📣📣 CHALLENGE ACCEPTED: The Elephant in the Room, now Age-Adjusted:
acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…
If you estimated how many Trump/Biden voters have died of COVID since the 2020 election based on the national popular vote, you'd assume that the Biden toll was ~4.4 points higher since he won the popular vote by 4.4 points nationally.

HOWEVER, that's clearly not the case. 2/
If you adjust this by the 2020 election results at the *state or county* level, it comes out ranging between ~6K more Biden voters to ~17K more Trump voters having died since then.

HOWEVER, that doesn't account for age. 3/
In this latest update, I put an absurd amount of work using estimates from the CDC & Census Bureau, adjusted by 2020 National Election Pool Exit Poll data by Edison Research & A.P. VoteCast to adjust the results by age group. 4/
It's important to note that EXIT POLLS HAVE SERIOUS PROBLEMS, and this was especially the case in 2020.

However, I don't know of any other comprehensive, state-level source for estimating 2020 election results by age group. If you do, let me know. 5/
wired.com/story/the-pre-…
HAVING SAID THAT, when adjusted by age, as far as I can tell, somewhere between 237K - 285K Trump voters have died of COVID since 11/04/20, while somewhere between 167K - 214K Biden voters have.

That's a range of between 11 - 70% more Trump voters than Biden voters to date. 6/
Having said that, I doubt this will impact more than a handful of very close races at either the state or local levels. As always, this clip from the underrated film "Class Action" explains why: 7/
Put simply, GOP/FOX leadership have made an actuarial calculation that sacrificing several hundred thousand of their own voters (mostly in deep red districts where it won't matter anyway) is a small price to pay for dragging down Dem/Biden approval enough to flip Congress. /END

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More from @charles_gaba

Feb 2
📣 A *LOT* of people are ripping this new @NYTimes piece by @benjmueller and Eleanor Lutz for not mentioning, even in passing, the partisan gap in vaccinations & COVID deaths or the coordinated anti-vaxx campaign by the GOP/FOX News behind the headline. 1/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Now, maybe they were told not to mention that, or perhaps an overzealous editor removed it. I don't know what the policy is at the Times these days.

.@benjmueller follows me on Twitter, but he hasn't actually tweeted anything since mid-November, so in case he sees this... 2/
...here's the 2-dose vaxx rate of all 3,144 counties in the 50 U.S. states +DC, broken out by 2020 Trump vote.

For stats folks: The R^2 & slope have *both* climbed steadily since the day COVID vaccines were made available to all adults. 3/
acasignups.net/22/02/02/weekl…
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
📣 THREAD: Earlier today @PaulKrugman linked to a post of mine from December which showed how the #DeltaVariant ravaged Red America for 6 months. 1/
acasignups.net/22/02/01/reque…
In the post, I noted that in June 2021, the COVID death rate in the reddest decile of the U.S. was "only" 43% higher than in the bluest decile, but by August it was running an astonishing 7.3x higher in the reddest 10th of the country than the bluest 10th: 2/
For the full 6-month period (June - December), the death rate in the reddest decile averaged around 5.8x higher than in the bluest decile.

More recently I noted that the #OmicronVariant is a whole new chapter, with case rates running higher in *blue* counties than red ones... 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
🚨 If you’ve seen videos of MI GOP Senate/Governor candidates talking about committing election fraud, murdering poll workers & telling rape victims they should feel grateful, perhaps you should help re-elect @gretchenwhitmer, @JocelynBenson & @dananessel?
secure.actblue.com/donate/miblue2…
If you haven’t seen the videos yet, here’s the first…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: Six weeks into #Omicron, it's still a new ballgame...but case rates are already reverting to form:
acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…
As I've been expecting, while #Omicron slammed the urban blue centers of the U.S. first, it's now started shifting back towards the rural red parts of the country.

What's remarkable about this graph is how closely the partisan & vaxx rate measures hew to each other over time: Image
FWIW, here's what the same graph looks like when you use June 30th as the starting point. Unfortunately I haven't plugged in the vaxx-rate lines yet, but trust me, they'd hew pretty closely to the red/blue lines here as well. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
📣📣📣 Weekly Update: County-level #COVID19 vaccination levels by Partisan Lean (now w/boosters!): acasignups.net/22/01/31/weekl…
⚠️ America in One Image, updated thru 1/30/22: Image
Stats Nerds: Yes, the R^2 continues to increase: Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 30
📣 Head's Up: This week I'll be re-running my partisan COVID death rate estimates again, but with *age* factored in.

Should be interesting to see how this compares w/my previous "just shift the results red 20% to account for GOP voters being older" spitball.
Note: The data will be as official/concrete as possible (based on data from the CDC, Census Bureau, FEC, etc), but the one factor I'm debating is which age-based 2020 exit poll source to use.

Pew has a good *national* study but I need it for each state. Suggestions welcome.
For instance, in Alabama, here's NY Times, CBS, ABC & CNN.
Read 9 tweets

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