🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | The problem is that #Biden advisors and economists didn’t see it coming, thinking that #inflation was transitory. As a result, Biden approval rating ⬇ sharply and is for the first time below #Trump's at this time in the presidency.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Now they woke up (a part of #inflation is of course durable), they think that raising short-term rates as fast as possible before midterms will solve the problem, which confirms that they still don’t understand inflation dynamic and markets’ reaction.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (4) | As an example, U.S. yield curve keeps flattening this morning. It means that long-term mortgage rates will remain very low, exacerbating the problem of spiking #housing prices (and #rents).
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (5) | In addition, by politicizing #inflation and rate hikes (see Gina Raimondo comments), #Biden administration is making another huge mistake in a context where there is a problem of communication: People don’t think that raising rates is good for the economy!
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (6) | Even if real PCE could rebound in Jan., the trend will remain ugly in 1Q as weather conditions deteriorate and consumers are on track to face a heavy shock of #inflation with heating bill ⬆ by >50% YoY in several regions.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Statement and other releases were mostly in line with Street expectations, which had been looking for signal to lay groundwork for March liftoff.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | Powell press conference was clearly more aggressive than the statement, suggesting that he could be more on the hawkish side of the committee.
🇪🇺 🇺🇸 There are at least four big divergences with the U.S.:
1/ Most of #inflation comes from #energy prices (~50%) as the EU is more dependent. After winter and/or if geopolitical tensions ease, the effect should reverse creating huge negative base effects in 2H22.
2/ In Eurozone, market #rents are not rising by 15% or more YoY and it will never happen ⚠ with several cities already implementing caps.
3/ Positive base effect from the spike of German VAT will normalize.
🇺🇸 Americans expect #inflation to rise 4.9% over the next year, matching the highest since 2008, the Michigan report showed - Bloomberg
*They expect prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, the most since 2011.
3/4 of consumers ranked #inflation, compared with unemployment, as the more serious problem facing the nation. Given that inflation's impact is regressive, the Sentiment Index ⬇ 9.4% among households with total incomes <$100K, but ⬆ 5.7% among households with incomes >$100K.
The same split was observed for prospects for the national economy, with lower income households more negative, and higher income households holding a more positive outlook.
*Link: bit.ly/33CnQfB
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | In my opinion, the risk of a wage-price spiral is now real with low-income families asking for more wage increases.
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (1) | PCE #inflation rose 5.0% YoY (highest since Nov. 1990; vs 4.4% prior).
*Core was 4.1% YoY (highest since Jan. 1991; vs an upwardly revised 3.7% prior).
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (2) | FOMC minutes revealed that once again, doves were completely wrong about #inflation noting that “the most sizable price increases may have already occurred.”
*Link (p.8): federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (3) | That view was proved wrong by the CPI reading released a week later and the PCE inflation figures released yesterday.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest data confirmed that growth will accelerate in 4Q as the latest wave of Covid-19 reached a peak in mid-Sep.
*Oct. figures suggest that households started using accumulated excess savings (since Feb. 2020).
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. in late Aug./beginning of Sep. and affected activity in 3Q.
*Therefore, a positive normalization is expected in 4Q as suggested by the rebound in Industrial Production (especially the Mining component).
*Chart from Bloomberg ⬇
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Supply chain disruptions have eased a bit since the beginning of 4Q.
*On Tuesday, President Joe Biden said that bottlenecks in the U.S. supply chain are seeing relief.
*It was coherent with the recent retracement of Bloomberg "Supply Constraint Indicator".