Thread by @noclador

A short thread about #Finland 🇫🇮&🇸🇪 #Sweden... and the short time left for them to join #NATO.

1) #Russia is about to invade #Ukraine.
2) This will lead to a massive increase of NATO forces in #Poland, #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania.

1/5

3) Russia's invasion will also result in #Finland & #Sweden requesting to join #NATO.
4) points 2 & 3 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 for #Russia & Russia will risk everything to prevent these.
5) The easiest way to stop a country from joining NATO is to occupy a part of it.

2/5

6) #Russia's solution is to occupy Sweden's #Gotland.
7) If Russia occupies Gotland then NATO will reject Sweden's bid as accepting it would mean immediate war with Russia.
8) With Sweden's bid rejected #Finland would have to face Russia alone or accept Finlandization again.

3/5

9) With #Gotland occupied NATO can't defend, reinforce, or liberate #Estonia, #Latvia, #Lithuania.

Invading #Ukraine will lead to two unacceptable outcomes for Russia. Invading Gotland at the same time would prevent both outcomes and also stop NATO's further expansion.

4/5

And #Putin knows this: right now #Russia is massing amphibious ships in the Baltic Sea.

While #Sweden & #Finland continue to waste time complacently.

Either 🇸🇪🇫🇮 act now or they must face alone what Putin has in store for them.

5/5