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Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
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6 Jan, 8 tweets, 6 min read
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Latest minutes show that #Fed policymakers look more concerned about #inflation, in line with recent speeches from Powell.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | In my opinion, the risk of a wage-price spiral is now real with low-income families asking for more wage increases.
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | For different reasons, right now, the labor is tighter than indicated by the unemployment rate (4.2% in Nov. 2021).
🇺🇸 #FOMC (4) | In this context, in the private sector, wages growth of "production and non-supervisory employees" hit 5.9% in Nov. 2021 (fastest since May 2020).
🇺🇸 #FOMC (5) | Transitory effects from #Covid_19 are also giving low-wage sectors more bargaining power:

a) People more exposed at their workplace want a premium (especially in the hospitality sector)

b) Net migration flows crashed, creating a shortfall of ~1M work visas ⬇
🇺🇸 #FOMC (6) | Low-income families will also ask for more wage increases in a context where they will face a huge shock of #inflation this winter.

🇺🇸 #FOMC (7) | As I already noted, one of the key problem is that the spike of #rents seems durable.

christophe-barraud.com/why-us-rents-a…
🇺🇸 #FOMC (8) | Therefore, it's not really surprising that policymakers are open to reduce the size of #Fed BS. It's a key tool to push long-term yields higher in order to cap #housing prices.

• • •

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More from @C_Barraud

Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
25 Nov 21
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (1) | PCE #inflation rose 5.0% YoY (highest since Nov. 1990; vs 4.4% prior).
*Core was 4.1% YoY (highest since Jan. 1991; vs an upwardly revised 3.7% prior).
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (2) | FOMC minutes revealed that once again, doves were completely wrong about #inflation noting that “the most sizable price increases may have already occurred.”
*Link (p.8): federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (3) | That view was proved wrong by the CPI reading released a week later and the PCE inflation figures released yesterday.

Read 7 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
25 Nov 21
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest data confirmed that growth will accelerate in 4Q as the latest wave of Covid-19 reached a peak in mid-Sep.
*Oct. figures suggest that households started using accumulated excess savings (since Feb. 2020).
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. in late Aug./beginning of Sep. and affected activity in 3Q.
*Therefore, a positive normalization is expected in 4Q as suggested by the rebound in Industrial Production (especially the Mining component).
*Chart from Bloomberg ⬇
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Supply chain disruptions have eased a bit since the beginning of 4Q.
*On Tuesday, President Joe Biden said that bottlenecks in the U.S. supply chain are seeing relief.
*It was coherent with the recent retracement of Bloomberg "Supply Constraint Indicator".
Read 5 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
25 Nov 21
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (1) | Economic data point to a slowdown and even a contraction in several sectors in November.
*Restrictions linked to #Covid_19 affected activity (same as August) as suggested by Airportia data.
*Link: bit.ly/3CUNAjo
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (2) | On a YoY basis, the expected slowdown in Nov. could be amplified by a calendar effect given that October figures were artificially boosted by one more business day (compared to Oct. 2020).
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (3) | On the positive side, over the quarter, the bottom is probably behind us as the latest #Covid_19 wave seems to be under control.
*Link: bloom.bg/3r6hcIe
Read 7 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
12 Sep 21
🇨🇳 Chinese mainland reports 46 new confirmed COVID-19 cases - CGTN
*20 cases in Fujian province, including 19 in Putian city, authorities said Sunday.
*Link: bit.ly/3tB5l4r ImageImage
🇨🇳 #China Sends Health Team to #Fujian Province After Covid Cases - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 #China | More local restrictions ⬇

Read 4 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
12 Sep 21
🇩🇪 German Social Democrats’ Lead Over Merkel Bloc Widens to Record - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 #Germany | According to Predictit, Olaf Scholz is the biggest favorite to become Chancellor.
*Link: bit.ly/3k0HEiK
🇩🇪 #Germany | An interesting summary of German elections fiscal manifestos from @nghrbi ⬇

Read 4 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
17 Feb 21
🌎 It's time to start a new tweetstorm to monitor global trade rebound, which should be larger than exp. in 2021.
*The drag from #Covid_19 restrictions in 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 will ease.
*Uncertainty linked to trade tensions ⬇.
*Leading sectors (semis and autos) already point to a sharp ⬆.
🇯🇵 #Japan | In January, the value of overseas shipments climbed 6.4% YoY (fastest since Oct. 2018), rising for a second month and picking up from December’s 2% pace. Image
🇯🇵 #Japan's exports, machine orders pick up as global demand recovers - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-jap…
Read 7 tweets

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