NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN: Both the R^2 and slope are now well over 0.5/-0.5 and both continue to inch higher every week.
Translation: The partisan vaccination gap continues to *increase* over time.
WHITHER BOOSTERS? Same pattern, although not nearly as high a correlation or slope yet, since you have to have gotten your 2nd shot 5 months ago to get boosted in the first place, so even if every remaining holdout were to get vaxxed *today* it'd be 6mo+ before they could do so.
As of yesterday:
--13 counties >90% w/2nd shot (451K residents)
--48 counties >80% w/2nd shot (13.9M residents)
--187 counties >70% w/2nd shot (73.2M residents)
At the other end:
--There's 25 counties which STILL have vaccinated less than 25% of their populations.
--There's 15 counties w/more than 100,000 residents which still have vaccinated less than 40% of their populations.
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It's been another 3 months, so I figured it's a good time to again break out COVID county-level, 2-dose, total population vaccination rates for all 50 states.
Again, I use CDC data for most states, w/state health dept. data for a few. 1/
ALABAMA: Fairly weak partisan correlation, mainly because the vaccination rate sucks pretty much EVERYWHERE. It does form an odd snake shape, though.
The graph on the right (w/out background graphics/etc) includes children 5-11 only.
ALASKA: AK has always been all over the place on COVID vaccination rates. Bristol Bay has supposedly vaxxed *over* 100% of its population which is impossible; this is caused by a variety of factors including error margin etc. I've set a max cap of 98% for any county's vaxx rate.
@RachelBitecofer Well, I haven't looked at 5-11 specifically, but it's pretty clear here. Notice how *both* the R^2 (correlation) *and* slope stopped climbing/leveled off around September, stayed flat for 2 months, and then started climbing again right after Thanksgiving?
If you estimated how many Trump/Biden voters have died of COVID since the 2020 election based on the national popular vote, you'd assume that the Biden toll was ~4.4 points higher since he won the popular vote by 4.4 points nationally.
HOWEVER, that's clearly not the case. 2/
If you adjust this by the 2020 election results at the *state or county* level, it comes out ranging between ~6K more Biden voters to ~17K more Trump voters having died since then.
📣 A *LOT* of people are ripping this new @NYTimes piece by @benjmueller and Eleanor Lutz for not mentioning, even in passing, the partisan gap in vaccinations & COVID deaths or the coordinated anti-vaxx campaign by the GOP/FOX News behind the headline. 1/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Now, maybe they were told not to mention that, or perhaps an overzealous editor removed it. I don't know what the policy is at the Times these days.
.@benjmueller follows me on Twitter, but he hasn't actually tweeted anything since mid-November, so in case he sees this... 2/
...here's the 2-dose vaxx rate of all 3,144 counties in the 50 U.S. states +DC, broken out by 2020 Trump vote.
For stats folks: The R^2 & slope have *both* climbed steadily since the day COVID vaccines were made available to all adults. 3/ acasignups.net/22/02/02/weekl…
In the post, I noted that in June 2021, the COVID death rate in the reddest decile of the U.S. was "only" 43% higher than in the bluest decile, but by August it was running an astonishing 7.3x higher in the reddest 10th of the country than the bluest 10th: 2/
For the full 6-month period (June - December), the death rate in the reddest decile averaged around 5.8x higher than in the bluest decile.
More recently I noted that the #OmicronVariant is a whole new chapter, with case rates running higher in *blue* counties than red ones... 3/