Is it a good time to start DCA into #Bitcoin ? I would say yes if you don't need to use the money anytime soon.
Using our Max Bottom Identifier (MBI) Model to analyze $BTC Price structure.
Please read all facts so you can come to your own conclusions.
Facts:
-Once Trad. Psych. turns orange it takes on average 126 days for price to reach higher levels.
- It is currently orange.
- Also that period is the best time to DCA and relax, instead of timing the exact bottom.
A more efficient way:
- Start DCA on orange levels.
- If TP turns red or bloody red increase the daily ammount for DCA, that is a clear sign that bottom is very close.
If we start going up only from here, then even better, nothing to lose (if you know how to take profits later).
Remember, $BTC has recovered from every dump and bear market so far, so if you believe in it this is a valid alternative.
You can combine DCA with a Trend system, meaning that you buy a little every day and when the midterm trend flips bullish again you increase position and start taking profits methodically.
Many ways to make profits and sleep better, specially if you focus on the mid and long timeframe.
Not financial advice.
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-Since August'08 we have only went from the ranging zone (yellow) to the downtred zone (blue) 4 times.
- Also, we had bounced 2 times from similar current levels in the past d without touching the blue zone.
More 🔽
The four times we went below:
- 2008-2010: -44% from current level, 722 days to recover.
- 2016:- 8.5% from curent level, 46 days to recover.
-2018-2019: 13% from current levels, 62 days to recover.
- 2020: 13% from current level, 33 days to recover.
The two times we bounce:
- 2011: TR sentiment was from yellow to pink (neutral to medium fear)
-2015: TR sentimen was from yellow to red (neutral to low fear)
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Please have in mind that the "Possible actions" are just a guide on how to interprete all the signals. Use them to complement your own analysis, and decide accordingly❗
This one looks interesting, current TR Sentiment levels are getting closer to the past March'20 crash.
We are already at medium fear (different calculation than "Fear and Greed Index") and deep into the blue zone.
So...
As $BTC still on a midterm downtrend and Alts are more risky during time, is all up to how much you believe in $ADA for the long run and its ability to recover.
If that is the case, then Medium Fear are very good levels to start DCA.
Prices can go lower of course, in that case we probably will go into extreme fear (purple sentiment), but the price does not last long on extreme levels.
A VERY zoomed out look to the SPY (S&P500) trend. Using the Weekly timeframe.
Hope this helps to provide some perspective of where the market is right now.
Conclusions at the end.🔽🔽
Facts:
- We continue on the uptrend channel.
- Uptrend Channel support at 417 USD
- Weekly sentiment is current neutral.
- Macro bottoms (best opportunities ever to buy) occur on the ranging or downtrend zone and when TR Sentiment is at medium-extreme fear.
Conclusion:
- Nothing to worry in the long term.
- DCA (buying a little every day) works great for the SPY index.
- If Macro bottom signals appear I would go all in.