Thread by @charles_gaba

📣 A *LOT* of people are ripping this new @NYTimes piece by @benjmueller and Eleanor Lutz for not mentioning, even in passing, the partisan gap in vaccinations & COVID deaths or the coordinated anti-vaxx campaign by the GOP/FOX News behind the headline. 1/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Now, maybe they were told not to mention that, or perhaps an overzealous editor removed it. I don't know what the policy is at the Times these days.

.@benjmueller follows me on Twitter, but he hasn't actually tweeted anything since mid-November, so in case he sees this... 2/

...here's the 2-dose vaxx rate of all 3,144 counties in the 50 U.S. states +DC, broken out by 2020 Trump vote.

For stats folks: The R^2 & slope have *both* climbed steadily since the day COVID vaccines were made available to all adults. 3/
acasignups.net/22/02/02/weekl…

...and here's the COVID death rate since 6/30/21 in each of the 3,144 counties in bar graph format.

It's still over 3.7x higher in the reddest decile than the bluest (and even that's down from 6x higher back in October):
acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…

What about by *vaccination rate*? Well, here's what the death rate looks like by 2-dose vaccination rate since 6/30/21. The death rate is 3.7x higher in the least-vaccinated tenth of the country than the most-vaccinated tenth.

Yes, it's almost a mirror image of the prior graph.

What does this mean in terms of raw, cynical electoral impact? I'll be posting updated estimates for all 50 states soon, but the short version is:

--Yes, more GOP voters are likely dying than Dem voters;
--No, that probably still won't make much difference in most cases.

⚠️ AS PROMISED: The Elephant in the Room, now Age-Adjusted:
acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…