Thread by @_scottreid

I see people saying the #CPC has shown how divided it's become and now we'll witness a rollicking battle for the soul of the party. That's not how I see it. That battle is over and won. I think Conservatives know exactly who they are and what they stand for. #cdnpoli

The #CPC will be a dedicated populist movement, harder-edged, more accommodating of online demagoguery, misinformation and feeding people's grievances back at them. They'll talk about the Harper coalition but it owes a lot more to the modern GOP - the DeSantises of the world #CPC

This party will not permit itself to be defined as hard-right or SoCon - but it will be much less uncomfortable with and far more inviting of those elements. They won't front-window them but they won't shame them either and they'll be quick to defend them. #CPC

They'll also look for someone within this mix who possesses the raw political skills O'Toole did not. A comfortable populist who can carry a message, turn social media into a sword, raise lots of money and who will be unblinking in the face of a fight without flip-flopping. #cpc

For all these reasons I don't think it will even be much of a race. Yes, a few will toss in their hat. Yes, Leslyn Lewis or another SoCon champion will compete. But I think the race will be quick and overwhelmingly dominated by Poilievre who will, IMO, win handily #cpc

As #CPC Leader Poilievre will be immediately and inevitably polarizing. A magnet for the angry, aggrieved and Trudeau hating. He'll hammer on cost-of-living, economic issues with a culture war overlay. And he won't hesitate to use misinformation like a jack knife. #cpc

All that could backfire badly and hem the CPC into a narrow, nasty corner. But make no mistake, Poilievre has acres of game. It would be a big error to dismiss or underestimate him. He will bring fire. Could very easily torch himself in the blaze. But he'll light shit up #cpc

FTR I don't like his brand of politics and I don't think it will do the country any good. It would be enormously satisfying to run a campaign against, lead him into revealing himself and defining the other way. But he will be much tougher to take out than Scheer or O'Toole #cpc