Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
🇫🇷 Chief Economist, Strategist | PhD | Bloomberg Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 (2012-2020), 🇪🇺 (2015-2019) and 🇨🇳 Economy (2017-2020) | RT ≠ endorsement
otaria123 Profile picture Roman Korobchan Profile picture Adrian S Profile picture Nelson Profile picture I am so damn confused this year Profile picture 11 added to My Authors
17 Feb
🌎 It's time to start a new tweetstorm to monitor global trade rebound, which should be larger than exp. in 2021.
*The drag from #Covid_19 restrictions in 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 will ease.
*Uncertainty linked to trade tensions ⬇.
*Leading sectors (semis and autos) already point to a sharp ⬆.
🇯🇵 #Japan | In January, the value of overseas shipments climbed 6.4% YoY (fastest since Oct. 2018), rising for a second month and picking up from December’s 2% pace. Image
🇯🇵 #Japan's exports, machine orders pick up as global demand recovers - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-jap…
Read 7 tweets
8 Jul 20
🇺🇸 U.S. High Frequency Data Suggest That Economic Recovery Has Stalled Amid #Virus Resurgence
*Link: ⚠ bit.ly/2O9mnT4Image
🇺🇸 As Businesses Reopen, Many Americans Plan to Spend Less - Bloomberg
*More than 40% of adults say they’ll cut back on some of the very discretionary spending needed by struggling retailers.
*Link: bloom.bg/2AGmuCw Image
🇺🇸 Five Real-Time Charts Show Signs U.S. Economic #Recovery Is Faltering - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/3flL7nh ImageImage
Read 21 tweets
24 Apr 20
🌎 As I repeated (bit.ly/2Vzbui8; bit.ly/2Ks0P2g; bit.ly/3awqL7l; bit.ly/3eMEWsn), economists have been too optimistic about global GDP prospects. Image
🇺🇸 #SPX | Analysts have been also too optimistic concerning earnings expectations (bit.ly/3bAcAj1).

🇺🇸 #SPX | Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 Index’s 12-month forward earnings per share estimate has slumped 19% and is bound to deteriorate further as business and economic activity have slowed amid the coronavirus outbreak - Bloomberg Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr 20
🌎 It's now time to create a new tweetstorm more focused on 2Q impact.

🇩🇪 #GERMANY TO EXTEND CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS TO END-EASTER: NTV
🇩🇪 #GERMANY EXTENDS NATIONWIDE LOCKDOWN UNTIL APRIL 19 - BBG
Read 56 tweets
8 Mar 20
#OOTT | 🇸🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸🌎 The end of the diplomatic alliance between #Saudi Arabia and #Russia will have significant consequences:
#Oil prices are likely to remain low longer than expected which would be positive for advanced economies mainly net importers such as Eurozone countries.

➡ Meanwhile, #oil exporting countries will be forced to cut public spending in order to balance budgets.
➡ Latest indications suggest that #Saudi is now ready to cut prices dramatically and fight both #Russia and U.S. exporters in terms of market share, which implies that U.S. exports should decline soon.

Read 35 tweets
18 Feb 20
🇸🇬 🇨🇳 #SINGAPORE PLANS 2 PACKAGES, TOTALING S$5.6B, TO SUPPORT ECONOMY - BBG
*SINGAPORE PLANS S$800M FROM BUDGET TO COUNTER VIRUS EFFECTS
*SINGAPORE TO GRANT CORPORATE INCOME TAX REBATE OF 25% FOR 2020
🇰🇷 #SouthKorea's president calls for 'all possible measures' to help virus-hit economy - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇪🇺 #Eurozone ministers discuss fiscal boost options as virus worries weigh - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-eur…
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb 20
🇺🇸 Equities | My understanding of investors' sentiment following multiple discussions:

1/ Reality is that investors are not looking at Macro or Earnings right now. They were trapped last year and most of them don’t want to miss again any upside move.
2/ They remember that SPX increased by ~30% in 2019 despite Global GDP was revised downward by ~0.6ppt and SPX earnings growth was cut by >8%.
3/ The upside mainly came from a dramatic switch in liquidity expectations and the same phenomenom is happening right now with #PBOC relaunching the party worldwide.

Read 8 tweets
27 Jan 20
🇨🇳 #China (1) | The question is no longer if, but how hard, the #coronavirus will damage Chinese economy (and its trading partners) in 1Q20.
🇨🇳 #China (2) | A blockage of 16 cities (~50 million people) coupled with the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday and prohibition for Cos to return to work soon implies that 1Q will fall below 6% for the first time since QoQ figures are recorded.
🇨🇳 #China (3) | The impact will probably broaden from retail sales, tourism/transportation...

Read 93 tweets
24 Jan 20
★ A detailed analysis of the 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #PhaseOne Deal ★

➡ For goods, I used Census Bureau trade data (goods) (bit.ly/2RAtaqd) on U.S. exports to #China and matched them to the list provided in Annex 6.1 (from p.57: bit.ly/3axsY3B).
Categories mentioned in Annex 6.1 point to a relatively limited ❗ set of goods to produce the jump in U.S. (goods) exports (+$63.9B for 2020 and +$98.2B for 2021 compared to 2017 baseline). Image
In 2017, U.S. exports to #China in the selected categories totalled $78.8B, far less than the $129.8B for total U.S. exports to China, implying that it will be harder for #Beijing to fulfill its promises. Image
Read 31 tweets
22 Jan 20
🇺🇸 Boeing Sees 737 Max Return Slipping to Midyear, Adding to Strain - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸 As I expected, Boeing crisis will keep affecting U.S. #manufacturing activity ⬇

businessinsider.com/trump-china-ph…
🇺🇸 #Boeing Mulls Another Cut to 787 Output in New Threat to Cash - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
17 Jan 20
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Chinese Commitments

1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).

2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
3/ To avoid currency manipulation.

4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.

5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.

6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Full Texts En/Cn

#China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/3aivKcX
Read 28 tweets
17 Dec 19
🌎 The drag from global trade of goods (in volume) will be weaker in 2020.

➡ Based on CPB data, after (probably) contracting in 2019, global trade of goods (in volume) will grow again in 2020 ❗ (but at a slower pace than Global GDP)
🌎 Signs coming from the two leading sectors namely #semiconductors and #autos suggest that downward pressures will keep easing in the coming months.
🌎 It can be explained by several factors:
*Positive base effects
*Combined easing of monetary policy and trade tensions (especially U.S./China) for the first time in 7 quarters.
*Fiscal stimulus (China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, etc)

Read 62 tweets
9 Dec 19
🇨🇳 #China 2020 GDP growth target seen to be set at ‘around 6 per cent’ at top economic policy meeting - SCMP
*Link: bit.ly/2LAQulD
🇨🇳 #China advisers warn government against major stimulus to keep economy on track - SCMP
scmp.com/economy/china-…
🇨🇳 #China should slash business tax rates if it wants to compete with the United States, study says - SCMP
*Link: bit.ly/36egTgW
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec 19
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 #China Hints U.S. Blacklist Imminent in Threat to #Trade Talks - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2LhrCPP

@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Here’s What Happens to Markets If U.S. Tariffs on #China Kick in Dec. 15 - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 #Huawei plans to shift research center to #Canada from U.S.: Globe and Mail - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Read 219 tweets
24 Nov 19
@niubi 🇨🇳 🌎 🇺🇸 #China to Raise Penalties on #IP Rights Violations - Bloomberg
*Guidelines (Chinese): bit.ly/35oQjRM

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Another reason for #Trump administration to reach a partial trade deal with #China soon.

@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US moves closer to resuming chicken exports to #China as #Beijing approves processing plants - SCMP
scmp.com/economy/china-…
Read 218 tweets
18 Sep 19
🇺🇸 #Fed (1) | Given that recent data surprised to the upside and didn’t point to an immediate recession, it would be difficult for the Fed to start an "easing cycle" (necessary to cut rates by 50bps). Image
🇺🇸 #Fed (2) | However, global economic policy uncertainty (especially trade) and geopolitical tensions are still supporting the “risk-management” approach, synonym of a 25bps cut.
*Link: bit.ly/2lC4p0I ImageImage
🇺🇸 #Fed (3) | Latest inflation figures and indicators linked to wage pressures also remained somehow robust, which likely implies another wave of hawkish dissents (Rosengren & George).

Read 11 tweets
7 Aug 19
🇩🇪 It confirms that German GDP likely ⬇ in 2Q while proxies pointed to the risk of another ⬇ in 3Q (technical recession).

This scenario would add pressure on #Germany to launch a stimulus package to support growth at both the national and 🇪🇺 level.

🇪🇺 Trichet Sees Next Crisis if #ECB doesn’t get Help - Handelsblatt
handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldp…
🇩🇪 #Germany’s economy needs a fiscal boost - FT
ft.com/content/5ea7db…
Read 67 tweets
20 Jul 19
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Mnuchin, Kudlow Invite U.S. #Tech Giants to Discuss #Huawei Ban - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 #China, US said to be wrangling over text before #trade talks can resume - SCMP
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #Technology Supplier to U.S. Police Agencies Bans Chinese Drones - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 672 tweets
29 Jun 19
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (1) | After Trump and Xi met on Saturday, the two countries plan to restart trade talks. Following his request to hold a conversation with Xi, Trump had to make 3 concessions ❗ to restart discussions and get a vague Chinese commitment to buy US agricultural products.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (2) | The US compromises came despite, ahead of the meeting, Xi Jinping spared no opportunity to paint the U.S. as the bad guy in #China’s spiraling trade conflict, while avoiding the provocative step of naming Trump personally - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (3) | Looking at the details, #Trump told reporters 1/ he wouldn’t put additional tariffs on #China for the “time being” (until there is progress in negotiations)…
Read 12 tweets
25 Jun 19
🇨🇳 #China | #Beijing orders brokerages to lift fundraising quota, eases liquidity for smaller financial firms - SCMP
scmp.com/business/banki…
🇨🇳 As of June 21st, monthly local government bond issuance in #China exceeded CNY594B, total issuance for the month may hit CNY800B (a record high of the year in June) - China Daily
chinadaily.com.cn/a/201906/25/WS…
🇨🇳 #China Economy Showing Modest Improvement in 2Q, Beige Book Says - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 172 tweets
10 Jun 19
🇨🇳 #China central bank says will offer targeted liquidity support to small and mid-sized banks - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇨🇳 #China Expands Use of Local Government Debt in Stimulus Push - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 Chinese Regulators Try to Calm Fears of a Funding Squeeze - WSJ
wsj.com/articles/chine…
Read 165 tweets