizing disruption. 4/

The number that will be admitted with #COVID19 to hospital is expected to increase substantially but a substantial fraction of this increase is due to incidental #COVID19. 5/

But hospitals are clearly under stress due to healthcare workers who have tested positive and need to quarantine. 6/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

Given the massive numbers of infections in the community, testing and quarantining asymptomatic individuals may not be helpful. States may need to consider revisions to their testing and quarantine strategies. 7/

A critical factor in understanding the trajectory of #Omicron is the fraction of infections that are asymptomatic. Based on data from South Africa and the UK, we currently estimate this to be 80-90%. 8/

The strategies to reduce risk remain: vaccination including a third dose where appropriate, high-quality mask use and avoiding crowded indoor settings, especially for individuals with high risk factors, unvaccinated, and never infected. end/