1/ Been an awful week for #Tories in Westminster but in real elections in the real world #Labour has been crashing and burning. OK, so local by elections aren't individually representative of national trends...
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140
2/ But taken together, the results show a clear swing AGAINST #Labour that isn't being picked up in opinion polls between them.
If you have to choose, go by the actual results cast in real elections.
If you have to choose, go by the actual results cast in real elections.
3/ How to explain the discrepancy? Could be that a lot of the Tory "don't knows" who've given #Starmer his lead are in fact voting Tory when they turn out. Of course, young people are traditionally more likely to vote #Labour and less likely to vote in by-elections. That said...
4/ #Starmer's Labour has been going out of its way to alienate younger more Liberal voters to court older Conservative ones, so these results should be sending panic through Southside. Another factor at play is getting out the vote...
5/ Lots of longtime activists have been expelled, resigned in disgust or are sitting on their hands. And #Labour has let go of many staff. It is struggling to field candidates let alone mobilise the electorate. This is a bigger problem for #Labour...
6/... than it is for the #Tories who can afford lots of direct mail, newspaper adds and paid organisers. Labour's broke again and dependent on a dwindling number of activists. Finally, there's the Westminster angle...
7/ It's revealing that the establishment outrage is directed against #Johnson for accusing #Starmer of failing to prosecute #savile as DPP, not at the CPS whose decision still hasn't been fully explained...
8/ We know #Starmer was not the reviewing lawyer. We don't know that this means he had no oversight or involvement in the decision (a point that has not been convincingly rebutted). Yet the msm is dismissing the issue and aids are resigning over #Johnson's raising it.
9/ Take a step back and consider how this looks to the public at large. It looks like the establishment circling the wagons to defend itself against #Johnson, who is inadvertently (and wrongly) being cast as the anti establishment challenger...
10/ would hazard a guess that the general public look less kindly on the man who headed up the DPP when it chose not to prosecute #savile than the man who - however self servingly - drew attention to the issue. #Johnson should be gone yet he remains. The...
11/ establishment outrage over his commitments regarding #Starmer and #savile perhaps suggest a growing fear that they have cut through. #Starmer has been damaged and #Johnson limps on. It's been a bad week for both but worse for #Starmer than #Johnson as election results show.
12/ The establishment has a #Johnson problem. He is an explicitly corrupt, shambolic liar. They wouldn't have an issue with this if he was less bare-faced about it. But his behaviour draws too much attention to the institutional corruption of the British state. Worse...
13/ #Johnson, to serve his own ego and save his career has shown himself willing to commit a cardinal sin for the establishment: airing dirty linen in public. He has put his own interests above those of his class and the reputation of the UK state & is wreaking havoc...
14/... #Johnson's tendency towards demagoguery has long been evident, even before he became PM. The establishment thought they could harness his excesses for their own ends. In seeking to defeat #Corbyn, the establishment unleashed a monster it didn't fully understand...
15/ and of which it has lost control. There are major dangers posed to the state and us as its subjects by the open normalisation of corruption and the cult of personality capable of forming around #Johnson if he survives and goes on to win the next election. However...
16/... That the full truth about the decision not to prosecute #savile remains hidden suggests that the status quo is a nightmare too. We live in a country where one of the most evil men imaginable was left free to perpetrate horrifying crimes with impunity...
17/17 #Johnson isn't just a grotesque parody of the establishment. He's it's honest reflection.
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