Thread by @charles_gaba

📣📣 CHALLENGE ACCEPTED: The Elephant in the Room, now Age-Adjusted:
acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…

If you estimated how many Trump/Biden voters have died of COVID since the 2020 election based on the national popular vote, you'd assume that the Biden toll was ~4.4 points higher since he won the popular vote by 4.4 points nationally.

HOWEVER, that's clearly not the case. 2/

If you adjust this by the 2020 election results at the *state or county* level, it comes out ranging between ~6K more Biden voters to ~17K more Trump voters having died since then.

HOWEVER, that doesn't account for age. 3/

In this latest update, I put an absurd amount of work using estimates from the CDC & Census Bureau, adjusted by 2020 National Election Pool Exit Poll data by Edison Research & A.P. VoteCast to adjust the results by age group. 4/

It's important to note that EXIT POLLS HAVE SERIOUS PROBLEMS, and this was especially the case in 2020.

However, I don't know of any other comprehensive, state-level source for estimating 2020 election results by age group. If you do, let me know. 5/
wired.com/story/the-pre-…

HAVING SAID THAT, when adjusted by age, as far as I can tell, somewhere between 237K - 285K Trump voters have died of COVID since 11/04/20, while somewhere between 167K - 214K Biden voters have.

That's a range of between 11 - 70% more Trump voters than Biden voters to date. 6/

Having said that, I doubt this will impact more than a handful of very close races at either the state or local levels. As always, this clip from the underrated film "Class Action" explains why: 7/

Put simply, GOP/FOX leadership have made an actuarial calculation that sacrificing several hundred thousand of their own voters (mostly in deep red districts where it won't matter anyway) is a small price to pay for dragging down Dem/Biden approval enough to flip Congress. /END