📣 A *LOT* of people are ripping this new @NYTimes piece by @benjmueller and Eleanor Lutz for not mentioning, even in passing, the partisan gap in vaccinations & COVID deaths or the coordinated anti-vaxx campaign by the GOP/FOX News behind the headline. 1/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Now, maybe they were told not to mention that, or perhaps an overzealous editor removed it. I don't know what the policy is at the Times these days.

.@benjmueller follows me on Twitter, but he hasn't actually tweeted anything since mid-November, so in case he sees this... 2/
...here's the 2-dose vaxx rate of all 3,144 counties in the 50 U.S. states +DC, broken out by 2020 Trump vote.

For stats folks: The R^2 & slope have *both* climbed steadily since the day COVID vaccines were made available to all adults. 3/
acasignups.net/22/02/02/weekl…
...and here's the COVID death rate since 6/30/21 in each of the 3,144 counties in bar graph format.

It's still over 3.7x higher in the reddest decile than the bluest (and even that's down from 6x higher back in October):
acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…
What about by *vaccination rate*? Well, here's what the death rate looks like by 2-dose vaccination rate since 6/30/21. The death rate is 3.7x higher in the least-vaccinated tenth of the country than the most-vaccinated tenth.

Yes, it's almost a mirror image of the prior graph.
What does this mean in terms of raw, cynical electoral impact? I'll be posting updated estimates for all 50 states soon, but the short version is:

--Yes, more GOP voters are likely dying than Dem voters;
--No, that probably still won't make much difference in most cases.
⚠️ AS PROMISED: The Elephant in the Room, now Age-Adjusted:
acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…

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More from @charles_gaba

Feb 3
📣📣 CHALLENGE ACCEPTED: The Elephant in the Room, now Age-Adjusted:
acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…
If you estimated how many Trump/Biden voters have died of COVID since the 2020 election based on the national popular vote, you'd assume that the Biden toll was ~4.4 points higher since he won the popular vote by 4.4 points nationally.

HOWEVER, that's clearly not the case. 2/
If you adjust this by the 2020 election results at the *state or county* level, it comes out ranging between ~6K more Biden voters to ~17K more Trump voters having died since then.

HOWEVER, that doesn't account for age. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
📣 THREAD: Earlier today @PaulKrugman linked to a post of mine from December which showed how the #DeltaVariant ravaged Red America for 6 months. 1/
acasignups.net/22/02/01/reque…
In the post, I noted that in June 2021, the COVID death rate in the reddest decile of the U.S. was "only" 43% higher than in the bluest decile, but by August it was running an astonishing 7.3x higher in the reddest 10th of the country than the bluest 10th: 2/
For the full 6-month period (June - December), the death rate in the reddest decile averaged around 5.8x higher than in the bluest decile.

More recently I noted that the #OmicronVariant is a whole new chapter, with case rates running higher in *blue* counties than red ones... 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
🚨 If you’ve seen videos of MI GOP Senate/Governor candidates talking about committing election fraud, murdering poll workers & telling rape victims they should feel grateful, perhaps you should help re-elect @gretchenwhitmer, @JocelynBenson & @dananessel?
secure.actblue.com/donate/miblue2…
If you haven’t seen the videos yet, here’s the first…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: Six weeks into #Omicron, it's still a new ballgame...but case rates are already reverting to form:
acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…
As I've been expecting, while #Omicron slammed the urban blue centers of the U.S. first, it's now started shifting back towards the rural red parts of the country.

What's remarkable about this graph is how closely the partisan & vaxx rate measures hew to each other over time: Image
FWIW, here's what the same graph looks like when you use June 30th as the starting point. Unfortunately I haven't plugged in the vaxx-rate lines yet, but trust me, they'd hew pretty closely to the red/blue lines here as well. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
📣📣📣 Weekly Update: County-level #COVID19 vaccination levels by Partisan Lean (now w/boosters!): acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…
⚠️ America in One Image, updated thru 1/30/22: Image
Stats Nerds: Yes, the R^2 continues to increase: Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 30
📣 Head's Up: This week I'll be re-running my partisan COVID death rate estimates again, but with *age* factored in.

Should be interesting to see how this compares w/my previous "just shift the results red 20% to account for GOP voters being older" spitball.
Note: The data will be as official/concrete as possible (based on data from the CDC, Census Bureau, FEC, etc), but the one factor I'm debating is which age-based 2020 exit poll source to use.

Pew has a good *national* study but I need it for each state. Suggestions welcome.
For instance, in Alabama, here's NY Times, CBS, ABC & CNN.
Read 9 tweets

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