🇫🇷 Chief Economist, Strategist | PhD | Bloomberg Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 (2012-2020), 🇪🇺 (2015-2019) and 🇨🇳 Economy (2017-2020) | RT ≠ endorsement
14 added to My Authors
Apr 22 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
🇺🇸 #Fed (1) | As I expected ⬇, the Fed is on track to tighten its policy quickly and strongly for economic and political reasons. christophe-barraud.com/why-is-the-fed…
🇺🇸 #Fed (2) | On the economic front, Inflation is well above target and the risk of a wage/price spiral for low-income families has become real.
Mar 14 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🇨🇳 Chinese officials will be forced to support growth soon in a context where downward pressures are gaining traction.
*The probability of missing growth target (5.5% in 2022) looks high the year of Xi re-election.
1/ The hospitality sector is under pressure with air traffic and restaurant sales plunging YoY in early March.
🌎 Global GDP Update (1) | The impact will be larger than the consensus expects. Even the most pessimistic forecast I saw recently (-1% for global GDP) looks optimistic.
*In my opinion, it’s clear that Global 2022 GDP growth will be below 3% (v >4.0%e).
🌎 Global GDP Update (2) | Economists from banks will keep underestimating the shock as they use traditional models.
*🇺🇸 economists are the most exposed to a miss as they don’t perceive the gravity of the situation in a context where the 🇺🇸 economy is less exposed.
Mar 5 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (1) | The 5.5% GDP target (upper range of expectations) signals an intent to limit downward pressures from the #property slump, zero-#Covid strategy and #Ukraine war (affecting foreign demand).
*Note: China 2021 GDP growth was 8.1%
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (2) | The fact that officials opted for the upper range of expectations looks very encouraging.
*There is a significant risk of missing this goal the year of Xi re-election.
Mar 4 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
🇨🇳 #NPC meeting (1) | #China will be forced to announce new supportive measures in a context where:
1- Hospitality sector remains under heavy pressure due to persistent #Covid restrictions. As an example, according to Airportia, on a YoY basis, air traffic is still falling.
🇨🇳 #NPC meeting (2) | Residential #housing market is crashing.
*In Feb., the 100 biggest companies in #property industry saw a 47.2% ⬇ in sales YoY (v 39.6% prior), according to preliminary data by #China Real Estate Information Corp.
*Weekly figures also point to weakness ⬇
Feb 24 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 *BIDEN, G7 LEADER AGREE TO RESPOND SWIFTLY TO #RUSSIA:WHITE HOUSE - BBG
*G-7 TO IMPOSE 'UNPRECEDENTED' COSTS ON RUSSIA: WHITE HOUSE
*WESTERN ALLIES SEE KYIV FALLING TO RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN HOURS
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 *RUSSIA TO BE ISOLATED FROM GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, TRADE: U.S. - BBG
*BIDEN IMPOSING STRONG SANCTIONS, NEW LIMITS ON RUSSIA
*BIDEN: IMPACT ON U.S., ALLIES WILL BE MINIMIZED
Feb 24 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 *JOHNSON: MUST END DEPENDENCE ON #RUSSIA#GAS - BBG
*U.K. TO FREEZE ASSETS OF RUSSIA'S VTB BANK IMMEDIATELY
*RUSSIA TO BE BARRED FROM RAISING SOVEREIGN DEBT IN U.K. MARKETS
*U.K. TO FREEZE ASSETS OF ALL MAJOR RUSSIAN BANKS: JOHNSON
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 *U.K. TO SUSPEND DUAL-USE EXPORT LICENSES TO #RUSSIA: JOHNSON - BBG
*U.K. IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON OVER 100 RUSSIA INDIVIDUALS, ENTITIES
*JOHNSON: BANNING EXPORT OF HIGH-TECH COMPONENTS TO RUSSIA
*JOHNSON: BRINGING FORWARD ECONOMIC CRIME BILL
Feb 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 *PUTIN BEGINS TELEVISED ADDRESS ON DONBAS SEPARATIST RECOGNITION - BBG
*PUTIN: UKRAINIAN STATE WAS CREATED BY RUSSIA
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: UKRAINE COULD DEVELOP TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS - BBG
*RUBLE WEAKENS TO 80 PER DOLLAR
Feb 3 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (1) | Lagarde conference was more hawkish than ECB statement as she clearly opens the door to some adjustments.
*It suggests that the governing council is feeling uncomfortable with #inflation.
*It suggests that a hike in 2022 is no longer excluded.
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (2) | Markets reacted immediately and are now pricing a hike in June.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | The problem is that #Biden advisors and economists didn’t see it coming, thinking that #inflation was transitory. As a result, Biden approval rating ⬇ sharply and is for the first time below #Trump's at this time in the presidency.
🇪🇺 🇺🇸 There are at least four big divergences with the U.S.:
1/ Most of #inflation comes from #energy prices (~50%) as the EU is more dependent. After winter and/or if geopolitical tensions ease, the effect should reverse creating huge negative base effects in 2H22.
Jan 14 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🇺🇸 Americans expect #inflation to rise 4.9% over the next year, matching the highest since 2008, the Michigan report showed - Bloomberg
*They expect prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, the most since 2011. 3/4 of consumers ranked #inflation, compared with unemployment, as the more serious problem facing the nation. Given that inflation's impact is regressive, the Sentiment Index ⬇ 9.4% among households with total incomes <$100K, but ⬆ 5.7% among households with incomes >$100K.
Jan 6 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Latest minutes show that #Fed policymakers look more concerned about #inflation, in line with recent speeches from Powell. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | In my opinion, the risk of a wage-price spiral is now real with low-income families asking for more wage increases.
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (1) | PCE #inflation rose 5.0% YoY (highest since Nov. 1990; vs 4.4% prior).
*Core was 4.1% YoY (highest since Jan. 1991; vs an upwardly revised 3.7% prior).
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (2) | FOMC minutes revealed that once again, doves were completely wrong about #inflation noting that “the most sizable price increases may have already occurred.”
*Link (p.8): federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Nov 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest data confirmed that growth will accelerate in 4Q as the latest wave of Covid-19 reached a peak in mid-Sep.
*Oct. figures suggest that households started using accumulated excess savings (since Feb. 2020).
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. in late Aug./beginning of Sep. and affected activity in 3Q.
*Therefore, a positive normalization is expected in 4Q as suggested by the rebound in Industrial Production (especially the Mining component).
*Chart from Bloomberg ⬇
Nov 25, 2021 • 7 tweets • 7 min read
🇨🇳 #China#Macro Update (1) | Economic data point to a slowdown and even a contraction in several sectors in November.
*Restrictions linked to #Covid_19 affected activity (same as August) as suggested by Airportia data.
🇨🇳 #China#Macro Update (2) | On a YoY basis, the expected slowdown in Nov. could be amplified by a calendar effect given that October figures were artificially boosted by one more business day (compared to Oct. 2020).
🇨🇳 Chinese mainland reports 46 new confirmed COVID-19 cases - CGTN
*20 cases in Fujian province, including 19 in Putian city, authorities said Sunday.
🇨🇳 #China Sends Health Team to #Fujian Province After Covid Cases - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🌎 It's time to start a new tweetstorm to monitor global trade rebound, which should be larger than exp. in 2021.
*The drag from #Covid_19 restrictions in 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 will ease.
*Uncertainty linked to trade tensions ⬇.
*Leading sectors (semis and autos) already point to a sharp ⬆.
🇯🇵 #Japan | In January, the value of overseas shipments climbed 6.4% YoY (fastest since Oct. 2018), rising for a second month and picking up from December’s 2% pace.