Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW23 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover GW23:

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Q: What to do in case a double Gameweek for Villa and Leeds is announced?

I think there are four players I would primarily target in case this happens:

Raphinha: In case Leeds have a double Gameweek, Raphinha becomes a legit captaincy shout. Raphinha for me is one of the...

... best midfielders in his price range. He has been involved in 10 of Leeds' 24 goals this season and his underlying numbers have been consistently on the rise - he's had at least one big chance involvement in six of his previous seven starts. If he gets a double...

... in Gameweek 23, he's up against Newcastle and Villa who are 1st and 4th for penalties conceded respectively.

Digne: Digne has been a favorite of fantasy managers in the past but hasn't quite hit the same heights this season. In a recent interview, this is what he said...

... regarding his recent form:

“The manager asked me to be more of a defender this season, to stay back a bit more and keep a better balance for the team. My first job is to defend, I am a left-back. If what you are being asked to do is for the good of the team, that is...

... it, the end of the discussion. You do the job the manager wants.”

It's fairly evident that Digne wasn't given the freedom to express himself under former boss Benítez. However, under Gerrard that is unlikely to be the case. Even historically at Rangers, Gerrard's...

... left back and right back accumulated 14 and 7 attacking returns in 20/21 from open play respectively. He's playing a 4-3-2-1 at Villa where the likes of Coutinho and Buendia are likely to play as the inside forwards with the full backs likely to provide the width and bomb...

... forward. When I look at Villa's numbers from the United game, Digne was second for shots in the box, chances created and touches in the final third (where he accumulated 25 touches to Cash's 20). It was also worth noting that he was taking a share of the set pieces...

... Coming to the Villa defence, they have kept just two clean sheets in nine matches under Gerrard so far but it's worth noting that they have faced some of the better attacks in the league in Man City, Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool and Leicester during this spell. Despite...

... the tough opposition they have faced, they are ranked fifth for non-penalty xG conceded and eighth for xG/big chances conceded which I believe is fairly impressive. The real litmus test will come once they face the easier opposition around them which they are due to face...

... in the coming weeks.

Coutinho: Anyone who used to play FPL back in the day when Coutinho was at his peak would know how explosive a player he was! A trigger happy, shoot-on-sight, quality midfielder is exactly the kind of player fantasy managers like to own and Coutinho...

... fits the bill perfectly. We have little evidence of how Coutinho is likely to do in a Villa shirt, but what we saw in the game against Man United was very encouraging. Everything seemed to go through Coutinho (who was playing in an advanced position) and it was almost as...

... if every Villa player was deliberately searching for him because they trust in the pedigree of their new signing. He was also on some set pieces during the little time he was on the field. Villa have an encouraging set of fixtures coming up and may double this Gameweek...

... itself, so Coutinho is a good option to own either way. There's an outside chance he might be on penalties too, as the Villa penalty taking pecking order remains unclear.

Watkins: Watkins has four attacking returns in eight games he has played under Gerrard which...

... isn't the greatest of returns but you have to take the fixtures into perspective - Villa have faced some of the better defences like Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Brighton in that spell. What I like about Watkins is his versatility to play anywhere in the...

... front three, which makes him secure for 90 minutes and gives him more chances of scoring FPL points. With the lack of forwards alternatives available in the FPL market at the moment, Watkins is worth picking - especially with Villa's upcoming fixtures.

Q: Is it worth wildcarding in case a double Gameweek for Aston Villa and Leeds is announced?

Obviously, this question is team specific but I do think there is some merit to wildcarding if this is the case. I see quite a few gains that can be made from wildcarding right now...

... if there is a double GW for both Aston Villa and Leeds:

*You can load up on triple Villa and Raphinha without taking hits

*You can set your team up for Salah without
requiring massive surgery

*You can set your team up with triple City with their upcoming fixtures...

... Laporte I believe is an excellent option. Manchester City are ranked top for xG conceded, big chances conceded, shots conceded and shots in the box conceded this season. They have already kept 12 clean sheets this season and they have a great run of fixtures coming up...

... I like the idea of doubling up on the Man City defence because Cancelo is owned by the significant majority of serious FPL managers anyway, so this is where you can actually gain from Man City's defence doing well when it comes to effective ownership. Laporte has started...

... all of Man City's previous eight Premier League matches and has been first choice this season. He's priced at £5.6m, which is £0.7m cheaper than his fellow team-mate Rúben Dias. I don't see any reason to opt for Dias over him as Pep has rotated Dias time and again this...

... season so the additional benefit that Dias had last season of being super nailed seems to have been lost. I also think that Laporte's goal threat is a bit under-rated, as he's ranked top for shots in the box among defenders this season.

*You can get rid of the deadwood in your team (Chelsea and Man United assets in particular might need replacing soon)

*You're getting ahead of the curve by avoiding hits and by already having players which other FPL managers are likely to bring in later

*You're basically setting your team up for the long term so giving yourself a greater chance of taking advantage of the wildcard over a longer period of time as opposed to wildcarding later

However the major two cons that I see from wildcarding right now are listed as follows:

*Wildcard is likely best used together with the Bench Boost to make maximum use of the Bench Boost chip

*With Covid uncertainty still in play, we may get random blanks/doubles scheduled...

... on later in the season which will be easier to navigate with a wildcard in hand. We're expected to have successive double Gameweeks from Gameweek 33 to 37

Q: In this section, I cover the Man City midfielders.

In case no double Gameweek is announced, I think owning a Man City midfielder becomes a bit of a priority this week.

Man City are ranked as the bookies favorites to score 2.5+ goals in each of the next three Gameweeks...

... They face Southampton, Brentford and Norwich during this spell so I'd want a piece of the Man City attacking pie - especially when you take into account the lack of captaincy alternatives this week. Truth be told you can’t go wrong with any of Sterling, Foden or De Bruyne...

... Foden is the one who is likely to represent the greatest value. At just £8m, he presents a cut-price route into the City attack. I was scouring through the City forums and almost every other fan expects him to start. What helps him is that he can either play as the...

... false nine or on the left, where Grealish has been poor. The problem with the Man City attackers is that points are usually spread, with there being no apparent talisman. Foden has the highest goal involvement % compared to any other Man City player...

... (27% as opposed to De Bruyne's 19% and Sterling's 20%) this season which makes him an excellent option.

...Sterling is the one who stands out statistically. Why I fancy Sterling this week is because Southampton have a zonal weakness on the flank where Sterling is likely...

... to be operating. This season, Southampton have conceded 73 chances on their left, 59 on their right and 56 centrally so there is a clear bias to conceding chances on their left flank. Sterling's underlying statistics are actually better than those of Foden's or De Bruyne's...

... over the season and in the previous six matches. Over the season, Sterling has an expected goal involvement per 90 of 0.9 compared to 0.8 for Foden and 0.7 for De Bruyne. Over the past six matches, he has an expected goal involvement per 90 of 0.9 as compared to 0.6 for...

... Foden and 0.4 for De Bruyne. In fact, Sterling's form has really picked up from Gameweek 12 onwards and he is ranked third for expected goal involvement in the league ever since, only behind the likes of Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane. He is a genuine captaincy option...

... this week. The bookmakers have given Sterling a very healthy 44% chance of scoring this week.

Q: What to do with Antonio?

Antonio's form has been poor in recent times but I still think he's a good player to own. West Ham are facing some leaky defences (mun,WAT,lei,NEW) in their next four which presents Antonio with the opportunity to be in amongst the points...

... Despite his drop in form, he's still ranked third for xG and second for xGi among forwards this season which is great for someone of his price. I would only sell him this week in case you don’t own and there’s a double Gameweek for Watkins announced.

Q: Is it worth selling Jota on a wildcard?

There is a thought to sell Jota on the wildcard with Robertson back on the menu (He's first for big chances created/assists and second for chances created among defenders over the past six matches) but I would personally resist the...

... temptation. Firmino is back so Jota could possibly miss the odd game here or there but he's been impressive for Liverpool this season so I'm not sure the risk is high enough at the moment to drop him from your squad altogether. His brace against Arsenal has further...

... cemented my thoughts regarding his security of starts. Jota is ranked second for xG (only behind Salah!) this season which makes him a great asset to own and a hard sell on a wildcard. Even this week against Brentford, he was unlucky not to have hauled as he had six shots...

... in the box and was the biggest underperformer according to the xG model this Gameweek.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I have picked Jorginho as he has a reasonable chance of keeping a clean sheet and scoring a penalty which should help him beat his target. Maddison is averaging almost one expected return per game in recent times which is the reason behind his selection.

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