Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW22 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover double GW22:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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Q: Is it worth Wildcarding, Free Hitting or Bench Boosting in Gameweek 22?

This is obviously team specific but for most teams, I don’t see the need to play a second wildcard straight away to set yourself up for Gameweek 22. There’s lots still up in the air so it is better to...

... take hits to set your team up rather than to use the wildcard this early. Lots of FPL squads are decimated with injuries at the moment so I can see the temptation to wildcard but in my opinion, better opportunities will come in the future – particularly when we are...

... expected to have a string of double Gameweeks from Gameweek 33 till 37 in succession. Ideally I’d want to wildcard when the Covid wave has died down – FPL these days has a sense of daily fantasy about it where you’re undergoing high maintenance to set your team up...

... weekly without too much long term planning attached to it. Use the wildcard when it can help with the long-term planning and the potential optimisation of a strong chip like the Bench Boost in the future. As far as the Free Hit is concerned, I see limited upside of...

... playing the chip this week. Free Hit is best used when the template/your normal squad is inferior to your Free Hit squad for one particular week. I don't think that's the case this week. I personally think if you're Free Hitting you can't keep all those single GWers as...

... most double GWers are expected to outscore them over two games – this is actually a big factor in why I think this week is a bad week for the Free Hit. Liverpool (Trent/Jota), Everton (DCL/Gray) and West Ham (Bowen/Antonio) all have great fixtures on paper – which negates...

... the power of the Free Hit to quite a significant extent as it lessens the power of your Free Hit squad when compared to your original squad. I’m aware that this is the biggest DGW of the season but I don’t think there is any need to force playing the...

... Bench Boost either – even if it costs you just a hit or two to set it up. The time to play Bench Boost is when it gains you the most points but it defeats the purpose if there is uncertainty in play and some of your double Gameweek fixtures may get cancelled...

... Further, if you spend a load of points just to set yourself up for the Bench Boost, you have to deduct that from what you gain. It is not worth taking a big hit for the Bench Boost unless it improves your squad for the long run.

Q: When is the best time to use their Triple Captain and Free Hit chips?

I think Gameweek 26 would present an ideal opportunity for FPL managers to use their triple captain chip should Liverpool get their expected double of Leeds and Norwich at home. It would only be fitting...

... for us fantasy managers to present Mo Salah with the opportunity to take centre stage given how this season has gone. Gameweek 27 can be a great time to use the Free Hit, as the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool are likely to have a blank Gameweek immediately after...

... doubling. Most of these clubs have good fixtures post Gameweek 27 so it won’t be ideal loading up on them in Gameweek 26 only to sell them in 27. This is exactly the kind of scenario which the Free Hit chip is made for. What I also like about this Gameweek is that there...

... are lots of plum fixtures to target – Southampton v Norwich, Man United v Watford and Palace v Burnley to name a few.

Q: How many double Gameweek players in 22 are required?

For me this is more about the quality rather than quantity. I think that Ronaldo trumps Kane as the best captaincy option this week – purely because his likelihood of xPostponement is lesser than Kane’s. Arsenal have...

... been hit hard by injuries and suspension after the Carabao fixture and according to reports, Arsenal apparently have 12 senior players available for Sunday’s fixture against Spurs which could put that fixture at risk. There is not a lot of travel involved for the fans...

... either so as a FPL manager, the last thing you want to hear is the news of a late postponement after the deadline has passed. For this reason alone, I wouldn’t be too keen on loading up on Spurs this week. I’m a huge fan of their defence – no team in the league has a...

... better xG per 90 conceded than them since Conte has joined but there are no obvious options to pick there at the moment. There’s also the fact that Reguilon is nursing an injury while Spurs are in the market for a right wing back and a left centre back which might put...

... Emerson and Davies at risk in the times to come. I’d be very tempted to load up on at least one Watford attacker this week. Their stats in recent times haven’t been great but one thing I’ve noticed in particular has been their ability to rack up the goal threat stats...

... against the inferior opposition under Ranieri this season. Their next three fixtures (Burnley, Newcastle, Norwich) are all expected such teams and are all fixtures you’d expect Watford to go hard against on paper. I would probably have gone with both Dennis and King on a...

... Free Hit this week. I own King so I am not swapping to Dennis as I’m not convinced about who is the better pick as their positions are interchangeable on a match-to-match basis. King’s underlying numbers over the season are better but since Ranieri's tactical tweak to...

... play Dennis centrally and King on the left wing in Gameweek 16, Dennis has a xGi of 1.6 to King's 1.2. I would probably pick Dennis if picking one right now but King does have the added advantage of penalties. You can’t go wrong picking either.

Q: Who are the best Son replacements?

Midfielders

Last 10 Gameweeks

xGi per 90

Salah/Sterling 1.1
Jota 1
Son/Maddison 0.9
Moura 0.8

Maddison is the one who stands out as the Son replacement. His numbers have been seriously impressive in recent times particularly...

... considering that Leicester have played Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea in this spell so it’s not as if he has been stat-padding against easier opposition. He’s the Leicester midfielder of choice for me – his xGi per 90 of 0.9 is far superior to that of...

... Tielemans’ (0.6), Barnes’ (0.5) and Lookman’s (0.4) in this spell. Leicester have reasonable fixtures either side of the double too so I have no problem playing Maddison even at home against Brighton or West Ham in the coming weeks. Moura has been putting up some...

... encouraging numbers as well and is now likely to play more centrally in a 3-5-2 in Son’s absence. The caveat obviously being Spurs’ risk of a xPostponement.

Q: What to do with Mohamed Salah and Reece James if you still own?

I’d try and hold on to Salah if I had him this week. The latest he is expected to be back is by GW24 so I’m not sure if it’s worth using a transfer to lose him now just to buy him back two weeks later...

... I’d sell Salah only in the case where I’m unable to afford Ronaldo for the captaincy this week in which case I’d reluctantly make Salah the makeweight. I’d be wary of spreading the funds around though – as I’d want Salah back smoothly as soon as possible.
I’d also hold...

... onto Reece James simply because I don’t like any of the double Gameweek defenders this week, either due to their fixture difficulty or because they have blank Gameweeks scheduled right after. I’d keep James this week with a view of selling next week for an...

... Aston Villa full back – Aston Villa have a great chance of doubling in Gameweek 23 and have good fixtures scheduled after the double as well. Villa under Gerrard have been posting impressive defensive numbers and historically from his time at Rangers, we know that...

... he likes his full backs to push higher up. I’ll be scouting Cash and Digne this week to see who is the one worth getting.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Liverpool have a 54% chance of a clean sheet according to the bookies so Robertson has a good chance of beating his target with a clean sheet and an assist to his credit. I have covered the rest of the picks in my thread.

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